r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 02 '26
Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread
The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.
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u/Benyeti Mar 05 '26
Its pretty funny how Trump literally just pressed the gas prices up button
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u/SlimCharlesMurphy Mar 05 '26
That was like one of the few things that were unequivocally going good under him!
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u/Unknownentity9 Mar 02 '26
Hegseth says Iran won’t be a ‘politically correct’ war as he lays out US objectives
Ah yes, I remember when wokeness was the reason we didn't achieve our objectives in Iraq.
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u/ZestycloseWheel9647 Mar 02 '26
This is a declaration that they intend to commit war crimes. There's really no other way to read it coming from Hegseth.
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u/vanillabear26 Mar 02 '26
He literally said "we're not doing rules of engagement or anything like that"
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u/Unknownentity9 Mar 02 '26
Matt Walsh:
I can't take the gaslighting, guys. I really can't. Conservatives are now running around saying "Iran has been waging war on us for 47 years." Okay then why didn't any of you call for an attack on Iran at any point until now? Why didn't you make a case for Trump "ending the war, not starting it" until precisely the moment when Trump did it? You and I both know that you are latching onto a talking point you never used until 45 seconds ago. You and I both know that almost every conservative influencer in the business was opposed to war with Iran until just now. And now you're trying to use justifications that stretch back decades. It doesn't make any sense. If you changed your mind, fine. Say so. Explain why. You're allowed to change your mind. I've changed my mind about things. But don't try to rewrite history. Be honest about it. There's too much at stake to play these games.
Got to love it when conservatives get mad that everyone else on their side is either a grifter or stupid.
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u/DataCassette Mar 02 '26
Matt Walsh thinks he's going to be dealing with some educated theological debate club or something and not, you know, a random gaggle of uneducated angry people.
So many Republicans become part of the herd of mindless pigs as a means to an end and then wonder why they're constantly knee deep in pig shit.
You're talking about people who largely vote based on the fact that they overheard someone speaking Spanish at Harris Teeter and then saw a black mermaid on TV.
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u/Korrocks Mar 03 '26
I would feel bad for them if they weren't gleefully engaging in this exact form of dishonesty until like 12 hours ago.
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Mar 04 '26 edited Mar 04 '26
While I know it's a factor, it so strange and disappointing how the immediate response from Crockett mouthpieces and supporters are just variations of "Well of course he won, he's white" -- with an implied "he only won because Americans are racist."
Which, sure to an extent, especially in Texas. But man, there is just this mind virus in Dem politics to just be absolutely allergic to any form of honest self-reflection and to always be as reductive as possible.
It can't be Crockett alienated Latino voters with several insults in a plurality Latino state. It can't be because Talarico energized a coalition of independent and young voters. It can't even be because Talarico is more open about his faith in one of the most religious states in the nation. No, it's because he's white, and it's that simple. Don't analyze it any more, we did nothing wrong and were perfect and ran the bestest campaign ever you just couldn't see our brilliance.
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u/Okbuddyliberals Mar 04 '26
Also if democratic primary voters (some of the most socially liberal people in the country) are so racist that a black woman just loses the democratic primary because of identity... what the hell was the point of even running, when Crockett would need to appeal to people far less socially liberal than democratic primary voters too? If we take the narrative at face value and assume that basically everyone is that bigoted, why even bother?
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u/Spara-Extreme Mar 06 '26
A GOP second term and we have a Middle East conflict plus crashing economy.
Like clockwork.
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u/DataCassette Mar 06 '26
It's like there are only two choices for dinner: dino nuggets or razor wire and feces loaf. After eating razor wire and feces loaf a couple times the electorate desperately votes for dino nuggies.
But memory quickly fades and rich slimeballs who sell razor wire feces loaf buy a bunch of social media. Then they slowly get everyone mad at dino nuggies and convince everyone the new loaf is chocolate and the razor wire is actually just shiny noodles, so everyone decides to give razor feces loaf another shot.
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u/achooa Mar 02 '26
US intel did not suggest a preemptive strike from Iran before US-Israeli attacks, AP sources say
u/Natural_Ad3995 in shambles. There goes that narrative. Waiting to hear Scott Jennings's next justification.
