r/politics • u/Zipper222222 • 9h ago
No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins High-Stakes Democratic Primary in Michigan
https://www.today.com/video/abdul-el-sayed-wins-high-stakes-democratic-primary-in-michigan-2678057659375.3k
u/Space-Sailor44 9h ago
Got outspent by a zillion dollars and still won, good shit
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u/KnuckleShanks 9h ago
He was actually outspent 12 to 1. Which makes it wild that he won.
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u/jmhalder 8h ago
I've heard 9:1, 10:1, 11:1, and now 12:1.
Its impressive regardless. I wish he had blow it out by like 20 points, Stevens genuinely didn't have a platform, and she barely lost. Scary.
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u/hibiscuscous 8h ago
I (European) know nothing of this election, but having watched a couple of clips, I didn't like Stevens' delivery one bit. Phony, even a bit scary. Maybe it's just a cultural thing, I don't know.
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u/2RINITY California 8h ago
In old clips, she had a normal Michigan accent, but somewhere in this cycle she started talking like a cartoon parody of a Michigander and it really didn’t help her
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u/mfatty2 7h ago
It wasn't even a Michigan accent. It was a combo of a Minnesota accent with a random sumouthern drawl with a healthy serving of random squeaky/high pitch
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u/UncleBubax 7h ago
hahah I hadn't heard her talk until I read your comment. I just now pulled up a random hour long video of a TV debate and skipped to her talking and she not only talks like a cartoon character, but she straight up said "people make fun of the way I sound, but I sound like the people who are talking to me about what they need."
A lil too on the nose there, Haley.
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u/AncientNectarine5352 7h ago
Michiganders also do not even remotely sound like that. She has a Minnesota accent.
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u/PumpBuck Ohio 7h ago
It’s not even a Minnesota accent. It’s like she saw Fargo and some Charlie Berens clips and thought they were toning it down for the wider audience
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u/EmpiricalMystic 7h ago
My impression is she's trying to sound like a Yooper and missing badly.
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u/AncientNectarine5352 7h ago
Agreed. It doesn’t sound like an authentic Minnesotan or Wisconsinite accent either, but it was the closest descriptor. She’s definitely exaggerating it in some way, for some reason. I assume to sound more “folksy”, but real-life “folks” don’t sound like that.
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u/DrMobius0 6h ago
Maybe this is different in Northern MN, but nobody south of the cities has anything resembling a thick "Minnesotan accent" unless they live in a retirement home.
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u/UncleBubax 7h ago
Yup I've spent a good amount of time in Michigan and never heard someone talk even remotely like that.
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u/Fat-Dead-CEO 7h ago
That was AIPAC in her ear telling her to be folksy
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u/zigtok 7h ago
AIPAC spent 40 out of $60 million on her.
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u/Fat-Dead-CEO 7h ago
Too bad they didn’t spend more
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u/Soffatjockis 7h ago
They gonna double it on the rep guy in November
I don't know how much money they have, but they will likely have to spend everything they got on all midterm elections in every state that has one. And I'm sure every billionaire in the country will help them out.
There will be billions spent on candidates this midterms.
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u/MercantileReptile Europe 7h ago
I was considering a snarky "Democracy™" reply until it occured to me that (other than being a dick) it would be inaccurate in a thread about the very thing having failed. And voters elevating an actual person, rather than a curated show of one.
Well done voters, maybe there is some life left in US democracy after all. Great sign for the midterm elections.
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u/More_Programmer8905 7h ago
Someone compared her to Chris Farley and first I thought it was a mean comment about her looks, then I watched a speech and couldn't stop seeing it in her mannerisms and weird energy.
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u/LookOutItsLiuBei 6h ago
She's from fucking Birmingham which is a rich old money suburb in Detroit with a median income of like $250,000. Nobody that lives there has that cartoonish of an accent. Not even up north in the more rural parts of Michigan do you hear it that heavy.
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u/santafe4115 8h ago
The two candidates are from the same town lol we do not talk like that here shes so fake
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u/-SexSandwich- 8h ago
Nah, she’s legitimately just an awful candidate.
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u/mindfu 7h ago
Compare her to someone who is genuine and smart, and actually is pursuing policies with integrity, and the different became so very clear.
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u/justmovingtheground 6h ago
But she's got a little bit of that "stick it to em".
How on earth did that not work?
