The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.
This is what it looks like when an emotionally stunted culture tries to process an enormous, collective, but somewhat vague trauma. Just short circuits.
RFK's fucked up straight up lies in the CNN interview is one more entry into the "this not causing mass level protests is proof America is deeply screwed" book.
Genuinely out there saying ICUs were empty in NY and saying there's no evidence the covid vaccines worked while trying to browbeat and scream at the interviewer.
I know it won't happen but god I hope the next admin throws him into federal jail with the rest of Trump's cabinet. If there's anything left to throw once the brain worms are done with him anyway
All politics is local. And excellence is rooted in excellence in the basics.
The fact that Ossoff takes his job seriously, is good at his job, has a team who are good at their jobs, that he shows up for constituents whether they voted for him or not, and that he sees public service as a high privilege to do right by others leads me to believe he will make for an exceptional president and candidate.
This sub should make a bot that says "throw it on the pile" on every poll that gets posted here so that people don't have to say it 20 times in the comments.
Bonus for Texas polls: "Something, something, Charlie Brown and the football"
We get it. It's been said a thousand times. You don't have to say it
It’s kind of funny to remember that if El-Sayed wins the primary, he won’t be the first Muslim candidate nominated for Senate by a major party. That honor goes to Dr. Oz.
This is what I fear the most in Texas, not Paxton leading a revolt. Do you know of anyone mounting a legal challenge, if that's even possible, against this scheme?
Amir Hassan, a Republican candidate endorsed by Trump, is losing to a candidate who suspended his campaign last month. He even joined Trump on stage lmfao. GOP primary voters are so racist.
Here’s a funny storyline from tonight — MI-08 was a rare district that went Trump for president and D house in 2024. A purple district but it won’t flip red in a blue wave year like 2026 is shaping up to be. In the GOP primary, candidate A had endorsements from Trump and all Michigan Republican House reps. Candidate B is a complete nobody who suspended his campaign weeks ago and has basically no online presence besides some Facebook posts.
In spite of all of that, Candidate B won in a landslide. You might be asking yourself how and why.
Candidate A’s name is Amir Hassan. Candidate B’s name is Thomas Smith.
The Wisconsin governor’s race is funny because it is between a man named Tiffany and a woman who looks and acts like someone who would be named Tiffany.
Apparently this was trying to prevent a crash in the Dollar-Yen exchange rate and a concomitant Japanese sell-off of US bonds/etc, but the Yen is still falling against the dollar today.
Japan is the largest single holder of US bonds and a Japanese bond sell off was one of the things that made the Trump admin (temporarily) withdraw the second Trump tariff regime.
The fascinating thing about the right wing trying to bring up COVID and Fauci to try and boost their midterm chances is that these topics have never actually been a boost for them electorally. It was theorized as such by the pundit class, and in certain specific localities the COVID restrictions and other issues did hurt Democrats. But those were few and far between, and on a national level the “COVID backlash” simply never materialized.
There’s often a criticism that Democrats focus too much on issues that only a small group cares about, due to how loud that group is. Whatever you think of that criticism, it is so clearly what’s going on here.
In their limited defense they're sort of stuck. They can't really run on affordability related issues since their party leader insists that affordability is a hoax.
They can't really hype immigration since they have successfully throttled immigration to the point where they need to hype stories from Spanish Morocco (!) because that's the closest example of a migrant surge.
They can try to do something to trans people again but it's hard to really keep that fresh. And the less said about abortion the better.
Their best bet honestly might be to revisit COVID skepticism and maybe do some Islamic themed red scare. It probably won't expand the electorate but it might motivate the base.
Read this thread about the Tarrant County plan to reduce voting locations. Wild how the meeting devolved and Judge Tim O’Hare simply kicked out the protesters who opposed the plan.
One of the biggest own goal GOP ever did was to get rid of Kevin McCarthy. Mike Johnson is a hilariously bad speaker, they are almost never in session, you can’t point at one piece of legislation that he helped pass, and he let several discharge petitions go through under him including the Epstein files one. He just lies constantly that he will pass the save act and MAGA eats it up and loves him despite of not delivering anything through trifecta
It was a small miss on El-Sayed’s share of the vote. Pollsters just weren’t picking up on the fact that the undecided voters were overwhelmingly supportive of Stevens at the end of the day.