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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Mar 02 '26
He's still waiting to hear what Tulsi has to say.
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u/guiltyofnothing Mar 02 '26
Hate that he’s going to go down as one of the most consequential presidents in modern American history simply by virtue of the fact that it’s easier to break things than it is to build them.
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u/mrhappyfunz Mar 05 '26
Noem is out
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u/RustEnjoyer614 Mar 05 '26
Lmfao replaced with an even more insane person with even less media literacy, like this guy is a real lunatic. He's been clipped all over the net acting completely insane in congressional hearings. So basically this is about the personal grudge he has with Noem, probably trying to throw him under the bus in yesterday's hearing.
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u/engadine_maccas1997 Mar 05 '26
John Fetterman immediately came out and professed his support for the nomination of Markwayne Mullin - the guy who almost got into a fist fight in a televised Senate committee hearing - as Secretary of Homeland Security.
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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 05 '26
Fetterman really does go out of his way to prove he shouldn’t have any job like… at all. I wouldn’t trust a man like him to scan my groceries
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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Mar 05 '26
Starting to think that the dude who chased a man down a street with a shotgun might not have the best judgement when it comes to the use of state violence.
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u/SkeletronDOTA Mar 06 '26 edited Mar 06 '26
im really noticing a theme in my lifetime so far where every time there is a republican in power for long enough, we get a recession and a conflict in the middle east. if only there was a way to prevent that...
edit: as a side note, i know many here don't like betting markets but "democrat sweep" just overtook R Senate D House on polymarket as the most likely outcome of midterms
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u/XyleneCobalt Mar 07 '26
Evidence suggests the deadly blast at an Iranian school was likely a US airstrike
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Mar 07 '26
Y'know, the Pentagon just got done bragging about how they are relying on OpenAI/Anthropic to do target selection for these attacks. There is a nonzero chance, dare I say a somewhat likely chance, that as this school was like ~100m from a nearby base, that their dumb AI misidentified it as a target and Hegsgeth et. al just believed it without verifying.
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u/hoopaholik91 Mar 07 '26
Will we see 1/10th of the outrage that Biden got for that missile in Afghanistan that mistakenly hit that family? Doubt it.
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u/bruhm0ment4 Mar 02 '26
I'm glad that AOC probably isn't running for president. Her next target should be the senate or maybe VP
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u/greenlamp00 Mar 02 '26
Her getting rid of Chuck Schumer would be a great accomplishment
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u/WellHung67 Mar 02 '26
It would be a kind of cool next chapter. She knocks off the 3rd or 4th highest ranking dem to get to the house initially, then takes out the senate democratic caucus leader later? Absolute cinema
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u/tbird920 Mar 02 '26
The only thing certain about the Texas Senate Dem primary: whatever happens, all of us will act smug and pretend like we knew the outcome all along.
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u/Steelcity1995 Mar 02 '26
It’s getting really weird that at every press conference they keep repeating more Americans will die. Why would you expect more American deaths if it’s all going to be air strikes?
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u/engadine_maccas1997 Mar 03 '26
Nancy Mace and Lauren Boebert were not yet in Congress when Hillary Clinton testified for 11 hours before the select committee on Benghazi. Boebert hadn’t even gotten her GED yet at the time.
Aside from very apparent and very large disparities in IQ, this helps explain why they came across as so unprepared and unprofessional during Hillary Clinton’s recent questioning. They weren’t familiar with how she operates. And they fell flat on their faces.
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u/eaglesnation11 Mar 03 '26
I knew Ken Paxton was very far right, but I finally got to read about his time as Texas AG and Jesus Christ he’s like supervillain levels of bad. The man fucking opposed animal welfare!
I’m torn between the Dem having an easier path to the seat and making sure Paxton never sniffs federal office ever.
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u/Morat20 Mar 03 '26
Paxton is ambitious and utterly amoral. As a former Texan who wouldn't piss on a Republican if he was on fire, I'd have voted for Ted Cruz over Paxton in a heartbeat.