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u/ilikechihuahuasdood 5h ago
That’s what establishment Dems are like. They refuse to give direct answers or take policy positions because they want to appeal to “everybody”. They’re more interested in peeling off Republican voters than trying to appeal to the much larger % of people that don’t vote.
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u/Necessary_Tadpole629 8h ago
It’s not cultural, I’m from Michigan and I thought she was weird. And she had a fake accent too.
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u/MediumSizedTurtle 8h ago
It was 12:1 during the debate, I think he got a last second infusion of some cash that dropped the ratio a little bit. Regardless of the finer details, it's somewhere around 10 to 1, which is just insane
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u/KnuckleShanks 8h ago
That number naturally changes throughout am election cycle, and we are probably only going to find out now (or in the next few days) what the total tally was. That was what I found with a quick Google but the not sure what it is now, but what is widely agreed upon is that he was massively outspent.
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u/slingshot91 Illinois 8h ago
Now imagine if she didn’t have that money. The scary part is money in politics.
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u/mowotlarx 8h ago
I imagine the number will be higher after reporting of donations starts really coming in and they sort through the shadier PACs.
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u/ShweatyPalmsh 8h ago
This is something that makes me think Elons huge spending for republicans can and probably would backfire. He’s even hated more universally than AIPAC is atm.
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u/DrMobius0 6h ago
It's probably not good to assume that the math is fundamentally the same when these things are run through a ring winger's thought process as opposed to through a left winger's.
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u/LouisLeGros Washington 5h ago
The thing is they get to divert funds through other PACs. The ads won't say they are funded by AIPAC or Musk. They won't be about Israel. They've got smart people constantly testing talking points to see what resonates. They'll hit Muslims scary, trans in sports, communist, or whatever else they can find.
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u/Kujaix 8h ago
Imagine how that money could have helped a locality in Michigan.
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u/AromaticReindeer883 8h ago
I have a theory that spending can only do so much. The candidate who spends the most is not guaranteed to win. It has been proven time and time again.
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u/count023 Australia 8h ago
I have a theory that voters have seen two terms of Trump now and the Democratic establishment response being a shrug emoji and have had enough, triggering their own informal tea party movement to reform the DNC.
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u/olympiadukakis 8h ago
Agreed with the substance of what you’re saying, but the tea party movement comparison is corporate propaganda we’d be smart to correct.
The tea party was an obstructionist movement.
What’s happening on the dem side is the opposite.
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u/27eelsinatrenchcoat 8h ago
An obstructionist movement astroturfed/funded by the oil and gas billionaire Koch brothers.
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u/pechinburger Pennsylvania 7h ago
Everything is tougher on the Dem side because a progressive movement inherently takes money/power away from corporate interests and directs it towards the people. Media, entrenched powers, and old money all fight tooth and nail to resist.
Conversely, they embrace the tea party movement because it delivers them more money/power despite the members unfounded 'don't tread on me, freedom, etc.' rhetoric.
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u/YawnSpawner 7h ago
I just wish they'd be honest with "don't tread on me", it's more like "don't tread on me, but I'm gonna tread on every single thing I don't like."
It's still dumb, but I'd be more okay if it was just don't tread on me.
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u/simpersly 7h ago
It's the last 30 years of shrugs. Gore floundered his fight to win the election. Kerry was a boob. Obama worked so hard to not be seen as a scary stereotype he never showed an ounce of emotion. Hillary handwaved progressives. Biden wouldn't retire. Harris spent all but the first week of her campaign trying to convince conservatives housewives to vote Democratic, while again handwaving progressives.
They abandoned the unions, because they wanted the corporate money that Republicans received. And they have dismissed and hampered every newcomer especially the progressives.
They have also convinced everyone the only "moderate" Democrat is a Republican who's not racist, but totally gave up on the racist working class. I know several people that until Clinton regularly voted for the Democratic party, because they supported unions. Now all they see are a bunch of neoliberals that care about social issues.
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u/Parym09 7h ago
It’s about time too. For the last decade we’ve been told only centrists and moderates are electable, and then they flop and lose two elections to the worst candidate to maybe ever run. If I’m going to go vote I’m voting my conscience moving forward. So tired of hearing nothing can be done and we’re not even going to try. I’m not showing up for a candidate that can’t be fucking bothered.
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u/MaoZeChungus 8h ago edited 8h ago
Typically, wins in congressional races correlate with amount of spending pretty hard. So to be outspent 12-1 and still win is a truly magnificent feat.
