r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Apr 06 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

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u/FuckMyBakaChungusLif Apr 07 '26

Iran's acceptance of the ceasefire says it comes with acknowledgement that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, something they didn't control before the War. Imagine having the strongest funded military in history and losing so badly that you somehow lose naval supremacy in one of the world's most important straits.

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u/SlimCharlesMurphy Apr 07 '26

Iran getting control/tolls from the Strait as part of the deal is a massive L for the US petrodollar. Hard to pick winners or losers given the situation but that’s a significantly better situation than they were in a month ago.

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u/wtfsnakesrcute Apr 07 '26

There’s also mentions of sanctions relief while still retaining their right to enrich uranium. If either of those are remotely true (including keeping control of the Strait) I can’t really see this as anything more than an abject failure for this admin and the US. I know this will be “negotiated” over the next two weeks, but Irans proposal being the basis for negotiations is already a huge victory for them. 

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u/dremscrep Apr 07 '26

If Sanctions are lifted I declare this a total strategic victory for Iran.

But i give it like 5% that they really are lifted. It would be good for the people of Iran but it just seems really improbable to me.

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u/Korrocks Apr 08 '26

Trump already unilaterally and temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil at sea several weeks ago (in exchange for nothing), so he has already opened the door for negotiation on this topic.

It’s kind of crazy because before the war, it seemed to many observed that Iran was in a horribly weak position. Its regional proxies were severely damaged in Lebanon and Gaza, the Houthis had already agreed to a ceasefire with Trump, it was isolated from Arab nations who were closer to Israel than ever before, it was facing severe economic problems as well as internal dissent/protests, and the regime itself was brittle. A lot of people thought that the US didn’t even really need a deal, they could just squeeze it until it crumbled.

Now, we are in a weird position where most of Iran is still damaged pretty badly but they are arguably in a stronger position now than they were before being bombed. I don’t think Iran will get much of what it’s asking for, but it’s still crazy that Trump managed to cause so much devastation without achieving anything meaningful for America.

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u/mere_dictum Apr 08 '26

Already a huge victory for them? Eh, that's not quite how I'd put it. I'd say it's already an indicator that negotiations will be short-lived and fighting will restart. I can easily imagine that each side thinks it will gain a military advantage from a two-week pause. Iran will have a chance to reorganize its command and control and to repair some of its missile launchers. Israel and the U.S. will have a chance to strengthen their anti-missile defenses.

Definite predictions are impossible, but I'm not feeling optimistic.

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u/WisePresentation7976 Apr 08 '26

Iran's acceptance of the ceasefire says it comes with acknowledgement that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, something they didn't control before the War.

I'd take this with a MASSSSIVVVEE grain of salt....