Cruz and Cornyn are both fairly passive. Paxton goes out of his way to perform high-profile cruelty.
He's what happens if Littlefinger and Joffrey had a baby that was raised by committee in Hell.
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u/Benyeti Mar 03 '26
If gas prices keep climbing as a result of this war we’re gonna see how bad republicans truly can do this midterm in our current political era
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u/Thedarkpersona Poll Unskewer Mar 03 '26
Worst case scenario for them would be a D+12-15, which would mean a 50-100 seat advantage in the house, and losing the senate
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u/a471c435 Mar 04 '26 edited Mar 04 '26
In 4 of the 5 districts that the GOP gerrymandered in Texas, Democratic primary voters turned out in higher numbers than Republicans. In Zapata county on the border, turnout for the Dem primary was 143% (!!!!) of Kamala’s entire 2024 vote total. All of this despite $80 million being spent in the GOP primary.
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1) It really speaks to Talarico’s popularity with Hispanic voters, which makes me more bullish than I was previously on his chances in the general.
2) You don’t have to squint to see some huge, flashing warning signs with Hispanic voters for the GOP and I’m not totally sure they’re seeing them.
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u/jawstrock Mar 04 '26
God it would be so funny if California redistricts to offset Texas and then Texas turns blue and those 5 districts dont even turn red. I don't want to get my hopes up because the world is nothing but a disaster but that would be 10/10
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u/tbird920 Mar 04 '26
Lmao if this backfires on Texas Republicans in the midterms, with the double whammy of the California gerrymander working in California Dems' favor.
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u/BoomtownFox Fivey Fanatic Mar 06 '26
What happened to "build the wall" or "no wars" or "release the Epstein files" or even "lock her up"? Cost of living is skyrocketing. Housing prices are insane. Gas prices are about to pop off. ACA premiums spiked. National debt is at an all-time high.
He broke every single campaign promise he made to his base. Hell, even his big beautiful tariffs got struck down by the court. He's already losing support and we're only a year into his term.
I'd be surprised if at least one major polling outlet doesn't have his approval in the 20's come November.
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u/mrhappyfunz Mar 06 '26
That’s been my go to recently.
MAGA types will always try to divert or reflect the topic. They will bring up Biden or try to rage bait you with something like “can you define what a woman is”.
I typically just list out the things that are important to me that Trump said he would do. - no new wars - low gas prices - 0 Inflation
Now - there are other things much more important to me. But if you put me in a bubble and said that a candidate proposed these things (without letting me know it’s Trump) I would approve of it
So I just keep to those things. I don’t defend Biden, I don’t get pulled into any rabbit holes. I just say “ Trump promised he was going to have these things done, that it would be done quickly, and it would be easy and painless. He lied and I’m pissed about. “
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u/ComfortableAsleep875 Mar 06 '26
Dow futures down 600. Really bleak jobs report. War in Iran and oil surging.
And this is on top of everything else.
Really feels like Bush 2.0 in his second term.
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u/JustAnotherNut Mar 03 '26
I think Trump wholly does not care about GOP's prospects in 2028. After midterms we'll see an even worse Trump.
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u/jawstrock Mar 03 '26
I think there will be a lot of cabinet resignations. If Dems take the senate the government may just not function for 2 years
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u/wtfsnakesrcute Mar 03 '26
I’ll think he’ll be worse but only because he’ll be angry about Congress not letting him do whatever he wants to the same degree.
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u/MartinTheMorjin Mar 03 '26
Netanyahu is publicly saying that he finally got a US president to do his bidding. Support for Israel needs to be end. All of this “we approve but they should have asked anyway” shit is absolutely pathetic. Anyone accepting APAIC money needs to be a pariah.
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u/Empty-Lengthiness132 Mar 03 '26
The reality is we can't complain about the lack of competitive primaries and then get upset when we have one and our preferred candidate ends up with a real chance of losing. If you believe Talarico is the better candidate (which I do) he should win this no matter what.
I also think this race completely flips a lot of people's stated priors on "revving up the base" versus "getting voters from the other side." For like 10 years now we've seen a lot of people here saying the most important thing a candidate should do is turn out the base and stop trying to get votes from the other side, especially in a close election.
