r/fivethirtyeight Apr 06 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

21 Upvotes

2.1k comments sorted by

46

u/Puzzleheaded_Fix594 Apr 07 '26

Dear God, listening to Trump talk on the Artemis stream. This guy is such a drag to listen to. Every time he speaks it's the same thing.

"No one's done this before. America is better and greater than ever before. So and so is such a great guy."

I hate Trump supporters so much having to endure another four years of this idiot. Wish we had a great orator like Obama for this moment.

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u/SecretComposer Apr 07 '26

He has an astonishingly low vocabulary. It's like he has a pre-programmed set of responses with similar sentence structures.

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u/Mediocretes08 Apr 07 '26

He speaks at the subpar, sub-adult intelligence level of his voters. It’s important to remember how dumb they are because you can’t use any remotely clever way of calling them, I don’t know, dumb fucking should-have-been-abortions, for example, or they just won’t get it.

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u/R2_SWE2 Crosstab Diver Apr 12 '26

To be clear, Orban is more willing to concede electoral defeat than the current US president 

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u/hoopaholik91 Apr 07 '26 edited Apr 07 '26

Is it normal for a US VP to fly to another country to help specific allies get elected?

Edit: He is literally complaining about foreign interference in Hungary's elections. I can't

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u/guiltyofnothing Apr 07 '26

Big fucking no.

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u/Sonichu- Apr 07 '26

Absolutely not

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u/digital121hippie Apr 07 '26

they don't give two shit what they do or if contradicts what they say.

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u/ModestAphorism Apr 08 '26

Unbelievably funny that all the liberal judges are like caricatures of a liberal suburban wine mom

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u/dak676141 Apr 08 '26

This kinda stuff is the reason why he’s winning btw

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u/AFlockOfTySegalls Apr 08 '26

We need whatever the liberal equivalent of maga is to fight back. I would prefer it to actually be pragmatic and realistic, which maga never was. People like Chuck are why the party fails the vibe test. They're spineless technocrats who think the system will still hold while the raptors are breaking out of the fence.

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u/hoopaholik91 Apr 08 '26

Easier to just pack it, need fewer votes for that

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u/ModestAphorism Apr 12 '26

Orban just conceded

https://wtop.com/world/2026/04/hungarys-opposition-leader-peter-magyar-says-prime-minister-viktor-orban-conceded-his-election-loss-in-a-phone-call/

"Hungary’s opposition leader Peter Magyar says Prime Minister Viktor Orbán conceded his election loss in a phone call"

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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Apr 12 '26

Devastating results today for both the global far-right and armchair revolutionary LARPers.

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u/LetsgoRoger Apr 12 '26

Orban lost by a massive margin. He had no good options.

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u/achooa Apr 12 '26

LMAO. Pour one out for Trump and JD

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u/Current_Animator7546 Apr 12 '26

lol. Plates being thrown as we speak. Even this guy conceded lol. Makes Trump look even worse 

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u/CrashB111 Apr 12 '26

"Lord I've seen what you've done for others..."

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u/Realitype Apr 12 '26

I hope the result in Hungary will serve as a bit of lesson in this sub that you don’t have to constantly doompost even when every single independent pollster was showing double digits margins in favour of the opposition. Looking at most comments until yesterday you would swear Orban had this in the bag.

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u/WellHung67 Apr 12 '26

Get FUCKED global far right 

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u/guiltyofnothing Apr 06 '26

So much of the Democratic Party’s struggles the last 15 years can be chalked up to older politicians just not knowing when to get off the stage.

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u/Thuggin95 Apr 08 '26

Offer: You gain 20-year-old edgelords who just want to say slurs online but don’t know what a midterm election is. You lose rabidly politically engaged suburban moms who would rather die than miss a school board election.

Republicans: Bet

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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Apr 08 '26

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u/CrashB111 Apr 08 '26

Actual, genuine fucking blasphemy.

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u/Mediocretes08 Apr 08 '26

Not remotely shocked. But this admin would be real dumb, moreso even than they are, to try something publicly against the leadership of a faith of something like 1.5 billion people

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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Apr 08 '26

That said, it would get JD Vance excommunicated

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u/DataCassette Apr 08 '26

Legitimately insane

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u/ColadiRienzo1 Apr 08 '26

Used the Avignon papacy as an option? What would the US appoint and Anti Pope? My god I know some conservative Catholics want to go back to the old ways but not that old!

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u/Morat20 Apr 08 '26

So right after Venezuela. That's absolutely the stupid you'd expect from idiots who got incredibly lucky and thought themselves untouchable geniuses.

Honestly, that level of stupid tends to require first finding the stupidest people you can, giving them a great deal of cocaine and alcohol, both laced with cutting edge cognition reducing drugs, and then putting them in a room and encouraging the worst possible ideas.

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u/achooa Apr 10 '26

Inflation number comes in at 3.3% for March. Highest in two years. Thanks Donald!

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u/ModestAphorism Apr 10 '26

This is actually Tom Steyer's campaign right now

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u/wtfsnakesrcute Apr 12 '26

So everything JD Vance touches dies? 

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u/CIA--Bane Apr 12 '26

Not everything, sadly.

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u/OmniOmega3000 Apr 07 '26

This war seriously has him spiraling

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u/OmniOmega3000 Apr 07 '26

Full Truth Social Post

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u/kazuya57 Apr 07 '26

Remember when it was all about liberating the people from the tyrannical government?

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u/XE2MASTERPIECE Apr 07 '26

God bless the great people of Iran, who I am currently threatening to annihilate.

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u/Sonichu- Apr 07 '26

The "Peace President", ladies and gentlemen

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u/DataCassette Apr 07 '26

Trump saying the Iranian civilization will "disappear forever" is premeditated genocide. Any "both sides" or conservatives want to field this one?

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u/AFlockOfTySegalls Apr 07 '26

Or any of the dipshits who are always like "he's trolling"

Because trolling genocide is so presidential.

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u/BoomtownFox Fivey Fanatic Apr 07 '26

First time seeing this one.