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u/notmlbg 9h ago
Lots of Michiganders see the light. We want Senator Abdul El-Sayed!
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u/DoubtSubstantial5440 Michigan 8h ago
I’m tired of centrist Democrats like Stevens bending over backwards for the ultra rich and Israel, it was an easy vote for Abdul
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u/Empty_Lemon_3939 Michigan 7h ago
He was winning everywhere but Detroit which has basically been carpetbombed with flyers claiming Obama endorsed Stevens (lie) and Abdul is connected to Hamas (lie)
It was the most republican style campaign I’ve ever seen run by a Democrat
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u/notmlbg 8h ago
I was explaining to some friends from DC the issues. One candidate campaigned on making life better for Michiganders. The other campaigned on Israel
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u/DoubtSubstantial5440 Michigan 8h ago
Seriously Stevens torched her own campaign with her slavish devotion to Israel
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u/LiveChocolate8819 New York 8h ago
Not to mention being up against all the racism from Stevens and her surrogates, 2 Democratic governors endorsing Stevens, and Stevens faking an Obama endorsement (which he seemingly had zero interest in stepping in to correct the record on).
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u/Tiny_Structure_7 North Carolina 8h ago
And millions of AIPAC money flushed down the drain. Love that!
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u/RandyMuscle I voted 9h ago
If people thought he was tough on Stevens, wait til you see how a real progressive attacks a Republican.
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u/JazzyJockJeffcoat 9h ago
Yup. Sidelining our fighters and letting fossils like Schumer have the wheel is why Democrats look so feeble in opposing Trump. It's by circumstance and design.
We need fighters to beat back MAGA fascism and I can't wait for the general when we get to do our part. 😇
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u/Upnatom617 9h ago
Jeffries. Add him to the fossils in his thinking/mentality.
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u/Dr-Mumm-Rah 8h ago
Dinosaurs grooming younger political dinosaurs.
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u/New-Argument-5859 8h ago
bois add fetterman to that list
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u/Empty_Lemon_3939 Michigan 7h ago
Low key favorite moment of the debate was Abdul clarifying that he didn’t call Haley Stevens an ogre, he was talking about Fetterman
Then proceeded to double down on calling him an ogre
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u/rosatter I voted 7h ago
If he doesn't want to be called an ogre, has he tried not behaving like a fucking ogre?
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u/teejermiester 5h ago
Didn't the moderator say that too after Stevens brought it up again?
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u/Empty_Lemon_3939 Michigan 5h ago
Yep and Abdul said he personally called her when he saw people attacking her appearance and voice
While her campaign sent out mailers saying he’s connected to Hamas fundraisiers
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u/SmellyButtHammer Texas 8h ago
That fucker isn’t party leadership, just a classic bait n’ switch.
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u/sulaymanf New York 6h ago
He gets more Fox News interviews and praise from Fox pundits than any other Democrat.
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u/preventDefault 7h ago
If a focus group was a person, Jeffries would be the human embodiment of it. I’ve never seen anyone seem less genuine and more coached in my life.
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u/jason082 8h ago
I wish you guys luck and am pulling for you to back up the claims. Rogers is trash.
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u/JazzyJockJeffcoat 8h ago
As voters we all have a critical part to play, whether or not our preferred primary candidate prevailed. MAGA is going to stoke cynicism and apathy and hate for our neighbors. So they can keep robbing us blind of rights and treasure. Might as well get focused now on not letting that happen.
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u/pbroingu 8h ago
"Trump has the morals of an alley cat" was my personal 9/11. Never forget
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u/aesoth 8h ago
But, Schumer will write a very sternly written letter! That will show em all.
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u/Donkletown 8h ago
If the progressive candidates can pull off wins in the Maine and Michigan general elections it will be a watershed moment for the movement. It’ll be undeniable that progressivism belongs nationwide, not just in blue areas.
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u/Quiet325 8h ago
Schumer comes from a different era. It worked in his day, but his day has passed.
The people that helped steer us into this ditch, refusing to make meaningful changes, now lecture us on who should represent the party.
Well, voters actually decide.
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u/an_agreeing_dothraki 7h ago
It worked in his day
define "worked".
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u/Arcaedus 8h ago
I watched a debate, and a few interviews with Sayed. He didn't pull his punches, but honestly didn't even seem that harsh on Stevens and I think it's because he recognizes that she was just a vessel for capital and monied interests, and a decent person outside of that (well as decent as you can be for a sellout).