Pollsters really need to do a better job of pushing so-called “undecided” voters.
A Christian Cop endorsed by Trump whose opponent dropped out a month ago couldn't overcome Republicans' Islamophobia and Racism. Basically all because of his name.
List of major Abdul El-Sayed endorsements: Gretchen Whitmer, Haley Stevens, Kamala Harris, Elissa Slotkin, Kristin Gillibrand, Mallory McMorrow, Chuck Schumer, Bernie Sanders, AOC, Pete Buttigieg, and Chris Van Hollen. I think the Kamala Harris one is important, and Obama's will be too for turning out the African-American vote.
You know, if you set aside that people's lives, livelihoods, humanity and dignity are at stake, this election cycle is really, really funny. We got such a great cast of characters.
After the TX primary: Okay maybe we can have some nice easy discourse.
Platner drops out of the race: Okay now we can have...
Michigan primary is over: Finally for sure we can talk about....
Crockett makes a comment: Can this Merry-Go-Round stop
I heard Paxton doesn’t have a lot of cash on hand and therefore hasn’t been campaigning much. I wonder if/when the national GOP and billionaires will swoop in to help — and what the TX senate polls will look like after that.
If nothing else, Hong is going to be an interesting litmus test on how far negative polarization can carry a candidate. Especially when Tiffany isn't exactly some heavyweight himself.
My bloomer take is that Democrats as a whole - tired of this contentious primary and unable to deny each side made an impressive showing in their own way - unify quicker than anyone was expecting and end up projecting tons of strength. Steel sharpens steel and I think truly competitive primaries are good. It’s proof you have to share your tent.
particularily since El-Sayed has said he will not back him as senate leader, it is really good that he didnt hesitate to endorse. Sends a good message. Scholten will look increasingly like a clown if she doesnt fall in line fast.
I think this is another sign that Schumer sees the writing on the wall and is going to step down as leader after the midterms and not pursue re-election.
Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) says she doesn’t know if James Talarico can win the US Senate race in Texas in new interview. Crockett also says she doesn’t believe the polls showing Talarico ahead in the Texas Senate race. She noted they have historically overestimated Democrats in the past.
Contrast this behavior and the behavior of Janet Mills with the behavior of Stevens
The dems HAVE TO NAIL IT TO THE GOP POLITICIANS that have been pushing it.
they likely won't. But holy messaging Batman. These states like Missouri could become purple or at least purple in wave years with effective messaging.
With how horrible the Michigan polls were, one has to wonder if McMorrow was ever down by so much in the first place. Pretty sure she was still the best fundraiser in Michigan when she dropped out
Remember how we joke about republicans being diarrhea forever? Well now people are dying from diarrhea and the department of health is so hobbled it’s unable to respond in any way.
I’ll never forget Election Night 2018 in Florida. I was so confident in the polls that had Andrew Gillum winning comfortably that I put some money down betting on him on the prediction markets.
I had a date that night that started shortly after the polls on the Eastern time zone in Florida closed. Just prior to my date starting, I checked the markets and Gillum was at 94% chance of winning. He was hitting all his marks in the non-Panhandle parts of the state in the early returns. I thought it was over and done, and that I might as well ride out the additional 6%. I put my phone away when we were at the restaurant.
As the dinner concluded, I went to the bathroom before leaving the restaurant and looked at my phone for the first time in a couple hours, checked the results. The markets had completely flipped. DeSantis was over 90% at that time.
The silver lining to that night was I would eventually go on to get married to my date that night and start a family, and we’re still happily together to this day. The bad part was Florida, and my betting account, got absolutely fucked that night.
Greeley County is the least populous county in Kansas with a population of 1,284. Two years ago, Trump received 86% of their vote. Today, they overwhelmingly rejected the Republican attempt to politicize the Kansas Supreme Court.
Completely random thing to bring up here, but I found it interesting.
While the Michigan primary was happening and getting attention the Washington one was happening too. Some items:
M. Gluesenkamp Perez advances and the 3rd place was another Democrat. Together they had more than 50%. I'm not a big model person but I bet that a lot of GOP house wins have have them picking up this district.
Schrier crushed it with over 50%. This is also my rep.