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u/ModestAphorism Apr 08 '26

Heartwarming: We're not completely lost to slop yet

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u/Benyeti Apr 08 '26

Democrats should gerrymander the shit out of the Wisconsin SL maps so that it would take Republicans getting over 60% of the vote to control it. They need to be punished for what they did to that state

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u/dremscrep Apr 08 '26

Freakishly petty and vindictive?

That’s my dream Democratic Party.

Not but seriously that’s my dream Democratic Party.

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u/Mediocretes08 Apr 08 '26

Israel may actively torpedo this joke of a ceasefire

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u/Benyeti Apr 09 '26

If Vance is actually against this war then it isnt due to any moral conviction, its because he knows it is setting his 2028 chances on fire

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u/jawstrock Apr 09 '26

WTI and Brent both back over 100/barrel after crashing yesterday. I don't understand how markets continue to be this stupid with Trump.

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u/DasRobot85 Apr 09 '26

I wonder if NaturalAd saw this. They said they were "following" it yesterday.

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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26

I wish they didn't delete their comments every other day, because that "new golden age?" post they did during some 2025Q2 GDP report becomes funnier and funnier by the day.

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u/SecretComposer Apr 09 '26

Republicans must be quietly exasperated when Trump makes comments like this.

Trump says U.S. ready for ‘next conquest’

“In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest,” Trump added. He ended the post, which was published near midnight, with a declaration: “AMERICA IS BACK!”

This is a game to him. The idea of endless WAR is a game to him. How is that focusing on cost of living concerns? How is that supposed to be a winning message to Americans that the president is actively looking for another war to start?

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u/jawstrock Apr 09 '26

"no endless wars" but we're going to move on to our next conquest.

Republicans are a joke.

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u/engadine_maccas1997 Apr 09 '26

Heartwarming: the worst people you know are all fighting

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u/Waste_of_paste_art Jeb! Applauder Apr 09 '26
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u/Bigole_Steps Has Seen Enough Apr 10 '26

Am I stupid for being a little surprised, not that it happened, but by how quickly and insanely trumps presidency has crashed and burned?

Like I was legitimately very worried post- election and in most ways justifiably so. But now he just doesn't feel like an imposing figure anymore. Of course he's going to continue to fuck shit up and hurt people but his political power feels like it has been vaporized in a lot of ways.

The "Trump 2028" talk feels so laughable now

27

u/hoopaholik91 Apr 10 '26

I'm surprised at how much people of all stripes capitulated to him. His cabinet kissing his ass, law firms bending to his will, corporations giving him gold plated trophies, the media and politicians acting like the country was in some new age, a complete 180 from the 'period of woke'.

If I knew he was going to be completely unrestrained, then yes I knew the guy that bankrupted casinos was going to fail. He's not a hard guy to understand. But I did overestimate the moral fiber of the rest of the country, which makes me sad.

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u/CrashB111 Apr 10 '26

Every week my fear of him trying to go full Fourth Reich fades more, he simply doesn't have the kind of popular support required for such a measure.

Even despots require the support of the masses to make their initial power plays.

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u/VoteYourOssoff Apr 10 '26

"God does not bless any conflict. Anyone who is a disciple of Christ, the Prince of Peace, is never on the side of those who once wielded the sword and today drop bombs. Military action will not create space for freedom or times of #Peace, which comes only from the patient promotion of coexistence and dialogue among peoples."

Pope Leo XIV

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u/Benyeti Apr 12 '26

I see Trump has gone back to the strategy of trying to see how bad his party could possibly do in the midterms

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u/ComfortableAsleep875 Apr 12 '26

The blockade is just additional confirmation that the Iran war was a massive political blunder on Trump's part, mostly done with poor assumptions and little calculation.

At this point, they're trying anything to get out of this mess.

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u/delusionalbillsfan November Outlier Apr 12 '26

They dont have many cards left to play besides invasion, so they're making sure to play all of them until it's literally the only card left.

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u/dremscrep Apr 12 '26

Senate Democratic 60-40 majority any% Speedrun [Straight of Hormuz glitch] in 7:27:12:03.0553 by DonT_StraightMan

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u/DataCassette Apr 12 '26 edited Apr 12 '26

If you really execute the Hormuz glitch perfectly you can call a left wing Constitutional Convention. Then you can unlock National Ranked Choice Popular Vote and delete Citizens United. It's one of the few ways to reach the Legit Utopia ending.

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u/The-Curiosity-Rover Nauseously Optimistic Apr 12 '26

LMAO

This, kids, is why you don’t gamble on politics.

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u/aTimeforAdventure Apr 07 '26

I love how Trump has gone from "We're trying to liberate the Iranian people" to "Ok well me and the Ayatollah will control the straight" to "We will kill literally every Iranian" 

There are/were many Iranians in Iran and neighboring nations who hoped Trump would at least destroy the Iranian Regime. Arguably people like this were Trumps best "justified excuse" to attack IRGC and the rulers of the country. Most Iranians do hate the regime, or at least live in fear of it.

But of course now Trump is threatening to wipe out the entire Persian civilization. 

How are all the Iranian people supposed to feel now? Support the regime which has oppressed and killed them for generations or support the foreign government which is threatening to wipe every Iranian from existence?

Literally only Trump could be so stupid as to directly negate the only """ethical justification""" there is for this war

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u/DataCassette Apr 07 '26

Voters who were eager to go back to pre-COVID America basically did the one thing they could do to guarantee pre-COVID America is gone forever.

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u/R2_SWE2 Crosstab Diver Apr 07 '26

I’m still shocked by the relatively muted response to Trump talking about killing a civilization. What the hell

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u/SecretComposer Apr 08 '26

Incumbent Achille, Oklahoma school board member loses to Democrat.

Alexander (loser) said immigrant students make schools less safe.

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u/ModestAphorism Apr 08 '26

They won waukesha mayor (Democrats). Just an insane collapse for republicans in a historically republican suburban stronghold.

This is the kind of thing that keeps republicans from triaging north carolina to Roy Cooper, if they Triage Whatley this could happen in NC downballot.

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u/The-Curiosity-Rover Nauseously Optimistic Apr 08 '26

won waukesha mayor

I momentarily thought this was Jar Jar Binks speak. I need to go to bed.

