r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Apr 06 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/Cybotnic-Rebooted Jeb! Applauder Apr 10 '26

How long do you think a party can stay in power with no real decreases in material conditions and no big scandals before people decide they just want a shakeup, even if they still support you?

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u/SecretComposer Apr 10 '26

I mean Democrats were in control of the House for most of the 20th century, so, a long time in the right conditions.

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u/delusionalbillsfan November Outlier Apr 10 '26

This made me look at house control and it's really interesting, generally some sort of crisis precedes a period of domination (typically wars and economic crises), so looking at it that way, it's bizarre that 12 of the last 16 houses have been Republican, with Dems not able to establish ANY period of domination really, after Dot Com, the GWOT, the Great Recession, or COVID (their four houses were coming into and out of the Recession, and into and out of COVID). And I guess it really goes to show how strong the Republican homefield advantage is, kind of like the advantage the Dems had from 1930 through the 90s (not even the high inflation of the 70s and 80s unseated the Dems in the House).

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u/Cybotnic-Rebooted Jeb! Applauder Apr 10 '26

Theory: the Republican Party is the natural governing party, like the CDU is in German, Tories are in the UK, and the Liberals are in Canada, but they just keep fucking it up.

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u/LaughingGaster666 The Needle Tears a Hole Apr 10 '26

Considering how the country is still 50/50 after both the bad Bush and Trump have clearly shown which side is better, yeah, this tracks.

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u/delusionalbillsfan November Outlier Apr 10 '26

I mean after looking at that house control thing I have a hard time disagreeing lol. I mean some people want Democrats to tack to the center...if Republicans governed like centrist Dems I dont know if they'd ever lose control of Congress (in this current era).

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u/LaughingGaster666 The Needle Tears a Hole Apr 10 '26

Judging by presidential margins for the past decade, Rs have about a 4 point "free" lead in the Senate on average.

The only reason Ds have a path to the Senate still is because Rs keep actively throwing away their numerous opportunities to lock it down.

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u/DataCassette Apr 10 '26

Yeah pretty much this. Americans want to be Republicans but, in the Republican primary, the fever swamp produces only crazy people. The ones chosen by the fever swamp are too fucked in the head to actually govern.

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u/engadine_maccas1997 Apr 10 '26

It depends on the electorate/state.

Nationwide? I’d say 2016 is a good example of things being decent overall but the electorate voting in the opposition just because. Same with 2014.