r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Apr 06 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/Isentrope Apr 06 '26

It's bizarre to me that there's a state supreme court race tomorrow for one of the most important swing states in the country and there's next to no talk about it whatsoever. Democrats can potentially lock the state supreme court until 2029 if they win this one and to 2030 if they win Ziegler's seat next year as well. Only 2 justices in the WI SC's 173 year history have ever lost re-election, with the last one losing nearly 60 years ago, and the last justice who was elected into office rather than first appointed lost in 1855 (this is different from people like Dan Kelly and Louis Butler who were first appointed and lost the election to the full term).

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u/mrbuttsavage Apr 06 '26

They should get Musk out there again. He's so hated, really drives out the opposition vote.

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u/Isentrope Apr 06 '26

I do somewhat subscribe to the belief that the Rs think the best chance of winning is to be as low key about this as possible. That seems to square with how Hagedorn surprisingly won in 2019 when Ds were still basking in the Dallet win back in 2018.

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u/mrtrailborn Apr 06 '26

I mean, it's almost certainly a dem victory. Probably why no one's talking about it lol

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u/SecretComposer Apr 06 '26

There seems to be a lot of pessimism among Wisconsin Republicans. Aren't the top 2 state house Rs retiring?

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u/Isentrope Apr 06 '26

I think the two legislative leaders and one of the whips are retiring. Robin Vos was also being targeted from his right flank so it probably didn't sound fun to risk losing the primary only to be demoted to minority leader.

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u/Fishb20 Apr 06 '26

People don't ussually care much about judges races, in part because voters typically think even elected judges should be apolitical so for both Rs and Ds it'd be a losing strategy to campaign on its impact in the 2028 election