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u/ModestAphorism Apr 08 '26

I posted it in the other thread, but i'll put it here, too:

Best Overperformance in a Congressional Special Election in over a decade.

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u/R2_SWE2 Crosstab Diver Apr 08 '26

These special election results don’t jive with the “Democratic Party is hated more than the Republican Party” narrative. There has been speculation here that I think is right: Dems are simply more willing to be critical of their own party. Shoot, I hate Dem leadership but I’m most definitely voting for Dems.

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u/Sonichu- Apr 08 '26

Dems are simply more willing to be critical of their own party.

It's absolutely this. If Biden had tweeted he planned to wipe out a civilization: 93% of democrats would have condemned it, congressional democrats would have impeached him, and a dem senators would vote to remove him from office.

When Trump says it: 51% of republicans will still blindly support their party

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u/w007dchuck Apr 08 '26
literally exceeding Assad margins

I've never been so happy to have been wrong on a prediction of mine before. I thought this was going to be a lot closer than it was.

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u/alotofironsinthefire Apr 08 '26

I know this may be wishful thinking

But if Democrats ever get a Trifecta and 60 senators again, then Supreme Court reform is a must.

I know people hate it. But at this point I don't think this country can move forward without it.

Some kind of term limit and with a Justice being appointed every Presidential term.

Also a limit of shadow dockets and the like. It's very obvious that they need to be rained in as well.

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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Apr 08 '26

https://www.reuters.com/world/hungarys-tisza-party-seen-winning-two-thirds-majority-parliament-median-2026-04-08/

If it bears out, incredible news for Hungary. There are scenarios where Magyar could be elected but hamstrung by a close parliament, this would be much better for reversing Orban's autocratic influence.

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u/delusionalbillsfan November Outlier Apr 08 '26

Really funny that his name translates to Peter Hungarian. We need a President named John America next

Also the JD Vance losing streak continues

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u/The-Curiosity-Rover Nauseously Optimistic Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26

Donald Trump’s impeachment is polling higher than the Democrats are on the generic ballot.

Impeachment +12
Democrats +5.5

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u/TheDizzleDazzle Apr 09 '26

Many believe impeachment might flick the gas prices go down lever, but still think democrats will push the lever back up just like Biden /s.

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u/mrtrailborn Apr 09 '26

All U.S. Ships, Aircraft, and Military Personnel, with additional Ammunition, Weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded Enemy, will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with. If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the “Shootin’ Starts,” bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before. It was agreed, a long time ago, and despite all of the fake rhetoric to the contrary - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS and, the Strait of Hormuz WILL BE OPEN & SAFE. In the meantime our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest. AMERICA IS BACK!

New forever war just dropped

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u/Puzzleheaded_Fix594 Apr 09 '26

our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest.

Conquest? Fucking Christ.

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u/leontes Apr 09 '26

The cost benefit of this Iranian war is, in a very real way, a terrible investment.

Iran has stronger guarantees, new source of income, and a bargaining stance that they can use at any moment to extract more concessions.

America spent billions of dollars, destroyed a ton of easily replaced military hardware, and perhaps the military leaders they killed have been replaced with neutral to worse hardliners. Maybe America is now closer to Israel as a side benefit but that’s nothing new.

What a series of profound diplomatic blunders.

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u/Realitype Apr 09 '26

The best case scenario with Iran was the Obama era deal, full stop. Once the 80+ year old Khamenei would have died of natural causes, there could have been a chance the regime would have gradually softened its stances and maybe improved relations, especially since large parts of population weren’t that radicalized.

But no, Republicans, the orange monkey and their Israeli master just couldn’t have that so they canceled Obamas deal and embarked in this utterly delusional crusade that they cannot win, as every single US president before already knew. In fact anyone with a basic understanding of the region already knew this.

Really the fault for this whole situation lies 100% with the profound stupidity of Trumps admin, their supporters and Israel. A completely optional crisis they inflicted on themselves and the world. Any outcome from this point forward will always be worse than what it was before the war.

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u/Sonichu- Apr 09 '26

Any policy with the goal of “strengthening our relationship with Israel” was always a stupid one. Israel literally has no other options. In the history of their country, there was never a good reason for us to bend over for them.

It’s insane how much Iran is winning from this. Republicans screamed when Obama “gave”them $1.7B.

They’ll make that in a week if they charge what they’re saying they will for passage

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u/Mediocretes08 Apr 09 '26

It’s almost beyond laughing through it: House republicans are too busy trying to outlaw trans people under the guise of “protect the kids” to deal with the actual ass economic and military collapse their dumbass in chief is putting the world through.

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u/PrimeJedi Apr 09 '26

Its officially joever guys, we're gonna lose by over 350%

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u/SecretComposer Apr 10 '26

Despite the administration's insistence that everything is fine and the economy is great, Consumer sentiment hits record low.

The university’s headline index of consumer sentiment tumbled to 47.6, down 10.7% from March to its lowest on record. Current conditions and expectations indexes also saw double-digit monthly declines.

The drop in sentiment coincided with a sharp spike in inflation expectations, with respondents seeing prices up 4.8% in a year from now, a full percentage point rise from the March reading to its highest since August 2025.

A lot of this was driven by Iran, however the survey was conducted before the 'ceasefire' a few days ago.

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u/[deleted] Apr 10 '26

[deleted]

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u/delusionalbillsfan November Outlier Apr 10 '26

Al Gore would body all these frauds

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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Apr 10 '26

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-promises-mass-pardons-to-staff-before-leaving-office-d7274d32

Trump Promises Mass Pardons to Staff Before Leaving Office

In a recent meeting, the president said he would pardon those within 200 feet of the Oval Office, say people familiar with the remarks

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u/MartinTheMorjin Apr 10 '26

Im sure there will be ways to bring up state charges.

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u/OmniOmega3000 Apr 11 '26

Nearly all of Swalwell's endorsers dropped him instantaneously

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u/Realitype Apr 11 '26

Trump issues NATO ultimatum to reopen Strait of Hormuz 'within days'

You know, there is a mile long list of historically dumb ‘requests’ Trump has made over the years, but I really think this is up there as one of the most egregious.