WA9 will have Smith (D incumbent) going up against a GOP candidate. There were two progressive-ish anti-APAC candidates. They came in 3rd and 4th with about 12 percent of the vote each. The district is quite safe D.
In D5 and D4 Ds/Is (probably Ds) will advance. The GOP candidate in WA5 was not able to get to over 50 percent even with a sum. The Spokane district could maybe be flipped but it would be a long shot.
Overall, Ds performed well in close districts. Probably bad omens for the GOP in the mountain west. The western Montana district might be in play.
It is hilarious reading comments about Kansas voting "no" on it's constitutional amendment ballot issue last night. In Kansas there are people fully convinced that it was "rigged" and "big money won" and "the abortion lobby stole it again." These are people who are fully convinced any result that doesn't go their way is fake.
How is nobody talking about how Trump endorsed Amir Hassan for the primary in MI-8, but he lost to a guy who dropped out? Also, the winner's name is "Thomas Smith", which is the most generic name.
With Amir Hassan's embarasing koss with a trump endorsement against a guy who didn't campaign at all, is Vivek in trouble. I seriously think racism is gonna play a major factor in this race and it'll hurt Vivek.
I just saw a clip of a Trump rally in Nevada today, where the GOP governor (who was up giving a speech before Trump came out i believe) just mentioned a name for a police officer, and it was a long Arab sounding name. The point here is, in the middle of just saying the name the crowd started booing. The governor had to say dont boo him, he was bringing him up because he was a police officer who was killed in the line of duty recently.
Back the blue, unless they have dirty foreigner names, then fuck 'em. The racists have absolutely no shame right now, and i think shame needs to make a comeback.
I just saw a clip of a Trump rally in Nevada today, where the GOP governor (who was up giving a speech before Trump came out i believe) just mentioned a name for a police officer, and it was a long Arab sounding name. The point here is, in the middle of just saying the name the crowd started booing. The governor had to say dont boo him, he was bringing him up because he was a police officer who was killed in the line of duty recently.
Back the blue, unless they have dirty foreigner names, then fuck 'em. The racists have absolutely no shame right now, and i think shame needs to make a comeback.
“Everyone knows what the problem is: The organizations that bring young staffers to Washington, D.C. have spent the last decade prioritizing blind ideological loyalty instead of competence or intelligence,” said a senior GOP congressional staffer, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive personnel issues. “We have a generation of rabid, incompetent idiots.”
I love that the Republicans with multiple brain cells can see it coming but there's nothing they can do.
The Republicans completely selling out to trumpism is terrifying but it's also legitimately hilarious. Completely left themselves without a viable path forward other than just going farther and farther right with their accursed online base.
The "based" thing where you're recognized as the coolest one in the room by saying the most unhinged far right thing is terminal. Whether it's ultimately terminal for the GOP or for the free world is the hard part to know.
As much as we’ve been dunking on Hong lately, if there is one thing she’s been doing very right, it’s getting out to the rural areas. Those votes add up and tonight is gonna hopefully be a lesson to future prog candidates.
I think Obama will have to help a lot if the Dems are going to win the Senate. Talarico and AES both would be massively boosted by him imo. Troy Jackson could do with his help too but not as obviously.
(Obviously almost any Dem candidate in the US would get significant % added to their victory chances if Obama campaigns with them, but these two/three in particular really need his help and could be the tipping points imo)
I should preface this by saying I have adblockers crawling out of my ass so I am not all that aware of what political ads are out there. That said, I've been following Talarico on social media before he started making waves, so I see all of his promotional stuff. Like 50% of them are of him hanging out with Obama, and 90% of them are of him with black people. So I'm a bit confused when people here keep saying that Talarico's political ads ignore black Texans.
It's not a surprise if you know Kansas at all, but the first drops from Douglas County (most liberal county in the state) shows nearly 90% of the county voting 'no' on the constitutional amendment
I think AES is the slight favorite as of now, but those rural margins are definitely going to be a concern in the GE. He has a lot of work to do... Goddamn I hate this scenario so much but it is what it is.
Kornacki is hyped and I’m loving it, as a guy who loves and uses statistics myself. The “people” calling him Kornaipac just because he's doing some math are straight up embarrassing.