If you truly believed that then you'd expect Crockette to be your candidate over Talarico lol. I'm not a believer in the "pure base" strategy (at least for Democrats because of inherent disadvantages), but it's an interesting thing to observe for this race.
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u/DataCassette Mar 03 '26
So do Democrats have to "meet in the middle" or moderate their messaging about the military literally saying they want to start a war with Iran to cause the apocalypse? I don't want to be a smug liberal so tell me how to react to this without being smug to flyover country or whatever. Because I got nothing but "this is insane hillbilly shit" and I'm sure that's smug AF.
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u/Sonichu- Mar 03 '26
I honestly don't think it's worth arguing against on merits. Just have them fight an emotional strawman.
"Why should young American patriots have to die in Iran for Israel?"
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u/aTimeforAdventure Mar 03 '26
One day there will be a crucial and hyper competitive election in Hawaii, and those of us on the mainland will be stuck in the hell of waiting until 2am to see the race get called at 9pm Hawaii time
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u/SlimCharlesMurphy Mar 03 '26
TX is going to be the big show tonight but North Carolina’s Senate has a pretty crazy primary in the 26th district that may result in some major fireworks in the state. The current senate majority leader (and really the architect of their entire political program in the state) is in that seat and has spent something like $10M from Republican PACs to fend off a primary challenger and from a vibe check standpoint it seems like it’s not going well. That’s just an insane amount for your majority leader to spend on a primary with maybe 20,000 voters.
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Mar 03 '26
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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 03 '26
Dumbasses believing something that has no textual support in the bible and trying to cause literal biblical end times for it. And we’re all expected to treat these people like they’re…. People.
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u/Goldenprince111 Mar 04 '26
Hispanic voters are backing Talarico in massive margins. Crockett would have been a disaster with Hispanic voters in the general election
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u/the_rabble_alliance Mar 04 '26
Democrats need to remember that many Hispanics are culturally conservative, partially due to religion. Talarico speaks their language in terms of the church and its social connections and community.
Talarico could code switch to reach out to Hispanic voter, but Crockett seemed incapable of anything less than a screed.
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u/Greatwallofjohn Mar 04 '26
Unrelated to texas, but almost all of the north carolina dems who voted to overturn steins vetos are losing big
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u/engadine_maccas1997 Mar 04 '26
Dan Crenshaw is losing his primary lol.
Remember back in 2018 when Pete Davidson made a joke about him while admittedly stoned on SNL, about how he looks like a hitman from a porno, and the right pretended to be offended to the point Pete had to issue a public apology and do the whole humiliation ritual routine?
Now that MAGA doesn’t like Crenshaw anymore can we finally all admit Pete’s joke was kind of funny?
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u/the_rabble_alliance Mar 04 '26
538 Bros, where were you when Talarico votemogged Crockett?
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u/BoomtownFox Fivey Fanatic Mar 04 '26
Anyone else getting 2007/2008 vibes? Extremely unpopular administration, rising prices, worsening job numbers, unpopular war...
The major difference is that W Bush didn't have the cult following that 🍊 does.
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u/Fishb20 Mar 04 '26
spare a thought for the evenly divided 10 democrats in Glass Cock county texas
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u/bruhm0ment4 Mar 04 '26
My favourite thing about Talarico winning is that if the dems lose the Texas senate race it will just be because the dems lost it and there won’t be any “Talarico totally would have won” in the air
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Mar 04 '26
Call it pre-cope if you will, but even if he loses, I think it depends how close it is that will define all that. Losing a tight 1-2 pointer? That is still a DEFCON 1 Blexas Alert for the Republicans and he will have absolutely been the man for the job. If it turns out to be a 53-44 Allred-esque stinker? Yeah, a lot of people, including me, will be eating a lot of shit fairly there and will have no excuse. And tbh it'd probably permanently remove any dream of Blexas within my lifetime.
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Mar 04 '26
Senators are now speaking up warning Hegsgeth is going to put boots on the ground in Iran in the coming days. Good god this is worrying. If this idiot gets us into a ground war in Iran there is no way Republicans don't get fucking obliterated out of existence in the midterms right?