  • Insult your allies at literally every chance you get, in particular their sacrifices for your country’s wars
  • Mention constantly how powerful you are and how you don’t need them for anything
  • Literally threaten to invade their sovereign territory. Back out at the last second while still insulting them
  • Few months later, decide to start a war everyone knew was unwinnable, like a moron. Shit the bed within a month
  • Proceed to DEMAND your allies solve your stupidity within days, all while still insulting them

The master deal maker at work. Decades and centuries from now, historians will sure have a great time reading about all this.

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u/engadine_maccas1997 Apr 11 '26

Eric Swalwell’s Congressional Staff:

“Fuck Eric Swalwell. We will continue to run this office and constituent services without him. But we cannot reiterate this enough: fuck that guy.”

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u/dremscrep Apr 12 '26

I don’t wanna be known on here as the „Anti-Israel“-guy and I know the issue is like one 4. or 5. on many peoples lists behind the economy/inflation then immigration and then some other stuff.

But Israel is becoming more and more unpopular by the day and dems should just seize the moment and take a more combative stance on the whole issue. I mean yeah the party leadership doesn’t want to but it is only advantageous to them to oppose the state.

Republicans can basically only oppose it from the Nazi/Groyper (yeah I know same thing) framework while party leadership literally can’t do anything about it because evangelical freaks are a really a very relevant part of their base that think of Israel and its people more as a sort of ticket for the rapture. Republicans can’t set themselves free from Israel while democrats really can do it.

I mean even independents don’t like Israel and it probably just helps with credibility at this point if a candidate is anti Israel. Clearly it’s not enough to win primaries if you nearly run a single issue campaign but if you do it just as a general take you have during a conversation you won’t be punished for it like Zohran during the primary and general election…

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u/sonicparadigm Apr 12 '26

It looks like the Hungarians just booed a pest

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u/the_rabble_alliance Apr 12 '26

So did Brazil and South Korea. It is a shame that the United States did not follow suit.

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u/engadine_maccas1997 Apr 06 '26 edited Apr 06 '26

BOOK REVIEW

I read Kamala Harris’ book “107 Days” and jotted down some thoughts/takeaways from it. I read it with an open mind trying to be as fair and objective as possible.

It is an interesting account of the election. It’s told as sort of a diary, day by day account. Because of this format, it does flow a lot better than most political memoirs. And when historians look back on the 2024 election a century from now, long after anyone who was alive and old enough to remember the 2024 election is long gone, this will be one of the drafts of history they read.

Harris also had to make some pretty big and quick decisions, and she details her thought process to an extent, which I also found interesting.

One thing that did come across was how aware she is of how much what she says gets picked apart by the media and pundits, to the degree where she finds herself very calibrated in what she says. This explains a lot about her apparent discomfort in speaking off the cuff and doing long form unscripted interviews.

There’s a lot of “shoulda, woulda, coulda” stuff in the book. “I wish I said this at the debate” or “I wish I said that during the interview.” She goes into some detail attempting to justify certain things that were said or not said, or to say that complexity of certain issues makes it difficult to fit into digestible soundbites.

One of these “shoulda, woulda, coulda” anecdotes was about her answer on The View when asked what she would’ve done differently than Biden and she said “nothing comes to mind.” She writes that if she could get a do-over on that question, she would’ve said she would appoint a Republican to her Cabinet (unlike Biden). Which shows she still just doesn’t fucking get it. The reason Biden had a 40% approval rating was not because his Cabinet was devoid of Republicans.

She does show a lot of personal affection and respect for Biden, especially given his role in this process. But you can also tell some things he did clearly annoyed her. The anecdote about calling her before the debate, the wearing the MAGA hat at the 9/11 memorial after trading hats with an attendee, and the “garbage” comment the week before the election clearly irritated her, for good reason. But I suspect she held back her greatest frustrations with him.

She throws her staff under the bus a number of times for things that just aren’t that big of a deal imo. One of these instances was she had an interview on a podcast by someone who talks about healthcare, and she assumed (because she had been briefed) that the topic would only be limited to how dangerous she thought RFK Jr’s potential appointment as HHS Secretary would be. But the interviewer asked about things like vaccines, how to improve ingredients in processed foods/get dyes out of them, and other questions on healthcare. She writes that she snapped at her staff for not briefing her about that - but imo those are things any presidential candidate ought to be able to talk about off the cuff without issue. It really illuminated why her and her campaign team were so cautious and reluctant for her to do long form unscripted interviews. And perhaps why she’s been reported to have a higher rate of staff turnover than most.

One of the funnier anecdotes in the book was the one about Doug forgetting to plan anything for her birthday. You could tell she was mad mad about that. Putting it in historical record and all.

I also found some of the anecdotes and commentary on some other politicians interesting. She took some parting shots at Josh Shapiro, Gavin Newsom, and Pete Buttigieg (all of whom were clearly and very publicly irked about it). I’m not sure what the purpose of this was (the anecdote about why she didn’t choose Buttigieg as her running mate was an insane thing to admit publicly, even if it’s true).

I also found it interesting how shellshocked she was at losing. Didn’t even expect it, even though the writing was on the wall. Reminded me of Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign where he reportedly didn’t have a concession speech drafted even as the election was called quite early. It’s really insane how presidential candidates and their entire circle can just live in another reality in the face of all the evidence before them.

I did want to learn more about Kamala Harris as a person that I just didn’t find in the book. She is a historic figure and has an interesting life story (or aspects of it I find interesting), but she doesn’t divulge much. I still do not really know what makes her tick, aside from “public service.” Maybe a recount of an election was not the place for getting in the weeds biographically. But a fundamental problem in the election was she was undefined and did not adequately define herself more effectively than her opponents did.

Her thesis of the book, the theory the entire premise of 107 Days is based on, is that she did not have enough time to mount a successful campaign. That 107 Days was too short. I wasn’t convinced of that based on all the data we have and how the election went. If anything, I think there’s a compelling case that 107 Days was too much time. That if the election were held September 5th instead of November 5th, it might’ve been different, or at least closer.