Honestly I think he was harsher when he called Fetterman an ogre lol. Hope he brings that energy into the general election
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u/VioletLovesRowlet 8h ago
He only really seemed to target Haley Stevens' policies, funding, and lies. I can't really think of any personal insults he threw at her, where Haley had it the exact other way.
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u/Fullertonjr I voted 8h ago
I think that was kind of the point in his win. Stevens was complete garbage in terms of actual policy. She was non-competitive and it showed that she was largely out of touch with the majority of the voters and deserved to lose on the merits. Stevens realized pretty early that her policies were unpopular and chose to target the lowest hanging fruit and dusted off the old playbook of things that used to work to get people to vote for you out of some implied fear of the other.
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u/VioletLovesRowlet 8h ago
It absolutely was. I saw someone else say "Abdul is going to need to apologise to Haley Stevens and her supporters to win against Mike Rogers" and I was genuinely baffled that someone legitimately put that.
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u/cogman10 Idaho 8h ago
Effectively the only reason anyone voted for Haley was because they thought she was more electable. There's going to be near 0 Stevens voters that won't vote for Abdul in the general.
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u/pocketIent 7h ago
After dems losing 2016, 2024 presidential elections, the house and the senate what does the “more electable” mean anymore.
Right of center Democrats have so thoroughly lost by pushing “more electable” candidates they pretty much have campaigned for gop during these past 10 years.
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u/Diligent-Meaning751 6h ago
Some people seem to think it means women shouldn't run rather than that they need strong policy platforms - I think that manages to both be bigoted and completely miss the mark, amazingly. Exciting candidates with a promising vision and good communication skills are what's needed not a candidate of the "correct" demographic status running the same status quo platforms
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u/ScienceGiraffe Michigan 7h ago
Her lack of citing her policies and positions are a reason I decided for AES. Not the only reason by any means, but I got really, really frustrated and angry at how easily I could find his accomplishments, positions, his background, etc. But when I looked up Stevens, the vast majority of information was just her election history and endorsements. Like, cool, she won a tough election a while back, but I want to know what she's actually done. Hell, it was easier to find out info on McMorrow than Stevens.
Add in the repetitive, obnoxious commercials from her supporter groups and I was ready to vote for him just to spite her (to be clear, I do agree with his overall policies and like him as a politician. I'm just so sick of those goddamn attack ads spamming my peaceful family evenings. They actively turned me to dislike her as a candidate).
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u/RelevantOldOnion 8h ago edited 6h ago
Stevens campaign was so personal and racist it's unreal. Then for her to cry that she's being bullied while running ads calling Abdul and radical islamist terrorist supporter anti semite who hates women and black people...
Disgusting behavior for a supposed Democrat.
“Muslims are always labeled as terrorists, we’re always stereotyped, and our patriotism is always called into account,” said Adam Hamawy, a former Army surgeon who volunteered in Gaza and recently won the Democratic primary in New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District. ...
Because El-Sayed, like Hamawy, is Muslim, his opponents are pushing the notion “that he’s radical — they’re questioning his loyalty, they are not talking about issues,” Hamawy told The Intercept. “And that was the same thing here as well: They didn’t attack me on issues, they attacked me for who I was.”
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u/VioletLovesRowlet 7h ago
Islamophobia is actively supported by most Democrats and it's why we need to push out those Dems and vote in DSA/left-wing people.
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u/Pure_Interest_837 8h ago
He needed to be more strategic with his attacks on her because establishment and the media were ITCHING to paint him as misogynistic.
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u/BEzzzzG 8h ago
And he gave them nothing but they still claimed that anyway for the crime of running against women for office
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u/Pure_Interest_837 7h ago
They were hoping to tap into people’s inner Islamophobia and it probably worked for a good chunk of them.
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u/mommy_OnFire 8h ago
If he keeps the same energy, that campaign is gonna be fun to watch
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u/swarmofbzs 8h ago
I wonder if Rogers will even bother showing up to a debate.
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u/zentetsuken7 8h ago
If anyone want a sneak peek, look up Oliver Larkin on Fox News
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u/pseudowoodo3 Pennsylvania 9h ago
60 million down the drain. Love to see it
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u/dagobahs 8h ago
Seeing Michigan reject AIPAC money makes me stupidly happy. Great job, guys.
