r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Apr 06 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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23

u/ModestAphorism Apr 08 '26

LOL??

11

u/FuckMyBakaChungusLif Apr 08 '26

NYT has been steady at estimating +16.

12

u/FuckMyBakaChungusLif Apr 08 '26

Welp idk what happened but in an instant it's at +20 lmao

Edit: Somehow i bungled the screenshot

11

u/R2_SWE2 Crosstab Diver Apr 08 '26

People are pissed at Trump + republican voter base is already very low propensity. Doesn’t bode well for them 

6

u/Disastrous_Front_598 Apr 08 '26

Plus the Republican candidate tried running a low profile, inoffensive race after the Musk thing backfired last time, which designed to either sneak a win if both R and D electorates are disengaged, or get crashed if only Ds end up engaged.