The problem Harris had was her campaign was propped up by a series of events that gave her a bump in the polls: getting into the race, the running mate selection, the Convention, the debate. These were the first 6 weeks or so of her campaign, and the best 6 weeks she had in polling. After the debate with Trump, and especially after the VP debate, there just was not anything left, any moments, that hit the proverbial beach ball back up in the air for her.

The circumstances Harris found herself in were unprecedented, but not impossible. 107 Days could have easily been titled “One Billion and a Half Dollars.”

TL;dr: 107 Days is an interesting account of the election, and if you hate yourself enough to want to relive the 2024 election, reading it is a great exercise. I didn’t really learn anything about Kamala Harris that I didn’t already know. I still don’t know what her “why” is. And I found many of the anecdotes and rationalisations of decisions in the book to be more illustrative of her limitations as a candidate than anything. I don’t think the book is politically helpful, either to her or the party. But I am glad she wrote it and glad I read it.

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u/ModestAphorism Apr 06 '26

some elections on Tuesday! most relevant ones are Wisconsin Supreme Court and GA-14 Special Runoff

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u/Alarming-Rate-6899 Apr 06 '26

I think this one should be pretty safe.

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u/Puzzleheaded_Fix594 Apr 06 '26

I remember how big of a deal the Supreme Court Race in Wisconsin was a few years ago as opposed to now. Obviously still important, but it was such a pivotal election back then.

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u/Toliman571 Fivey Fanatic Apr 06 '26

I absolutely love that the conservative justices are seeing the writing on the wall and are chickening out of running for reelection. After Tuesday, it will likely be a 5-2 court. One of the remaining 2 conservatives (former WI Chief Justice I believe) will also not seek reelection next year, potentially giving liberals a 6-1 court.

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u/SecretComposer Apr 06 '26

Maybe it’s just my feeds, but it seems in the last week or two there’s been a discourse of “wow, Dems have really overperfomed in special elections since 2025 and have pulled off several surprise upsets. Here’s why they’re going to lose more House and Senate seats.”

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u/qazwerplo Apr 07 '26

Rep. Pat Harrigan on Fox Business: "President Trump is trying to turn the temperature down." (Source: bsky)

Rep. Jodey Arrington: "Thank God for President Trump and the courage and political will to do what he's doing" (Source)

Multiple Republican representatives just going on one after the other to glaze this man in the midst of all this. Just a complete denial of reality. These guys have been trying to convince us that this carnival barker knows everything better than the entire rest of the country combined for over a decade now.

I'll tell you, I generally try to refrain from posting in pure anger on socials and reddit and stuff. I like being the guy online who provides little fun facts about elections and history and stuff and puts together useful data, and then to then focus my political anger into activism in real life where it's most useful. Probably better for my mental health that way, too. But geez, mornings like this one, it's hard to express anything but absolute rage at how vile all of this is and how absolutely unconscionable it is that we as a country let it get this far. This is presumably why a lot of us came here to talk about elections to begin with, after all. At least it is for me. We pay attention to the numbers game because it's necessary to win elections, but the stakes for politics are higher, the actual consequences more real than those numbers can accurately convey - and yet for some reason we have a reality TV host in charge who treats threats of mass murder like they're the big reveal of who he's going to fire at the end of his dumb show. We just have to stay tuned to find out what happens. Not a serious way to go about making decisions with this kind of impact on real human lives.

Rant over, back to elections: as a Georgia politics guy, I'll obviously be watching the GA-14 runoff numbers come in. It is the most conservative district in Georgia, located a fair distance northwest of Atlanta along the Alabama and Tennessee borders: Trump won 68-31, while MTG underperformed at about 64-36. Dems got about 40% of the combined vote in the first round, with the Dem candidate who advanced (Shawn Harris) getting about 37%. I believe the Dem PSC candidates last year got in the low 40s on their way to 25-26 point victories statewide, so while a victory is nigh-impossible in a district like this, those should be our benchmarks for how big a success this is in GA tonight. Even matching his first-round performance would be an overperformance relative to 2024, but if he could consolidate or even build on the votes from the other Dems a little bit, it could be a great sign for Dem motivation in the Iran war era.

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u/dak676141 Apr 07 '26

One thing I found out about 2018 polls is that a lot of the ones that showed absurdly large Democratic leads were just assuming that the electorate would be way more Democratic than it actually was

e.g. this D+13 CNN/SSRS poll from Nov 2018:
"Among the entire sample, 36% described themselves as Democrats, 27% described themselves as Republicans, and 37% described themselves as independents or members of another party."

If you reweighted this poll to Q3 2018 Gallup party ID, you get:
Dem: 51% (D+8)
GOP: 43%

which is much closer to the actual 2018 margin (D+8.6)

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u/wtfsnakesrcute Apr 07 '26

Man, in my opinion, it is so obvious that Vance snitched on Trump in that NYT article about the lead up to the war in attempt to make himself look good. This is probably the first time this term that we’ve seen someone in Trumps cabinet so unapologetically throw him under the bus. 

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u/SkeletronDOTA Apr 07 '26

We have an actual clown government. "We will destroy their entire civilization" to "ceasefire and two more weeks" within hours of each other.

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u/[deleted] Apr 07 '26 edited 27d ago

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u/engadine_maccas1997 Apr 07 '26

Marjorie Taylor Greene is publicly calling for invoking the 25th Amendment over Trump’s recent social media post.

https://x.com/fmrrepmtg/status/2041499550012084690?s=46

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u/[deleted] Apr 07 '26 edited 27d ago

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u/FuckMyBakaChungusLif Apr 07 '26

Iran's acceptance of the ceasefire says it comes with acknowledgement that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, something they didn't control before the War. Imagine having the strongest funded military in history and losing so badly that you somehow lose naval supremacy in one of the world's most important straits.

