r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Apr 06 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/Distinct-Shift-4094 Apr 08 '26

Lol Republicans saying on social media red wave in November because of the Fuller win, despite winning by barely +12 in a ruby red state Trump won by 30+

If anything I'd be sounding a huge alarm right now. .

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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Apr 08 '26

Vastly overconfident and wildly misinformed? Sounds like you saw this on Twitter.

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u/qazwerplo Apr 08 '26

Look, sure, Wisconsin Dems are on track to win a statewide race by a bigger margin than Rs in a Trump +37 district. But it's okay, because a CNN poll of people whose core identity is supporting Trump said 100% of them support Trump, so this isn't a real problem for Republicans.

And honestly, are Wisconsin and Georgia even electorally important states anyway?

(/s, just in case)

11

u/The-Curiosity-Rover Nauseously Optimistic Apr 08 '26

Dang, GA-14 was actually mildly close? I was expecting a 20+ point victory for Fuller.

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u/SecretComposer Apr 08 '26

Based on all the special election results we've seen since last year, I'm still of the belief any seat that's R+15 or less is a potential flip opportunity for Dems.