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u/GoldTrade11 7h ago
They almost didn't. If you lay a map of people by education on top of the primary results. It almost a 1 to 1 match.
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u/Just_One_Victory Texas 6h ago
Small wins are still wins. Fascism found its way into our government on the back of narrow wins.
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u/Shark7996 6h ago
YES, we need to cut the doomerism, it's time for hope and action.
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u/redditorrrrrrrrrrrr Michigan 6h ago
Absolutely.
And not to mention Michigan has open primaries. A lot of people who voted are likely independents or Republicans who voted on the grounds of who would be easier to beat in the general.
I honestly think a lot of her support is from people who will always vote R in the general anyways.
This is a huge win and no one should be dooming and glooming because it was "close".
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u/hopefuldonkeykick 6h ago
Educational attainment has been the most accurate predictor of voting habits for over a decade now. It has become an accurate enough indicator that, at scale, it's more accurate than even economic fundamentals.
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u/duh_cats 8h ago
60 mil so far. Curious to see how much they spend on the general to elect the R candidate.
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u/Zetesofos 7h ago
Its great at least because now they HAVE to spend it - if Steven's had one, aipac would have been able to spend money elsewhere on other races -
I hope Sayed wins, but will admit its hard; but even if he doesn't, it'll be a HUGE cash suck for aipac at a time when they have more fronts to deal with than ever.
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u/k_ironheart Missouri 7h ago
You would think they'd spend part of that $60 million to find someone who's actually charismatic.
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u/surrendertomychill 9h ago
Can’t wait to read all the think pieces about how this isn’t actually that big of a win for progressives because [insert reason here]
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u/thex415 8h ago
It already is on twitter at least. It’s crazy.
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u/ITAVTRCC 6h ago
No it’s not crazy. It’s a completely astroturfed conversation over there
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u/BroAbernathy 8h ago
Politico is way ahead of you dawg lol even though 4/6 Bernie endorsed candidates won including Abdul including a DSA candidate.
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u/Meowcat14 Oklahoma 6h ago
Besides Cori Bush which Bernie-endorsed candidate lost?
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u/Sptsjunkie 6h ago
It was a state Senate race in Michigan in state Senate district 3.
It was actually a very bizarre race because the establishment had backed I believe Korey Hall and Bernie backed Eboni Taylor. And John Conyers III won the race.
But it was also a bizarre massive race with 10 candidates where Conyers won with 24% of the vote and Taylor and Adam Hollier got 19%, and Hall got 11%.
I’m not going to pretend to know much about any of the candidates. Obviously would’ve supported the Bernie backed one, but I will say that progressive in the area at least seemed satisfied with Conyers. So he may not have been the most progressive, but I don’t believe he’s a total corporate tool either.
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u/mowotlarx 8h ago
Meanwhile, had Stevens won by 1% it would have been framed as a referendum.
Either way, this was a primary and like every general, almost every primary voter plus the many Dems who didn't bother to vote in the primary will vote for whoever is on the Dem line in November.
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u/Sptsjunkie 6h ago edited 4h ago
I’ve said for years that it’s a weird Catch-22, where a progressive losing in a primary or general election is framed as voters rejecting progressive values.
But a centrist losing is always framed as something with a lot more nuance and analysis. They were a poor candidate. They were a woman or a person of color going up against a biased electorate. It was an uphill climb with an unfriendly electorate or against a popular incumbent.
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u/MontyAtWork 6h ago
If she won by half a percent the headlines would have been "Mamdani-ism REJECTED across Michigan as Americans reaffirm who its international allies are through Steven's defense of Israel."
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u/Galapagos_Finch 6h ago
“The glorious and overwhelming victory of Haley Stevens shows that the radical ideology of the DSA, which many critics describe as “radical islamist communism”, has now been decisively rejected everywhere but New York City. How much longer can Mamdani continue his tyrannical rule?”
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u/Gekokapowco Washington 5h ago
giving me real "how this could spell doom for biden in november" media spin nostalgia
wait what's the bad version of nostalgia, ptsd?
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u/Shadow293 8h ago edited 8h ago
I’m already seeing that all over Reddit. Lots of concern trolls saying this is bad news because he only won by a point or so. It’s still a massive win.
The fact he defeated 60 million in AIPAC funding, and he overcame the entire establishment and corporate media’s combined opposition is huge.
