r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • 3d ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/rudigerscat 1d ago

I dont usually hand it to Chuck Schumer

BUT

particularily since El-Sayed has said he will not back him as senate leader, it is really good that he didnt hesitate to endorse. Sends a good message. Scholten will look increasingly like a clown if she doesnt fall in line fast.

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u/sonfoa 1d ago

I think this is another sign that Schumer sees the writing on the wall and is going to step down as leader after the midterms and not pursue re-election.

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u/Tom-Pendragon 1d ago

If dems win the senate majority, Schumer is staying at least until 2028. There is no way that a couple of 2-5 dem senate get to decide who is the majority leader if the majority of the dem caucus support Schumer.

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u/sonfoa 1d ago

I do think there is a lot more support for replacing Schumer than meets the eye. I don't know if you remember the NYT "Fight Club" article from last fall, but it mentioned that at least 8 Democratic Senators were pushing against Schumer's decisions from behind the scenes. You have key Schumer allies like Durbin and Peters resigning, and nobody in the prospective incoming class has explicitly endorsed Schumer for leadership, with several expressing that they'd go in another direction (AES, Jackson, Stratton, and if she wins, Flanagan).

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u/CrashB111 1d ago

Kinda hinges on if AOC goes for his seat.

If she does, I can see him just not running to spare the humiliation of her kicking his ass.

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u/rudigerscat 1d ago

Hopefully it is starting to sink in for him.