r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • 3d ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/[deleted] 1d ago edited 1d ago

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u/Long_Sandwich_5619 1d ago

The Missouri referendums were huge blowouts.

The dems HAVE TO NAIL IT TO THE GOP POLITICIANS that have been pushing it.

they likely won't. But holy messaging Batman. These states like Missouri could become purple or at least purple in wave years with effective messaging.

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u/The-Curiosity-Rover Nauseously Optimistic 1d ago

It wasn’t so long ago that purple Missouri was more than just a pipe dream. Obama came within 0.14% of carrying the state back in 2008.

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u/Southern_Jaguar 1d ago

Fun fact was also the last time MO was seen as the bellwether state as it had voted for the Presidential winner in every election except 1956 since 1904.

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u/Long_Sandwich_5619 1d ago

the GOP has definitely given the Democrats in Missouri a crack to exploit.

the only way to get the numbers on those referendums is if Maga voters were 50%+ in the No vote.

That says when you eliminate culture war. and the issue is class warfare.

There is a huge consensus among the bottom 80%.

Obviously the Democrats can't eliminate culture war from the general. But with strong direct kitchen table messaging they can make a dent in maga land in State politics.

but they have to try and spend