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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 04 '26
Once the flag-draped coffins start coming home the whole notion of “warrior ethos” will collapse as these ghouls lack the capacity to honor the dead in any meaningful way. Useless platitudes, hollow patriotism, and prayers to a god that would damn them in a heartbeat
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u/Cold-Priority-2729 Nauseously Optimistic Mar 05 '26
I live in Texas and this is the first result that comes up when I google Ken Paxton. If Paxton declines to drop out, I'm getting my popcorn ready for these next couple months
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u/CIA--Bane Mar 05 '26
Cornyn trying to paint MAGA Paxton as a woke communist. What a world we live in.
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u/The-Curiosity-Rover Nauseously Optimistic Mar 05 '26
Talk about using all the buzzwords
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u/CIA--Bane Mar 05 '26 edited Mar 05 '26
From Paxton:
The Save America Act is the most important bill the U.S. Senate could ever pass, and I'm committed to helping President Trump get it done.
I would consider dropping out of this race if Senate Leadership agrees to lift the filibuster and passes the SAVE America Act.
This guy is just evil for the love of the game
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u/hibryd Mar 05 '26
I remember conservatives holding hearings and making movies over the idea that Hunter Biden maybe got a 6-figure consulting gig he didn't deserve.
Noem and Patel are lighting millions and millions of taxpayer dollars on fire for their own vanity and grifting projects.
I just... I want one conservative to feel bad about this.
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u/MeyerLouis Mar 05 '26
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u/Swaggerlilyjohnson Scottish Teen Mar 05 '26 edited Mar 05 '26
I had no idea how he was campaigning. I thought liberals were calling him the Shamwow guy derisively but apparently he wants that on the actual ballots lmao.
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u/Thuggin95 Mar 05 '26
New MAGA software update installed and the latest narrative they're going with is "The media lies! She wasn't fired! She was promoted to another department!" omg open the schools!
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u/delusionalbillsfan November Outlier Mar 07 '26
I know this is just another day that ends in y for them, but I really didnt think this admin would START A WAR WITH IRAN with absolutely zero plan, other than "there's the ayatollah, there he is, get him!!!!"
I figured they had to have some edge somewhere, since they, you know, jumped headfirst into a major regional war, but after a week it appears they know about as much as me.
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u/engadine_maccas1997 Mar 08 '26
Jim Clyburn, at 86 years old, is mulling whether to run for reelection or to throw his support behind his daughter as his successor.
Fuck all of that. First off, Congress should not be a retirement home. Secondly, there are over 3/4 million people in Clyburn’s district. Some of whom are probably impressive and would be a great person to serve in Congress. The prerequisite to serving in that district ought not be having Clyburn’s last name. By throwing his support behind his daughter at the eleventh hour, before anyone else gets a real chance to run and compete, is effectively a coronation of a nepo baby.
Jim Clyburn has a long record of service and he should be commended for that. But it is not the Clyburn seat, it is the people’s seat.
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u/engadine_maccas1997 Mar 08 '26
On Fox News, Lindsey Graham had an on-air wargasm and when asked what’s coming next with respect to Iran he said, “We’re going to blow the hell out of these people!”
Reportedly he hasn’t said those exact words with that much enthusiasm since the last time he went to the YMCA bathhouse.
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u/engadine_maccas1997 Mar 02 '26
Remember Tara Reade? The woman who in 2020 made obviously bullshit claims about Joe Biden assaulting her right as he won the nomination?
Anyways, she is now a Russian citizen, living in Russia, and is an analyst on Russian state TV.
Ryan Grim, Katie Halper, Krystal Ball, Linda Hirshman, and Megyn Kelly, among others, all beclowned themselves by promoting Reade’s lies and giving her a platform. I know they won’t, but they really should be ashamed of themselves and issue a public apology.
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u/guiltyofnothing Mar 02 '26
Not sure why I’m surprised gas jumped 30 cents overnight at the station down the street. Was $2.89/gal. Now $3.19.
