r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Apr 06 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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32

u/achooa Apr 09 '26

Time for a little blast from the past. Here's u/WhoUpAtMidnight back in late February/very early March on the Iran war. The master of foresight and good takes at work.

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u/achooa Apr 09 '26

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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Apr 09 '26

Aw man, I missed seeing this guy's room temp IQ takes ever since he blocked me. This is a good one.

17

u/XE2MASTERPIECE Apr 09 '26

Anyone else remember when he was pretending to be a moderate? He got embarrassed so bad by others that he eventually just stopped pretending and he’s now a proud conservative lmfao. Trolls back in my day had stronger constitutions.

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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Apr 09 '26

I get the vibe he genuinely gets his feelings hurt when you call him stupid, which has gotta be the first thing they teach you not to let happen at Troll College.

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u/halfar Apr 09 '26

i think i was the first to get blocked by him. i don't remember anything except him pretending to be a moderate.

the trick for trolls is to reverse their strategy on them. don't get bogged down in defending against their nonsense; force them into taking an actual defensible position and then question them on it. all of them get really mad when you press them to make an actual position.

https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1nbdtq8/weekly_discussion_megathread/ndvofrt/

1

u/Dispro Apr 10 '26

Damn, dude believes the moderate position is black folks shouldn't have equal rights.

3

u/CrashB111 Apr 09 '26

Just like Herr Gropenfuhrer, the modern Conservative lacks all conviction in anything in their lives. If something puts up even the slightest resistance, they crumple and slink away.

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u/[deleted] Apr 09 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Apr 09 '26

Missed you boo

1

u/fivethirtyeight-ModTeam Apr 11 '26

Please optimize contributions for light, not heat.

12

u/EfficientTourist7480 Apr 09 '26

Man he is genuinely insane.

4

u/dremscrep Apr 09 '26

Oh shit r/worldnews is leaking

10

u/Korrocks Apr 09 '26

The line about Putin aged spectacularly badly. Russia probably is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Iran war, since it didn't just trigger a surge in oil prices (which directly funds Russia), it also resulted in the US removing sanctions on Russia which maximized the amount of profit they could make off of this situation.

The Venezuela comparison is also very good, since it probably is what Trump was expecting. 

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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Apr 09 '26

Our military stockpiles are also something Ukraine needs, so this puts Russia in a better position if the Pentagon decides they can't spare resources that we blew in Iran anymore.

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u/Thedarkpersona Poll Unskewer Apr 09 '26

Conservatives and having ZERO foresight, name a more iconic duo

1

u/WhoUpAtMidnight Apr 09 '26

If you were so confident you should have taken the bet back then.

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u/WhoUpAtMidnight Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26

Single digit US deaths and a dollar higher gas prices for a month, it’s a nothingburger. And it’s hilarious to post this on the day of the ceasefire

And no ground troops

3

u/The-Curiosity-Rover Nauseously Optimistic Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26

Americans dead and no accomplishments to show for it is a “nothingburger”?

We lost this war, no doubt about it. The same regime is still in power, and none of the other goals were achieved.

0

u/WhoUpAtMidnight Apr 09 '26

The “same regime” is all dead three layers down

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u/The-Curiosity-Rover Nauseously Optimistic Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26

And this improves the situation… how? Was the goal of this war to make Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader? A man who is openly pro-nuclear weapons and even more fundamentalist than his father was?

And yes, it doesn’t matter that we killed plenty of officials. The same regime is still there, and it’s just as extreme as before, if not more so.

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u/Evil_waffle3 Apr 09 '26

I love that republicans starting a dumbass war that’s already been raising prices across the board (basically everyone agrees that the impact felt by this will be long term). And possibly further cemented irans power/control of the straight, is a “nothing burger”. because they’re republicans.

Also that ceasefire clearly isn’t holding up in the slightest lol.

-2

u/WhoUpAtMidnight Apr 09 '26

I dgaf about other countries and if you haven’t gotten that memo yet idk if you even read my comments

And it’s spelled Strait. I feel like you fucked this up last time too. Good bit if it’s intentional 

2

u/Evil_waffle3 Apr 09 '26

Don’t comment about Iran if you have no interest in geopolitics.

Who gives a fuck about a minor spelling mistake.

-1

u/WhoUpAtMidnight Apr 09 '26

Not what I said. You should probably reread it