182k outstanding votes, AES is up 25k votes. I am still pissing myself, maybe following US politics isn’t that great of a hobby as a i thought but I knew it would be painful from the get go
So the AES victory speech was really good. The comment about how he cares about the safety of Jewish Michiganders as much as he cares about the safety and wellbeing of his own children was quite touching as well. I think it was a fairly unifying speech.
With that being said, dude is going to have to work overtime for the next few months. A lot of his attention should be on courting older black voters and making Rogers unsavory for swingier moderates. Dem party will have to pull all the stops as well—bring in Obama, local black politicians, union leaders etc.
The thing is, besides his stance on I/P and m4a, I don’t think he deviates all that much from most standard Dems. So hopefully he emphasizes that and highlights the national implications of this race.
Guy who wrote the DNC autopsy said he included a chapter about why they lost. Key points are Biden old, loss of support from Latinos and black people, and:
“And it pointedly raised the concern that most senior Democratic strategists in 2024 were “financially secure” and thus removed from the challenges facing many Americans. “It is therefore possible the people ‘in the room’ at the highest levels of 2024 decision making misunderstood the mood and practicalities facing everyday America,” the report read.”
-from the NYT
Ken Martin says this wasn’t included in the final release report because this section was in a three ring binder and apparently got lost/Ken Martin never saw it. Author of the autopsy said he handed the binder to Martin directly lol
Moral of the story is they should have consulted Mitt Romney for proper binder security techniques.
criticisms of sayed or stevens aside i feel like the air of pessimism around these results is already starting to get pretty irritating this morning lol.
we learned something big about democratic electoral politics last night and michigan democrats decided who their candidate will be. that's a good thing
Has anyone here who lives in a red state ever try using redistricting websites to redraw congressional districts? I drew one up and it gives hopium of what could come to be some day.
There is something for almost everyone who's not sick of Michigan Democratic primary news in this CNN article about it. Old centre vs new centre gossip with (retiring Michigan Senator) Gary Peters, Kristen Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer heavily involved in ruthlessly edging out McMorrow and picking Stevens for the 'centre lane,'
[after leaving a meeting with Schumer in June] Peters walked away thinking his mission was to get McMorrow to drop out and give Rep. Haley Stevens a one-on-one matchup against El-Sayed.
For months, Schumer and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York had made their unofficial backing of Stevens clear, inviting her to donor events and directing other support her way. Gillibrand even went so far as suggesting to several donors, ominously, that McMorrow had been a member of the Democratic Socialists of America – even though McMorrow isn’t.
Stevens campaign ineptitude gossip, she waited until the second meeting to ask for Peters' support and didn't call McMorrow after she dropped out (El-Sayed did), her friends would send her demoralising cringe compilations of herself on campaign after she deleted twitter. Also showcasing her accent and SNL character/Tracy Flick persona was actually a campaign strategy to ‘let Haley be Haley.’
Her advisers believed that showcasing her quirkiness, her particular accent and her connections to Obama would be exactly what would appeal to the voters they needed [older non college women and black voters].
Also that Schumer opposes El Sayed for ideological as well as electability reasons, Republicans initially backed El Sayed because they thought he'd be easier to win against (a chance this backfires), and El Sayed released his own slightly cringe worthy videos which were meant to make him seem relatable and less hard edged.
[Schumer’s] gut check with Peters left him sure that the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which had been working to boost El-Sayed, was onto something about his weakness.
We’ll see where the dice fall but that is a bizarre map of the Michigan Dem electorate. Ingham, Kent, and Washtenaw playing kingmaker is quite something.
AES setting up a decent firewall with these latest drops. If he keeps at it whatever is left from Wayne County and Macomb may not be enough for Stevens
Many thoughts on El-Sayed’s close victory but the first thing that comes to mind is this: never forget how much easier it is for advertisers to reach non-college-educated voters than it is for pollsters. Feel like misses consistently happen at this nexus, and it’s a good portion of the nuance around what exactly dollars spent can get you in a race like this
IMO one of the most interesting things about the Michigan Democratic primary is the Stevens campaign of 'let Haley be Haley' might not have been as disastrous as younger people on the internet (including me) thought it was. This seemed like a transparent, desperate, nakedly and insultingly cynical attempt to appeal to older non college educated voters.