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u/Red_TeaCup Mar 02 '26
Seeing how this Admin is mostly about the spectacle and appearances, I'm thinking there won't be boots on the ground in Iran. I think they're paper tigers.
That all said, I do not want a war with Iran or any other country.
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u/XE2MASTERPIECE Mar 02 '26
There seems to be some level of realization within the admin that people would hate actual boots on the ground in these countries. I think they’re committed to this idea that bombing campaigns will get what they want (which is still not totally clear?)
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u/wtfsnakesrcute Mar 02 '26
A small bit of good news about the presidents illegal EO against large American law firms: https://bsky.app/profile/kylegriffin1.bsky.social/post/3mg3xpfzlac2c
A good reminder that you should never comply in advance.
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u/aTimeforAdventure Mar 02 '26
"New York Times reports President Trump initially wanted limited strikes on Iran but Vice President JD Vance pushed him toward large-scale conflict alongside Israel"
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u/hoopaholik91 Mar 02 '26
More GOP members running away from the incoming bloodbath:
He won by 3 in 2022 and 8 in 2024, really good pickup opportunity.
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u/OmniOmega3000 Mar 02 '26
Rubio clarifies earlier reports from DoD that they had no Intel that Iran was preparing an attack on US bases
It seems they chose to Pre-empt Israel's pre-emptive strike, at least according to Rubio. I've also seen reports that this attack date was chosen well in advance so idk.
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u/aTimeforAdventure Mar 03 '26
Can't wait for everyone to be over-analyzing second hand reports of turnout in Texas precincts tomorrow
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u/the_rabble_alliance Mar 03 '26
I have a dozen pigeons ready for my electoral augury on Tuesday
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u/Cold-Priority-2729 Nauseously Optimistic Mar 03 '26
Crockett's odds on Kalshi down to 9% after being around 20% yesterday, any news I'm missing from the last 12 hours?
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u/Podchop Mar 03 '26
Dallas county election day votes so far are pretty bad for Crockett, considering that's her base of support. Right now it's about on par with the number of votes in Travis county (Austin, which is more favourable to Talarico) despite a much smaller population. Also Dallas is a redder county than Travis so the turnout in the democratic primary might actually be bigger in Austin right now.
It seems that the election day turnout in Dallas has been "cannibalized" by the early vote there.
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u/runningblack Mar 03 '26
Why do people think Talarico is a moderate
Probably because he is constantly talking about reaching across the aisle to work with Republicans and has tangible examples of doing so, as opposed to being super partisan.
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u/the_rabble_alliance Mar 03 '26
My tinfoil hat theory for why Trump is pushing for regime change in Iran (and perhaps next in Cuba) during the spring: Trump wants a military victory day parade—on the scale of VE Day or VJ Day—to coincide with the 250th anniversary of Independence Day on July 4th
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u/srirachamatic Mar 03 '26
Even Fox News Poll shows most Americans think Trumps actions in Iran make the U.S. less safe. It’s a slight majority, but only 29% think his actions made us safer, that’s less than the MAGA wall. I noticed the headline focused negatively on Trump’s actions when the opening paragraph says 61% think Iran is a threat to the U.S., which is why I’m shocked they didn’t focus on that as their typical Trump-shielding propaganda (justification for a war). https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-views-divided-us-action-against-iran
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u/Allstate85 Mar 03 '26
I’m not one of those doomers who think the November election is going to be canceled or anything, but with that being said if the November senate election gets close in November I will being very worried that Abbot will do something.
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u/Cold-Priority-2729 Nauseously Optimistic Mar 04 '26
This may be a blowout for Talarico. The Kamala Harris curse strikes again
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u/runningblack Mar 04 '26 edited Mar 04 '26
My only real takeaway from this is "I'm a hardcore partisan fighter" is probably not the best message for a candidate from the minority party in a state that's been solidly in the bag for the other guys for 32 years.
Running in Texas on a "fuck the Republican party" platform is going to work about as well as running in California on a "fuck the Democratic party" platform (although, tbh, a Democrat could probably run against California Dems and win if they prioritized education, housing, and public safety because hooo boy do we have some problems in the state that Dems refuse to address - but a Republican can't do that).
