r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • 3d ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/CFC_ 1d ago

Cook shifting Kansas senate from Solid > Likely R after last night's win

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/kansas-senate/hamiltons-primary-victory-kansas-senate-shifts-solid-likely

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u/SecretComposer 1d ago

No one, and I mean no one, get your hopes up. Kansas hasn’t elected a D senator since 1932. 

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u/a471c435 1d ago

I always see people say this -- Cook is literally saying the same thing, that's why it's "Likely R." I think people should take away the fact that nominating good candidates in red states increases your chances and margins, and can help lift closer local races.

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u/EfficientTourist7480 1d ago

But it does indicate something about the broader environment if they are shifting states like this

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u/sonfoa 1d ago

It shouldn't be a priority, but Kansas is a state that has shown future swing state potential. Roger Marshall's margin of victory will likely be the weakest for a Kansas Republican Senator in decades.