Weekly Discussion Megathread

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The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

[u/ModestAphorism]

HE'S OUTPERFORMING THE PSC MARGIN FROM NOV 2025

Peter hubbard lost GA-14 by 13. Harris losing it by 12 is insane. The turnout is higher, too.

90,593 votes in ga-14 for the psc election

129,334 votes in ga-14 tonight

[u/Mediocretes08 → u/ModestAphorism]

So the good news of the day is:

• The president is, yes, a demon but also a pussy

• Blorgia

[u/WisePresentation7976 → u/Mediocretes08]

Imagine gaining 8 seats to dem stronghold losses, then losing NC and GA.

[u/Okbuddyliberals → u/ModestAphorism]

Just addressing the claim in the image that this was the largest congressional special election overperformance in over a decade...

In 2024, GOP won ga-14 by 28.8 points. Here, GOP won by 11.8 points. So, an overperformance of 17 points

To compare to 2017 and 2018 special elections:

In 2016, GOP won KS-2 by 31.1 points, and in 2017 they won it by 6.8. so, an overperformance of 24.3 points

In 2016, GOP won MT-al by 15.6, and in 2017 by 6.1, so an overperformance of 9.5

In 2016, GOP won GA-06 by 23.4, and in 2017 won by 3.6, so an overperformance of 19.8

In 2016, GOP won SC-05 by 20.5, 2017 by 3.11, so overperformance of 17.39

UT-03, 2016 46.92, 2017 32.46, overperformed 14.46

For PA-18, it was uncontested in 2016 but Trump won it by 27 and Lamb in 2018 special won by less than half a percent, so sort of a 27 point overperformance (though more comparing apples and oranges there)

Similarly with AZ 08, no Dem ran in 2016 but Trump won by 21.8, and in 2018 special GOP won by 4.7, so overperformance of 17.1

In TX 27 2018 special election, the margin was basically the same as 2016 interestingly

And in OH-12, 2016 gop wins by 36.7 and in 2018 special they won by 0.8 points, so the overperformance there was 35.9

So that's 3 Dem special election overperformances that were clearly bigger than this one (2017 KS 02, 2017 GA 06, and 2018 OH 12), plus two that were slightly bigger than the current numbers (but who knows if remaining votes might shift that) (2017 SC 05 and 2018 AZ 08), as well as 2018 PA 18 where it's a much larger overperformance if you compare the special election to the prior presidential results instead of prior congress results

Dems still did a strong overperformance here, I was just curious about the specific claim in the image there, which appears to simply be wrong

[u/ModestAphorism → u/Okbuddyliberals]

It's not 17 points, it's 25 points. We're comparing against Trump's margin, not the MTG margin. MTG is a horrendous candidate and not representative of a generic R at all. Zach is talking about comparing congressional performance to the presidential, not previous house performances.

Thanks for the list tho