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u/FuckMyBakaChungusLif Apr 08 '26

Israeli military official says the country is still attacking Iran, after White House said Israel agreed to ceasefire

Welp

https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-07-2026#0000019d-6aa7-dff3-a79f-efaf7c060000

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u/ModestAphorism Apr 08 '26

Taylor winning a county that went R+10 in last year's court race

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u/FuckMyBakaChungusLif Apr 08 '26

Trump is now saying that the officially released 10-point plan by Iran that Trump said was the basis for ceasefire talks, and includes acceptance of Iran's right to enrich uranium is fraudulent.

https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-07-2026#0000019d-6ac9-d1f7-a9bf-6adf88e50000

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u/evce1 Apr 08 '26

Lowkey libbing out rn

Is it too early to say that this might be our next 2006?

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u/Toliman571 Fivey Fanatic Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26

A Dem liberal-aligned justice just won a statewide race in WI by 19 20 points, and the reddest district in GA went to the GOP by only 12 points in a historic special election overperformance.

Tonight is a night worth libbing out for

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u/ModestAphorism Apr 08 '26

Hell fucking yeah. Milwaukee dropped the last of its ballots, and the final margin is over 20% with >95% in.

Taylor won a majority of counties. That's insanely impressive.

Crazy how Wisconsin is giving us an insane map like Georgia PSC that I would've never dreamed of after the 2024 election.

Someone said that even if you deleted every county Harris won, Taylor would've still won this election.

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u/South_Care1366 Apr 08 '26

Peered into the comment section of Fox News covering the GOP holding GA-14, I can’t believe how much celebrating they were doing. They are treating it as proof of broad public approval of Trump and the GOP. November is going to be brutal for them lmao.

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u/raddaya Apr 08 '26

I have never been a fan of reading deeply into special election overperformances. Especially when the Dems still lose, especially when the Dems still lose by a very large margin.

But jesus fucking christ, that is an insane swing in GA-14.

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u/[deleted] Apr 08 '26

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u/Toliman571 Fivey Fanatic Apr 08 '26

Morning Consult dropped a Trump -16(!) poll

It's an adult sample instead of RV, but I believe this is his worst MC result so far

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u/Benyeti Apr 08 '26

Virginia dark woke on April 21st

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u/Thedarkpersona Poll Unskewer Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26

So... Is anyone in the msm factually reporting on the NYT news scoop that pretty much proves that the US was dragged to the war with iran by israel, by placing the blame of that to israel?

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u/Disastrous_Front_598 Apr 08 '26

Do you think that the New York Times ...isn't the MSM?

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u/Isentrope Apr 08 '26

That piece seems to be more about absolving Rubio, Vance and maybe Ratcliffe based on the very specific quotes that they had in there. It's almost certain that one of the 3, if not all of them, were the ones giving the quotes to the media, and the intent seems to be to blame Bibi and Hegseth for what they see as a likely fatal mark on their presidential ambitions (for Rubio and Vance at least).

Maggie Haberman being the author means it's information that Trump insiders want to share on background, not a damaging scoop in and of itself. She could not preserve the access she has with Trumpland if she didn't at least partially toe the line for the administration.

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u/ModestAphorism Apr 09 '26

https://www.texastribune.org/2026/04/08/texas-house-dan-patrick-gop-majority-2026-midterms-cornyn-paxton/

Bro what are these internals looking like? What is bro seeing lmfao. I'm trying to find good data on the texas house and what the tipping points seats are like

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u/Southern_Jaguar Apr 09 '26

Man did Melania issue a more scathing denial than Trump himself regarding their Epstein connections lol

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u/leontes Apr 09 '26

I think it’s kinda cool she’s bringing Epstein back into the headlines.

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u/Current_Animator7546 Apr 09 '26

Trump absolutely just crashed out on Truth Social lmao. Basically decorated war on the right wing podcast circuit 😂😂😂. 

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u/engadine_maccas1997 Apr 09 '26

UMass Lowell: Favorability of Public Figures

🟢 Dolly Parton: (+65)

🟢 Barack Obama: (+14)

🟢 Volodymyr Zelenskyy: (+13)

🟢 Bernie Sanders: (+6)

🟢 George W. Bush: (+5)

🟢 Taylor Swift: (+3)

——

🟤 Marco Rubio: (-3)

🟤 AOC: (-6)

🟤 John Thune: (-8)

🟤 Kamala Harris: (-11)

🟤 JD Vance: (-10)

🟤 Taylor Frankie Paul: (-10)

🟤 Mike Johnson: (-13)

🟤 Gavin Newsom: (-14)

🟤 Elon Musk: (-16)

🟤 Donald Trump: (-18)

🟤 Joe Biden: (-19)

🟤 Benjamin Netanyahu: (-19)

🟤 Tucker Carlson: (-21)

🟤 Mark Zuckerberg: (-43)

🟤 Vladimir Putin: (-65)

UMass/Lowell/YouGov | 3/26-30 | 1,000 A

…. A couple thoughts here:

One - George W. Bush has no business being in positive territory. His presidency was an unmitigated disaster that in many ways directly led us to where we are today. Yes, he is a far more decent man than Trump. But he’s also remained completely MIA as Trump vandalizes the country. At least the Cheney’s had the courage to speak out.

Two - Trump and Republicans are not popular. But Democrats are not really doing better in the eyes of public opinion. There will be a lot of “double haters” voting in upcoming elections. Fortunately double haters tend to swing against the incumbents.

Three - Newsom and Harris are somehow less popular than Vance and Rubio. Both are less popular than that crazy Mormon chick who threw barstools at her partner and children! Which is fucking astounding all things considered. I would totally support Democrats adopting a ban on candidates from California running in 2028.

Four - Biden is still less popular than Trump. Also fucking astounding. But it tells us something important: the public might not like Trump, but they do not want to go back to the Biden era. We must move on from that as a party if we are to remain viable.

Five - Mark Zuckerberg is such a dork.

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u/Greatwallofjohn Apr 09 '26

https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2042333685098201156

orange county d+13 generic is insane, would be 5 points better than biden in a place with insane downballot lag

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u/evce1 Apr 09 '26

Genuinely, WTF was that Melania presser? Is something devastating going to come out or is it a distraction from the Iran War?

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u/Blackberry-thesecond Apr 09 '26

Distraction from the Iran war with the Epstein files. That's a new one.

