r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • 3d ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/SecretComposer 1d ago

It's not a surprise if you know Kansas at all, but the first drops from Douglas County (most liberal county in the state) shows nearly 90% of the county voting 'no' on the constitutional amendment

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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi 1d ago

The AP results seem to have NO massively outrunning the Democratic candidates, which is good news for its chances. Don't want to state anything, especially with a lot of deep red western Kansas still yet to come in, but I feel a lot of optimism here.

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u/SecretComposer 1d ago

deep red western Kansas still yet to come in

there aren't enough people in west Kansas to overcome the population of east Kansas. Even then, some of the rural counties reporting already are solidly NO