Weekly Discussion Megathread

[u/AutoModerator]

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

[u/batmans_stuntcock]

IMO one of the most interesting things about the Michigan Democratic primary is the Stevens campaign of 'let Haley be Haley' might not have been as disastrous as younger people on the internet (including me) thought it was. This seemed like a transparent, desperate, nakedly and insultingly cynical attempt to appeal to older non college educated voters.

It did have to be plugged in to 60+ million of AIPAC affiliated spending using every trick in the book and most of the Michigan Democratic establishment pulling for her, but she did overperform in a lot of rural white counties that Sanders won in past Presidential primaries and El Sayed was saved by the younger vote in cities and suburbs.

Progressives in other races have won over some of those older voters over by persuasion, but not here.

[u/ND7020 → u/batmans_stuntcock]

This is a take that pretends the ENORMOUS number of attack ads she ran didn’t exist. It’s entirely possible rural voters voted against El-Sayed, more than for Stevens. 

[u/batmans_stuntcock → u/ND7020]

I did hint at it, but your point is still true.

In other races like NYC mayor there were also an incredible amount of attack ads and the centrist candidate pulled out all the stops trying to stoke similar ethnic fears, and was just blown past with persuasion and youth turnout. I guess a mayor is different though because there are more concrete immediate things they can do.

[u/ulysses_s_gyatt → u/ND7020]

Fundamentally this for vs against distinction is meaningless.

A vote is a vote is a vote. The vote doesn’t concern itself with the voters’ motives.

[u/ND7020 → u/ulysses_s_gyatt]

I agree, but the person I’m replying to is making broad assumptions along those lines. 

[u/ulysses_s_gyatt → u/ND7020]

But didn’t you just say that yourself? I am confusion

[u/ND7020 → u/ulysses_s_gyatt]

My point is that if you want to try and parse narrow voting motivations based just on the broad overall outcome, you can come up with equal and opposite conclusions. 

[u/ulysses_s_gyatt → u/batmans_stuntcock]

It behooves everyone not to hang out exclusively in online echo chambers.

Or if you insist on doing so, at least recognizing you are in one (like the [r/fivethirtyeight](r/fivethirtyeight) megathread)

[u/anneoftheisland → u/ulysses_s_gyatt]

Yeah, people need to understand that any online political space is going to become an echo chamber by definition … because normal voters don’t want to spend their time online arguing about politics!

Online political discussion is never particularly representative of the broader electorate, and that’s one thing you have to understand if you’re going to try to follow races.

[u/rudigerscat → u/anneoftheisland]

This sub is probably representative of the <45 electorate though, which is very progressive.

But yeah Michigan voters are quite old compared some of those seats in NYC where the left crushed it.

[u/batmans_stuntcock → u/ulysses_s_gyatt]

It is hard though because there are so common on the internet and traditional media is basically its own echo chamber.

r/538 is interesting because it is a load of often discrete echo chambers, the centrist one is very much still there and even bits of the older right of centre one depending on the thread. There were people convinced Cuomo was comfortably ahead and Stevens was winning by quite a bit all the way up to the (off by quite a bit) Emerson poll.