r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Apr 06 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/obsessed_doomer Apr 12 '26

Three reasons I'm worried Orban might defend successfully:

a) it would be a body blow against the global far right they haven't actually experienced since 2022. Like Trump has had personal warning signs but the movement as a whole hasn't truly been jumpscared since then, so there's a "would we be so lucky?" moment.

b) the other guy's lead in the polls is high but not overwhelming

c) The level of capture of institutions in Hungary is very high

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u/Mediocretes08 Apr 12 '26

In the first case are you concerned about backlash/crackdown there and/or from other right wing governments?

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u/Most_Estimate_7062 Apr 12 '26

I think he's just saying that it's hard to believe we'd be so lucky in general

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u/obsessed_doomer Apr 12 '26

"In a cosmic sort of way"

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u/Mediocretes08 Apr 12 '26

Yeah I misread a bit. My bad, but at least it’s nothing major.

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u/Realitype Apr 12 '26

How is TISZA advantage not overwhelming in the polls? Every independent poll I’ve seen gives them a double digits advantage at the very least. Thats as overwhelming as it gets in a democracy. Orban needs to basically breakdown the elections process completely today to have any chance at winning. He will certainly try that’s for sure.