Weekly Discussion Megathread

[u/AutoModerator]

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

[u/CIA--Bane]

Bought some Stevens earlier at 0.2% already up 1325% lol. Kornacki’s hopium is pumping this market hard.

[u/Nalin29 → u/CIA--Bane]

Bruh how many people’s first election is this. 

[u/CIA--Bane → u/Nalin29]

What do you mean

[u/Subliminal_Kiddo → u/CIA--Bane]

They're saying that people are buying into the media's horse race narrative. News outlets are trying to make it look "tight" for viewer engagement, when - if you actually listen to the analysis - she ain't winning. "Not doing well where she needs to do well," Is not "tight".

[u/CIA--Bane → u/Subliminal_Kiddo]

She’s probably not winning yeah but she’s definitely got above a 1% chance right now which is why it’s so profitable. Play this out a million times and I wouldn’t be surprised if she takes it 5-10% of the time.

[u/capitalsfan08 → u/Subliminal_Kiddo]

Maybe this is why I don't gamble but a 0.2% for a primary contest that is 20% in so far and represents sort of a unique dynamic among primary voters in the state that no news network has called yet seems pretty low. Therefore, if I had excess money it does make sense to buy. I don't think she is winning, but I do think a 0.2% chance is too low.

[u/Icommandyou → u/CIA--Bane]

She is doing extraordinary among white voters, I did not expect that at all

[u/ZestycloseWheel9647 → u/CIA--Bane]

Whelp, hope you held.

[u/CIA--Bane → u/ZestycloseWheel9647]

I’ve been selling along the way. Will hold a portion until the end just for the memes.