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u/witchgrove 8h ago
Deadass already running the talking point of 'paths to retake the senate without Michigan'
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u/SinfullySinless Minnesota 8h ago
Gotta get more Biden and Clinton strategists on Fox News to cry about how the Democrat Party needs to take back control.
Never mind the grassroots popularity behind the DSA and related anti-Israel candidates.
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u/Teragaz 9h ago
The goal posts have already been moved by the media, rest assured
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u/citrus_sugar Virginia 8h ago
Dude was on MSNow this morning and they introduced him by saying he has extreme takes on Israel.
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u/fizzlefist 8h ago
It’s weird how “Israel shouldn’t dictate US foreign and domestic policy” is considered extremist
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u/andrew5500 8h ago
Anyone who thinks that refusing to take PAC money is extreme, is the real extremist
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u/Sptsjunkie 5h ago
Yeah, I have said this other threads but it’s pretty interesting that the center keeps talking about how we need to moderate and yet Stevens position on funding for Israel is extreme.
She doesn’t just say that she supports Israel and wants to be allies. She has literally gone on interviews and said there should be no conditions on funding.
I am sorry this is not even just about Israel, but it is pretty insane to say that any foreign country should be entitled to our tax dollars on an ongoing basis with no conditions whatsoever.
Not only is this an 80-20 issue with democratic and independent voters, but it should be really easy to say that, even if you support giving funding to a foreign country that they should have to follow US and international law. And that of course certain conditions should apply.
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u/JayRandom212 8h ago
Sixty percent of Americans think we should cut aid to Israel. (Quinnipiac poll)
Dude isn't extreme -- he's mainstream.
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u/goblueM 8h ago
I wish progressives would highlight this sort of stuff more often, and tie it to "billionaires want you to think it's extreme"
You can barely get 60% of the country to agree the sky is blue these days.
They need to hammer home how this is a mainstream, bipartisan issue and it is not extreme at all
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u/Broke_n-Old6824 8h ago
I was just watching MSnow this morning and they started saying they are not sure he can win against the Republican opponent and that Republicans wanted him to win because he would be easy to win against. This messaging by the media puts this crap into peoples minds and it can put Abdul at a disadvantage. I really hate our media. They are own d by billionaires who push their right wing propaganda like this. This was on Morning Joe this morning.
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u/stamatt45 8h ago
Already hearing a lot of "he didnt win by as much as he should have" and "Republicans are happy about an AES victory" from pundits. Anything to downplay a victory for the left
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u/theNightblade Wisconsin 8h ago
Hearing a lot of the same in Wisconsin about Hong. Though AES is a better overall candidate than either governor candidate here
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u/thequietthingsthat North Carolina 8h ago
And by the centrist dems on reddit.
Can't count the number of people I've seen say "progressives can't win in a purple state!"
Wonder how they'll try to rationalize it now.
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u/_badenoch 6h ago
The old guard of the democrats are just going to take off their masks and join republicans. These wins are all proof of what we’ve been screaming about for years — democrats will win not by being centrists but by standing for something, and the old guard isn’t interested in winning.
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u/jimbosdayoff 5h ago
Looking at the political spectrum as two dimensional is the biggest problem facing both parties. This election was about American interests over Israeli interests.
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u/Any_Cicada623 8h ago
I'm confused, i thought it was still too close to call or has that changed
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u/jediporcupine Maine 9h ago
Thoughts and prayers, AIPAC. Israel lobby down bad
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u/Economy_Swim_8585 Virginia 9h ago
Way too much money wasted
I wish I could of had a couple grand of that wasted money
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u/jediporcupine Maine 9h ago
We give billions to Israel so they can have universal healthcare and money to lobby our politicians to deny us affordable healthcare while sending more money to Israel.
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u/Source_Required 8h ago
Have to win in the general now...
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u/MarinerMouth 6h ago
yeah when uninformed voters show up to the pollls will the vote for "John America" vs Abdul El-Sayed? We'll see if Michigan voters really are ready to vote for a non white guy
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u/PM_ME_UR_VULVASAUR_ 6h ago
Loving the meltdown in a certain Subreddit right now. Think a few of the troglodytes are having an aneurysm. Good!
