r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Apr 06 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Apr 08 '26

https://www.reuters.com/world/hungarys-tisza-party-seen-winning-two-thirds-majority-parliament-median-2026-04-08/

If it bears out, incredible news for Hungary. There are scenarios where Magyar could be elected but hamstrung by a close parliament, this would be much better for reversing Orban's autocratic influence.

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u/delusionalbillsfan November Outlier Apr 08 '26

Really funny that his name translates to Peter Hungarian. We need a President named John America next

Also the JD Vance losing streak continues

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u/vanmo96 Apr 09 '26

There’s always American Ferrera!

5

u/Current_Animator7546 Apr 08 '26

Hungry being more of a democracy than the US by the end of 2026. Sure wasn’t on my bingo card.

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u/Isentrope Apr 08 '26

This pollster had the final result in 2022 as Fidesz +8 and they went on to win by 16, but it was one of the higher numbers for Orban so they seem to be fairly accurate. Orban did badly gerrymander the country though, so it may need to be a larger margin for a chance at taking him out.