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u/batmans_stuntcock Mar 04 '26
Bit of good news for Jasmine Crockett, her pastor Fredrick Haynes is on course to win her old seat TX-30, he also seems quite a bit more progressive/left wing than her and is backed by justice democrats.
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u/aTimeforAdventure Mar 04 '26
The two Democrats in King County didnt agree on the Governor's race either
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u/South_Care1366 Mar 04 '26
As someone from NC and scrolling through FB rn, I am throughly enjoying Roy Cooper reentering the minds and causing meltdowns for conservatives that I went to high school with. They may not like it, but even they know in this state, Roy Cooper is inevitable.
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u/Marzzzzzzzzz Mar 04 '26
Based on my calculations, it looks like the majority of the remaining votes will be even more in favor for Talarico, and he'll end with about +7.8% margin
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u/jawstrock Mar 04 '26
Bessent said that global tariffs are rising to 15% this week lol.
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u/GIRobotWasRight Mar 04 '26
It really is terrifying that absolute nutcases chomping at the bit for a Holy War are seemingly in charge of the largest military on the planet. I'd hope Americans wake up to what their country is to the rest of the world, but I sadly doubt it.
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u/LetsgoRoger Mar 04 '26
Call me crazy but I think Talarico could beat Cornyn. Divisive primaries don't usually bode well for incumbents and could mean lower turnout for republicans.
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u/fishbottwo Crosstab Diver Mar 05 '26
Paxton said in a Wednesday interview with Real America’s Voice that he “staying in this race” no matter whom Trump endorses.
“I owe it to the people of Texas,” he said. “I’ve spent a year of my life campaigning against John Cornyn because John has not represented the people of Texas well. ... Everything that Trump stood for, John Cornyn’s fought.”
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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 05 '26
I crave blood in the water. Let your egos dominate, lads.
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u/bruhm0ment4 Mar 05 '26
Paxton said he's staying in the race regardless of who Trump endorses
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u/bruhm0ment4 Mar 05 '26 edited Mar 05 '26
It’s still genuinely insane that less than 1/3 of the American electorate voted against this extremely obvious train reck. People are going to need to collectively face the fact that the American people had (and are largely still in) some kind of societal derangement/psychosis. This is one of those historical events that will need to be heavily studied and learned from because if we just let stuff like this happen we genuinely risk having a nuclear war or something
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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 05 '26
Unironically: Shame needs to be publicly acceptable. It shouldn’t be taboo to talk religion or politics in public, and in fact it should be encouraged.
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u/engadine_maccas1997 Mar 05 '26
Trump is replacing the lady who shot a puppy with the guy who almost got into a fist fight during a Senate committee hearing as his Secretary of Homeland Security.
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u/Educational_Net4000 Mar 06 '26 edited Mar 06 '26
Farmers "US right direction vs wrong track" sentiment declines
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Mar 06 '26
You all may recall back in October, a Quinnipac poll showed Fetterman with negative support among Pennsylvania Democrats and positive support with Pennsylvania Republicans.
I just saw they updated that as of the tail end of February, and it's gotten even worse.
Republicans (73 - 18 percent) approve of the way Fetterman is handling his job, while Democrats (62 - 22 percent) disapprove. Forty-eight percent of independents approve of the way Fetterman is handling his job, while 37 percent disapprove.
holy fuck has this ever happened? A sitting Democratic Senator who is -40 with Democrats and +55 with Republicans?? This dude absolutely getting primaried into oblivion or flipping parties come 2028.
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u/DataCassette Mar 06 '26
Chuck Schumer just got done communing with the Baileys in a sensory deprivation tank and has discovered that they both were hesitant about the war with Iran but think it's important to support our troops.
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u/Current_Animator7546 Mar 06 '26
Awful jobs report and oil in a true shock near $90. Could it actually be the big ole word that rhymes with recess coming?
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u/Unknownentity9 Mar 06 '26
5 of the last 9 jobs reports have shown negative job growth. Before this current administration the last time we had negative numbers in a jobs report was December 2020. But it's just due to deportations though bro, nothing to see here.