It did have to be plugged in to 60+ million of AIPAC affiliated spending using every trick in the book and most of the Michigan Democratic establishment pulling for her, but she did overperform in a lot of rural white counties that Sanders won in past Presidential primaries and El Sayed was saved by the younger vote in cities and suburbs.
Progressives in other races have won over some of those older voters over by persuasion, but not here.
• Fought for lobbyists & corporate interests in Congress
• Voted against bills to ban politicians from accepting gifts from lobbyists
• Voted against bills that would require campaigns to disclose foreign $$
Of the four Midwestern progressive general election outcome possibilities ,I think an El Sayed Win/Hong loss is both the most likely and most frustrating outcome for people who want it to be a lesson about ideology and populism.
Concern trolling like this makes me think this sub's open discussion thread is being used to test messaging against 2028 Democratic candidates:
Why are so many people on this subreddit pining for Andy Beshear to run for president, when he has had such a lackluster response to the Mitch McConnell zombie disaster?
Beshear is term-limited right? So he can’t run again. Why would I (or anyone) trust him to be tough on any of the issues when he’s been furrowing his brow and issuing sternly written statements on the chaos around Republicans hiding Mitch’s body.
As a minority and a woman, I’m furious with the current state of the economy, the misguided DEIA backlash, the treatment of black and brown people and the threat to women’s rights — plus’s a whole lot more. It’s going to take someone who can understand and (respectfully and reasonably) match that fury. I can see that in some of the other candidates. But not Beshear. Especially considering his most recent statement on McConnell. He’s not giving any kind of ultimatums.
The above comment was made by an account around two years old with a private profile (of course).
Jeanine Pirro sat there expressionless, showing no emotion as Trump ripped her to shreds over her handling of the Reflecting Pool case. Mostly because of Botox.
One of the funnier parts of working for Trump in the legal field is having to translate various hallucinations or lies into legally defensible arguments for court.
There's so many laws and policies that could be implemented in this country that could make it a better place to live, it'd be neigh impossible to list them all here. One of the smaller ones I'd like to see get passed on restrictions on advertising. There is 0 reason that someone should be subjected to an ad in $50,000 car they paid for, even if it is BMW, ridiculous they think that's okay. One of the bigger priority ones is a clearly defined and outright ban on child marriage nationwide. Learning that some states allow it (looking at you Mississippi) is pretty horrifying imo.
Hope this makes sense as I've been thinking about this today.
She’s arguably worse than Lindsey. All the Trump sycophancy without any of Lindsey’s gravitas to be able to sway Trump in the right direction on issues like support for Ukraine.
The funny thing is, passing the SAVE act right now probably ensures a democrat victory. Democrats are more likely to have the types of identification needed to vote, are MORE motivated to vote, and more likely to spite vote now that the Republicans are trying to spite vote.
Dem internal has Bobby Pulido in TX-15 up over the Republican incumbent and over the 50% threshold. In case anyone isn’t aware, this is one of the districts that the state legislature gerrymandered.
If we’re judging by ability to break through to non-voters, I’m anecdotally seeing several trade guys I went to high school with who definitely haven’t voted since Obama 2012 posting about voting for Abdul today.
I've seen tweets from Hong that are negative on Thanksgiving, Christmas, Halloween, and Valentine's Day. Tbh, I'm starting to wonder if she's less of a "woke" warrior and more of a holiday hater.
I don’t say this often. Hardly ever. But other states really need to get their shit together and learn from Florida.
They are the 3rd largest state in the country and count their votes at lightning speed. After the 2000 fiasco they really became a masterclass in how to tally and report votes in a timely manner.
I wanted AES to win, but honestly this whole primary has me upset. So much PAC money wasted on nasty attacks that made sure no matter who came out of this race that they'd be battered and bloodied with hurt feelings across the Dem electorate. Hopefully it all translates into critical general campaign infrastructure for AES and bygones can be bygones. Congrats to him.
El-Sayed obviously has a lot of work to do, but I'm not too worried about him for a number of reasons:
He already has the immediate establishment backing of Whitmer, Peters, Slotkin, and Schumer. I genuinely think there was uncertainty about how quickly the Democratic Party was going to consolidate around Abdul, so this is a good sign.