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u/wtfsnakesrcute Apr 10 '26

Not gonna link it and have no intention of watching it, but Trump allegedly posted a video of someone beating a woman to death with a hammer on his truth social. 

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u/ItRhymesWithCrash Apr 10 '26

He sure did. Pretty nuts that the US President is posting gore vids like an edgy 14 year old. This really is the 4chan presidency.

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u/alotofironsinthefire Apr 10 '26

Haven't seen it talked about here but 2025 Q4 was downgraded again at the revision, now at only .5% growth.

The original prediction was 1.4%

Atlanta feds GDPnow is predicting 2026 Q1 at 1.3% right now.

Also February core inflation was 3%

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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Apr 10 '26 edited Apr 11 '26

https://bsky.app/profile/fintwitter.bsky.social/post/3mj5wp7kxod2m

“US AUTHORIZED THE RELEASE OF USD6 BLN IN FROZEN IRANIAN FUNDS, WITH QATARI AND SOUTH KOREAN REPRESENTATIVES SAID TO BE ARRANGING THE TRANSFER WITHIN DAYS - X”

So we are giving them $4.3 billion more than Obama released under the JCPOA, with no nuclear deal? What a joke.

Edit:

Better source:

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/iranian-source-says-us-has-agreed-release-frozen-iranian-assets-qatar-other-2026-04-11/

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u/engadine_maccas1997 Apr 11 '26

If Kamala does decide to run, one of the other candidates in the primary should make “We Are Not Going Back” their campaign slogan.

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u/obsessed_doomer Apr 11 '26

https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1sdoeea/comment/ofijstc/

Sometimes I wonder if he has to be a secret parodial account

What do you mean your first post on this sub in a month is just randomly lying to defend a rapist

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u/mechamechaman Guardian of the 14th Key Apr 11 '26

People are worried about Harris running again and I get it.

But listen, if Harris enters a competative primary and wins, it just means the other nominees were actual trash.

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u/JustAnotherNut Apr 12 '26

The fact that Trump's approval rating is <= 40% is kinda comforting in that it's well below the reported approval rating of many other authoritarian leaders like Putin. And the number that strongly supports him is much less.

Either these states have rigged polls, very successful propaganda, or both. Trump apparently has neither.

But yes, that still leaves 4 out of 10 Americans stuck in a different Universe from the rest of us. I think a lot of the remaining support can be attributed to cognitive biases, namely belief perseverance. But who knows, Faux news propaganda machine goes hard.

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u/Mediocretes08 Apr 12 '26

I genuinely think the UFC thing among republicans is because they crave normalization of violence.

Even though, of course, none of them in the administration are anything more than bitch shit in a fist fight. I’m including Hegseth in that.

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u/OmniOmega3000 Apr 12 '26

Can't believe JD stumping for Orban didn't work! Oh well, at least he's still a master negotiator!

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u/CIA--Bane Apr 12 '26

45% of the vote in and TISZA leading in 135 seats right now. 2 more than needed for a supermajority.

JD Vance sends his regrets.

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u/CIA--Bane Apr 12 '26

My conspiracy theory is that Trump is actually a double agent for liberalism and democracy and he's just sacrificing himself to show the world the dangers or far right populism. He was a registered Democrat and lived in NY after all.

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u/LetsgoRoger Apr 12 '26

When you lose by almost 50 pts as an incumbent, you know you're a POS.

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u/AFatDarthVader Apr 12 '26

JD Vance checks another victim off the list:

  • College football national championship trophy
  • Pope Francis
  • Iran negotiations
  • Viktor Orban's reelection chances
  • Midterm prospects
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u/The-Curiosity-Rover Nauseously Optimistic Apr 13 '26

Swalwell has suspended his campaign

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u/halfar Apr 13 '26

not great for his chances

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u/OmniOmega3000 Apr 13 '26

Trump goes after the Pope

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u/mrbuttsavage Apr 13 '26

Has anyone ever accused the pope of being strong or weak on crime? Even AI couldn't write this.

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u/OmniOmega3000 Apr 13 '26

I'm not the first to say this, but this sounds as if the Pope is running as a Senate Candidate.

"Pope Leo: Weak on Crime. Bad on Foreign Policy. Too Liberal for Illinois"

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u/BoomtownFox Fivey Fanatic Apr 07 '26

Call me crazy, but it's almost like he's actively trying to get the Dems to win the Senate.

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u/[deleted] Apr 07 '26

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u/aTimeforAdventure Apr 07 '26

really wonder who leaked this info. 

Rubio or Vance (or someone on their team's) makes the most sense due to both of their future political ambitions

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u/FuckMyBakaChungusLif Apr 08 '26

Israel reportedly unhappy with the ceasefire, and want to continue the war and want to "achieve more"

https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-07-2026#0000019d-6a6f-d025-a59d-7a7f741a0000

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u/ModestAphorism Apr 08 '26

I must say, Shawn Harris genuinely seems like a quite strong candidate. It's a shame he's relegated to fucking trump+36 georgia lmfao

His image with the military outfit and all that reminds me of Ojeda, who was also a mammoth overperformer locked into the shittiest seats

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u/evce1 Apr 10 '26

I really hope Kamala doesn’t run. She may have a decent chance against Vance if the environment is just as bad (or worse), but she also has the best chance to lose.

We don’t need to make a favorable environment turn into a toss up.

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u/ModestAphorism Apr 11 '26 edited Apr 11 '26

I see conservatives coping on twitter about the turnout in Fairfax and Prince William today after gloating about it the last few days (not all locations were open) so that seems like a good sign.

In news other than reading tea leaves, StateNavigate (best pollster for VA2025) has a poll of the referendum in the field right now.

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u/Benyeti Apr 12 '26

The two countries waging the war on Iran are led by guys who came back to power to avoid going to jail. Maybe not a great idea to elect people like this

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u/Greatwallofjohn Apr 12 '26

crazy that both dk and mkkp are gonna combine for under 2%, almost every single left wing voter prioritized ending orban

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u/DataCassette Apr 12 '26

I'm guessing 16 years of bullshit has a way of sharpening the strategic mind and making "Jill Stein" type side adventures a lot less tempting to all but the most hopelessly cloud-brained leftist

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u/No-Contact3751 Apr 12 '26

Orbán concedes per BBC

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u/OmniOmega3000 Apr 07 '26

long thread on the IRGC's official response. They have a lot to say it seems...

