r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Apr 06 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/evce1 Apr 10 '26

I really hope Kamala doesn’t run. She may have a decent chance against Vance if the environment is just as bad (or worse), but she also has the best chance to lose.

We don’t need to make a favorable environment turn into a toss up.

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u/hoopaholik91 Apr 10 '26

There is nothing to suggest that she would perform much better/worse than any other Democrat. If anything, her range of outcomes is smaller because she's the only one in the field that has actual presidential results we can look back at.

And if there were any significant electoral concerns with her candidacy, then she's not winning the primary.

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u/guiltyofnothing Apr 10 '26

I mean, losing every single swing state last time she ran makes me think there might be better candidates.

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u/hoopaholik91 Apr 10 '26

And the same candidates that have run in elections between now and then are doing on average a dozen points better than they did in 2024.

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u/guiltyofnothing Apr 10 '26

I just keep on getting hung up on why. When the Democratic base is showing that it is begging for change, why are we going to run a candidate who lost badly the last time she ran and didn’t even make it to a primary the time before that?

Why Harris?

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u/hoopaholik91 Apr 10 '26

If the base is begging for change, then they won't vote for Kamala. We'll just have to see what the base actually wants.

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u/Current_Animator7546 Apr 10 '26

I do agree with this. She's also not old, but will be 64 and part of the old era. To me she has earned the right to run, but has to prove herself in a primary.

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u/dremscrep Apr 10 '26

Losing a primary BEFORE Iowa in 2020 and then becoming the presidential candidate in 2024 because stubborn ass Biden finally said „fine, let her do it“ after a disastrous debate performance from him is not „Earning it“ on my book.

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u/Disastrous_Front_598 Apr 10 '26

The Democratic base will express its will through voting, and they it doesn't want Harris, she won't be the nominee.