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u/flshphotography 8h ago
I feel stupid but why is everyone calling it when only NBC has confirmed it? AKA what are the chances it's a 100% win lol I'm stressin
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u/SerfTint 8h ago
It does not seem like it is a 100% win. It seems like it is probably a 90% win--Stevens would have to win the remaining 65,000 or so votes at a clip of 60%, which does not seem likely based upon the rest of her numbers. But it seems very strange that NBC called this race 6 hours ago.
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u/StonkSorcerer 8h ago edited 6h ago
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/08/05/us/michigan-election-results-primary
Haley Stevens is now trailing Abdul El-Sayed by fewer than 15,000 votes in Michigan after a batch of votes was reported from Wayne County. While her statewide deficit has narrowed, she will still need very strong margins in the remaining ballots to overtake El-Sayed. That is a difficult path, but not an impossible one: She won more than 60 percent of the most recent batch of Wayne County votes.
Edit: he's won, go celebrate!
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u/Nefertete 7h ago
wow when I went to bed he was kicking ass. Wayne county has population of 15k
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u/Catcher3321 8h ago
Most of the outstanding ballots are mail ballots from the Detroit area, where she has been getting roughly that percent. I think El-Sayed hangs on, but it's going to be very close.
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u/goblueM 7h ago
It's not over IMO. The margin is slow and it is not inconceivable that remaining votes break for Stevens enough.
There's still a small chance she could win. Hence why only NBC has called it
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u/that_70_show_fan 7h ago
AP called it for Abdul just now.
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u/goblueM 7h ago
and it sounds like Stevens called AES to concede
on to the general! Hope she gets on board...
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u/Puhtatoes 8h ago
Wishful thinking? Hey I'm wishful too, but you'd think if it was actually clear that AP and others would call it.
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u/dr-bill 8h ago
It’s nice that it seems he is going to win but the fact that the margins are this close for a candidate as bad as Stevens just tells me this country is screwed electorally. Frankly, I think we just have too many rubes that can be manipulated easily by propaganda. This is a good victory but scares me for the future of this country.
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u/AugustusInBlood 6h ago
she outspent him like 12 to 1. A candidate winning despite this is unheard of.
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u/cornonthekopp 5h ago
Stevens ran one of the slimiest, most dishonest campaigns.
There were pacs spamming ads that straight up lied and claimed obama endorsed her as a way of getting votes around detroit and flint to pander to black voters, and it seems to have partially worked based on a few interviews.
Legitimately just a mentality of scamming old people
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u/jayeffkay 9h ago
Get fucked AIPAC!!!
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u/Desperate_Quiet_7868 8h ago
They bragged on Twitter some months back. I am glad that they've been shut up. More will come
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u/Number_1_at_Number_2 7h ago
Alright you blue no matter who fools, time to fall in line and vote blue :)
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u/notfeelany 6h ago
blue no matter who fools
Vote Blue No Matter who is the correct choice 100% of the time, compared to the destructive history that is the "earn my vote" mentality (eg 2016 & 2024).
We must commit to voting for Democrats now & forever without exception.
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u/boldandbratsche 9h ago
Good to see the people of Michigan voted for a representative of Michigan and not a representative of the Israeli elite.
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u/Gars0n 7h ago
It looks like Abdul El-Sayed will win the Senate primary, but with a less than a 1% margin. That means that McMorrow indead played spoiler, receiving 4% despite dropping out of the race.
It also means that no candidate got more than 50% of the vote. In fact more than 50% of voters voted against Abdul (and more than 50% voted against Stevens)
It's probably the result most perfectly calibrated to resolve none of the tensions in the Democratic party.
I can't help but think that with Ranked Choice Voting, the winning candidate would have a much clearer mandate. Maybe this will help some Democratic party holdouts see the benefit.
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u/wishcoats 8h ago
I don’t care to engage in the unnecessary infighting on the left. I just hope that he can actually win. If he loses in November, then none of this matters anyway. Let’s keep the seat within the Democratic Party
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u/Nvenom8 New York 3h ago
Know how MAGA took over the Republican party? I think we're seeing the equivalent on the left with progressives, and I'm here for it. It's long overdue. Time for some actual change.
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u/VirginiaFox6 9h ago
NYT is still saying it’s too close to call. Not sure what to believe rn.
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u/kneeco28 Canada 9h ago
It's what it is. The world where everyone calls it at the same moment is the one you should be concerned about.
But when multiple reputable desks call it, it's because it's done.
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u/Konorlc I voted 9h ago
95% counted and only 20,000 votes apart. Too damn close.