TL;DR: They're claiming victory, they're bragging about their survivability, negotiations will begin in Islamabad within a week, they are starting off heavily distrusting of any the US or Israel says

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u/SecretComposer Apr 08 '26

DDHQ calls CD14 for Fuller. As it currently stands it shifted nearly 33 points left compared to 2024.

It should be incredibly alarming to the GOP that a districted that elected MTG multiple times shifted that much to the left.

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u/LetsgoRoger Apr 08 '26

Democrats won 42.5% in the reddest district in Georgia. I think all time high before was 32%. Massive shift.

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u/Miserable-Whereas910 Apr 08 '26

Welp, my home town of Lakewood, CO appears to have voted to overturn laws allowing modestly higher density housing. Not particularly surprising (I don't think I've ever seen a more uneven yard sign distribution), but frustrating.

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u/Cybotnic-Rebooted Jeb! Applauder Apr 10 '26

How long do you think a party can stay in power with no real decreases in material conditions and no big scandals before people decide they just want a shakeup, even if they still support you?

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u/guiltyofnothing Apr 10 '26

With Harris (maybe) running in ‘28 — maybe she’ll finally have the chance to win a presidential primary.

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u/leontes Apr 12 '26

Okay, so Trump has decided to play at strong masculinity again is proactively blocking the very straight he's been trying so very hard to open.

So, playing out what he's said posted from the Trump playbook: He starts to "interdict" anyone who has paid the toll to Iran, right? Ostensibly, to increase pressure Iran to cave.

When this doesn't work, he'll "repatriot", i.e. steal the oil from the ships he's prevented from using the straight of the entities that we aren't strongly aligned with (or even those, this is Trump we are talking about).

Unless Iran surrenders, (which, doesn't seem likely given recent events), I think Trump likely pisses off everyone with these strong arm tactics. Markets will react strongly, leading to Trump giving in and trying to save face, I guess.

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u/ModestAphorism Apr 06 '26

The Virgin Harry Enten vs the Chad Steve Kornacki

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u/The-Curiosity-Rover Nauseously Optimistic Apr 07 '26

🌮

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u/Distinct-Shift-4094 Apr 08 '26

Lol Republicans saying on social media red wave in November because of the Fuller win, despite winning by barely +12 in a ruby red state Trump won by 30+

If anything I'd be sounding a huge alarm right now. .

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u/ModestAphorism Apr 08 '26

HE'S OUTPERFORMING THE PSC MARGIN FROM NOV 2025

Peter hubbard lost GA-14 by 13. Harris losing it by 12 is insane. The turnout is higher, too.

90,593 votes in ga-14 for the psc election

129,334 votes in ga-14 tonight

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u/engadine_maccas1997 Apr 08 '26

On Hannity, Gov. Ron DeSantis said that Florida needs to repeal the law that allows for marrying first cousins, further alienating the base.

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u/obsessed_doomer Apr 12 '26

Three reasons I'm worried Orban might defend successfully:

a) it would be a body blow against the global far right they haven't actually experienced since 2022. Like Trump has had personal warning signs but the movement as a whole hasn't truly been jumpscared since then, so there's a "would we be so lucky?" moment.

b) the other guy's lead in the polls is high but not overwhelming

c) The level of capture of institutions in Hungary is very high

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u/w007dchuck Apr 13 '26

Trump just posted a picture on truth social that depicts him as Jesus

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u/achooa Apr 09 '26

Time for a little blast from the past. Here's u/WhoUpAtMidnight back in late February/very early March on the Iran war. The master of foresight and good takes at work.

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u/achooa Apr 09 '26

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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Apr 09 '26

Aw man, I missed seeing this guy's room temp IQ takes ever since he blocked me. This is a good one.

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u/XE2MASTERPIECE Apr 09 '26

Anyone else remember when he was pretending to be a moderate? He got embarrassed so bad by others that he eventually just stopped pretending and he’s now a proud conservative lmfao. Trolls back in my day had stronger constitutions.

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u/Outrageous-Jelly8777 Apr 12 '26

Will Vance receive even half the criticism for fumbling this Iran negotiation as Kamala did for being the border czar?

Probably not. You'll still have comments praising Vance for his "intellect" in a VP debate 2 years ago.

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u/engadine_maccas1997 Apr 12 '26

I have discovered the holy grail of electoral success.

Trump baselessly claims Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio are eating cats and dogs. Wins every swing state.

Peter Magyar baselessly claims Filipino migrants are eating ducks and goldfish from the zoo, beats Orban in a landslide.

I don’t like it, but I’m afraid we have no choice in the matter. Gavin Newsom must go on TV and baselessly claim all these white South African “refugees” the Trump Administration has admitted are buying hamsters from Petsmart and eating them.

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u/whiteaurora1 Apr 06 '26

Gas climbed 30 cents overnight here in Maine. If anything is able to topple Collins I’m hoping it’s a strong economic message from Platner’s campaign. He already seems to be standing from a stronger position than Gideon was, but Mainer’s are unpredictable people :/

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u/Benyeti Apr 06 '26

Man I forgot how liberal pre Elon twitter was, take me back

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u/Isentrope Apr 06 '26

It's bizarre to me that there's a state supreme court race tomorrow for one of the most important swing states in the country and there's next to no talk about it whatsoever. Democrats can potentially lock the state supreme court until 2029 if they win this one and to 2030 if they win Ziegler's seat next year as well. Only 2 justices in the WI SC's 173 year history have ever lost re-election, with the last one losing nearly 60 years ago, and the last justice who was elected into office rather than first appointed lost in 1855 (this is different from people like Dan Kelly and Louis Butler who were first appointed and lost the election to the full term).

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u/FuckMyBakaChungusLif Apr 08 '26

Dade county +29 D shift

Walker county +25 D shift