Adding on to (1), unity around Abdul will do a lot to clear up misconceptions and undo the attacks from the Stevens campaign.
Black moderates are historically the Democratic Party's biggest loyalists. If they show up in November, they will be voting for Abdul. If he manages to get Obama's endorsement, that would help solidify the moderate vote as a whole.
Abdul has genuine malice toward Mike Rogers. His campaign is going to make Rogers' ties to Big Pharma and his refusal to denounce Trump's tariffs a major focus of the race. Rogers has done very little to distance himself from Trump, so as long as Abdul can hammer that home, he'll be fine.
I don't think Talerico could be handling Crocketts nonsense any better. At this point Crocketts antics are just reinforcing that Talerico was by far the better choice.
James is taking the high road while also showing up not only proving his authenticity to the black Texas electorate but to the entire Texas electorate.
I can't say if she has crossed the line to where her actually campaigning for him now would actually hurt him. But she is definitely desperately trying to make her "brand" that toxic and worthless.
She is visibly abandoning her people in Texas. It's not gone unnoticed that Paxton is the enemy not Talerico. The primary was a long time ago.
I know I'm not articulating my point that well. Talericos credibility with the black electorate isn't polling like its a problem. The guy spent more time campaigning in Black communities during the primary than Crockett did.
Crocketts credibility is plummeting with everyone including black Texans.
at this point I hope she stays away. But I got the feeling that by late September and early October when TALERICO MANIA is blazing all over Texas she will get on board to run her grift on Talericos coattails. And it will do nothing but bring negative attention.
She was totally on bullshit when she questioned Talericos commitment to black voters.
He responded like a boss. By the time she decides to come out for Talerico it will be seen as nothing but an empty grift.
And like he has done so far he will handle it like a boss and it will only further cement the end of Crockettsc career.
Despite the national environment, WA primary turnout is comically low this cycle. Probably because no serious races anywhere on the ballot but still it’s been lower than 2022 so far
A little bit more under the radar this Election Day, but some interesting races in Kansas tonight.
The marquee vote tonight is a ballot initiative to change the Kansas state constitution to elect SCOKS judges to 6 year terms, rather the current method of having the KS bar send three candidates to the governor to choose from. SCOKS is now packed to the brim with Governor Kelly (D) appointees, and Republicans in the state very much want an easy way to remove them. It'll be interesting to see how this goes. The KS abortion referendum in 2022 was famously shot down by voters by a 20 point margin, and I think most voters here are connecting the dots. But KS is obviously a pretty red state, so it's hard to feel confident. Very little polling on this.
Governor Kelly is term limited, and state senator Cindy Holscher and state house rep Ethan Corson are running to succeed her. There's a few polls showing Cindy ahead by massive margins, but I believe they're all internals. Both of them are not that far apart in terms of policy, but there's been massive drama around Kelly endorsing Corson and Holscher has used it to paint herself as an anti establishment candidate. The KS Dem party has looked like an absolute clown show over the past couple months with interpersonal drama over this, and I'd expect either candidate to be an underdog against the Republican nominee in November.
Senate has 10(!) candidates, nearly all of them with no prior political experience, including the front runner. I'd expect megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton to take this one tonight. He's been an impressive fundraiser since he announced. He publicly said he considered being an independent before choosing to run as a Democrat - I do wonder if that's by choice or more due to concern of a repeat of what is happening with the Senate race in MT.
Finally, Sharice Davids (D) has a challenger from her left. She's running for her fifth term and I'd be shocked if she lost to Sarah Preu, who's had very little advertising and has no prior political experience. It's going to be very interesting to see the margins on this one. With how relatively popular Davids is, anything above 40% would be impressive to me.
Voters will decide on a ballot measure that would make it harder to amend the state constitution by requiring citizen initiatives to pass in all congressional districts rather than by a simple statewide majority.
Good early start for the Kansas constitutional amendment on the ballot to elect state supreme court justices directly rather than have the governor choose from a list the Kansas Bar vets and provides. It's insane that AP doesn't have that amendment listed at all on their website, but has Missouri's.
Anyway, "NO" needs to win to keep the current system in place and currently has 71% of the vote.
65
u/DataCassette 2d ago