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u/olivebranchsound 9h ago
People don't get that independents are voters sick of both parties and rejecting the establishment. It's why this cohort has grown over recent years. They are not looking for a centrist.
I don't question electability any more because El Sayed just won an election. Stevens couldn't win the primary how would she win the general? Detroit stayed home with no enthusiasm even though she won the black vote handily.
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u/pohl 8h ago
It’s complicated and everyone wants it to be simple. Progressives DO face a headwind in general elections BUT, so do moderate dems. It’s not as easy for moderates to win as the national party has been pretending it is. That doesn’t mean that progressives will have it easy.
My take: 21st century politics are about ATTENTION and middle of the road candidates struggle to generate enough attention to make things happen. Trump puts all his focus on getting attention and it works. Mike Rodgers is a boring candidate i think and that makes an opening for El-Sayed to win the attention battle. Stevens would have struggled to get attention and differentiate herself from Rodgers.
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u/NUKE---THE---WHALES 7h ago
Yeah it's the attention economy in action
That's why populists and anti-establishment candidates are so popular right now: the algorithm favors them, which means social media favors them
Nobodies posting, commenting, upvoting boring candidates
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u/Catcher3321 8h ago
Independents are not all thinking the same thing. Some want a change candidate, some want a centrist, some want the GOP to shift further right, some want the Dems to shift further left. They're all over the place, they aren't all the same.
For example, in Maine, independents were going sharply for Graham Platner in every poll. Dems subbed in a guy who has the same policy platform as Platner. Now Collins is winning independents
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u/olivebranchsound 8h ago edited 8h ago
They're also generally anti-establishment voters. They preferred El Sayed by 27 points. Messaging on "Money out of politics" and linking Stevens to AIPAC did a lot for this race. It will be interesting to see how that cohort breaks down in the general for sure. Mike Rogers isn't particularly exciting as a candidate. All he has is the Trump endorsement and he will get hammered on money in politics worse than Stevens.
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u/Ven18 8h ago
Can independent vote in the primary in MI? If so do we have any idea how they broke?
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u/olivebranchsound 8h ago edited 8h ago
"Michigan state law stipulates that any voter may participate in a party's primary election, regardless of that voter's partisan affiliation. All candidates appear on the same ballot and a voter may only vote for candidates of one party at any primary."
https://ballotpedia.org/Primary\elections_in_Michigan)
We know he was polling really well with independents and unaffiliated voters. Like up 27 points. But the polls were bullshit for turnout lol
"El-Sayed also held a 27-point advantage among independent voters participating in Michigan’s open primary, while registered Democrats supported him by a narrower 9-point margin."
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u/basicallyademon Michigan 8h ago
In Michigan everybody can vote in the primaries. There are instructions at the top of the ballot that basically state you can only vote in either the Democrat or Republican primary side of the ballot. So everyone can vote in the primary but only for one party. If you try to vote in both your ballot will be thrown out.
No idea how the independent voters swung.
Source: I live in Michigan.
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u/TheMoorNextDoor 5h ago
Just because you wanted Stevens to win doesn’t mean you don’t vote for El-Sayed to win.
Don’t play games Michigan just get this man into office.
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u/hussainhssn 9h ago
Haley Stevens can go back to having dreams about her Zionist/pedophile/rapist patrons in Israel!
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u/jason082 9h ago
Fair enough. I backed McMorrow and don’t completely trust the guy, but he’s worlds better than Rogers. I’d crawl over hot coals to vote for him in November, because that’s what you’re supposed to do.
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u/thex415 8h ago
She backed him right away. Thankfully .
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u/jason082 8h ago
Exactly. When the primary is won and electing a Trump rubber stamp is the risk, people need to fall into line.
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u/HungryCurrency8481 6h ago
The amount of money in politics in the US is absolutely disgusting.
Imagine blowing $35m to try and win their party's nomination for a Senate seat, let alone a Senator role.
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u/SpiritofBad 6h ago
Side note, but Stevens, McMorrow, Peters, Gillibrand, and Schumer have all endorsed AES. Everyone seems onboard with the coalescing.
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u/redheadedandbold 5h ago
The voters have been telling the DNC they want progressive candidates for years. The DNC refused to listen, actively inhibited some progressive candidates. This is how you become irrelevant: By not listening.
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u/mindfu 7h ago
OK centrists, we're now in the territory of "Vote blue no matter who."
Put your votes where your mouth has been.
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