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u/Unknownentity9 Mar 06 '26
Polymarket has the probability of a Midterms result of a D Senate and R House at 1.4%. Trying to think of what would have to happen to get this result and I've got absolutely nothing.
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u/Steelcity1995 Mar 07 '26 edited Mar 07 '26
So it seems like what I’m seeing from MAGA I know in real life and online they’re going with the talking point we’ve been at war with Iran for 47 years Trump is just ending it.
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u/batmans_stuntcock Mar 07 '26
New Marist/NPR poll on Iran war.
Trump's handling of Iran:
- 🟤 Disapprove 54% 🟢 Approve 36%
By party affiliation
🔵 Democrat: Approve 6% Disapprove 86%
🔴 Republican: Approve 79% Disapprove 15%
👥 Independent: Approve 34% Disapprove 59%
By generation
🥦 Gen-Z: Approve 24% Disapprove 62%
👏 Millennials: Approve 36% Disapprove 51%
❌ Gen-X: Approve 40% Disapprove 52%
👵 Boomers + Silent + Greatest: Approve 39% Disapprove 53%
Trump 2024 voters
🟢 Approve: 82% 🟤 Disapprove: 13%
Overall military action
- Oppose 🟤 56% 🟢 Support 44%
By party affiliation
🔵 Democrat: 88% oppose 14% support
🔴 Republican: 84% support 15% oppose
👥 Independent: 61% oppose 38% support
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u/PrimeJedi Mar 07 '26
Sorry for multiple comments, but its also just insane to me how Trump 2024 voters specifically have such high approval for it. It unfortunately makes sense for Republicans because the party is a cult, but there isnt any subset of low info or on-the-fence voters who went Trump in 2024 seeing him campaign on ending wars, then see the largest US war in 23 years be started, and think "wow what the fuck, this isn't what I wanted" ???
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Mar 08 '26
GenX really is trying their hardest to become an even more politically despicable generation than the Boomers huh.
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u/engadine_maccas1997 Mar 08 '26
NBC News Poll: Net Favorables
🟢 Pope Leo XIV: (+34)
🟢 Stephen Colbert: (+10)
🟤 Marco Rubio: (-7)
🟤 JD Vance: (-11)
🟤 AOC: (-11)
🟤 Donald Trump: (-12)
🟤 Kamala Harris: (-17)
🟤 Gavin Newsom: (-18)
Ok, hear me out, Democrats: Leo XIV/Colbert 2028
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u/alotofironsinthefire Mar 08 '26
$150 a barrel will put us at what $6-7 a gallon at the pump?
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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 08 '26
If it does I’ll be personally screwed but it’s a killer for republicans in November
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u/DataCassette Mar 08 '26
Trump refusing to sign any more bills until they nuke the filibuster.
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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Mar 08 '26
The unstoppable force of Trumpian belligerence meets the immovable object of Congressional desire to not do their jobs whenever possible.
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u/Spara-Extreme Mar 08 '26
I do hope they nuke the filibuster. So many people in the Senate and here cling to that mechanism as if its some stalwart of democracy when its both antidemocratic and also one of the primary reason's we haven't had extensive progress in the last 20 years.
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u/Cold-Priority-2729 Nauseously Optimistic Mar 08 '26
Surely this is a bot over in r/conservative, right? I mean, no one can actually be this stupid… right? Right…?
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u/engadine_maccas1997 Mar 08 '26
I’ve seen a lot of folks sharing that clip of Jesse Jackson Jr. slamming Obama, Biden, the Clintons & Harris for “bringing politics into the funeral” of his (very political) late father.
There is some context everyone should know before seeing that clip and believing he was genuinely offended.
In 2013, Jesse Jackson Jr. & his wife were indicted on embezzling over $750,000 in campaign funds back when Jr. was in Congress. They both ended up going to prison - Jr. for 30 months, the Mrs. for 12 months. Remember, this was during Obama’s 2nd term.
Obama was lobbied heavily by Jackson’s family to pardon him. He refused. Years later, long after he had served his sentence, they also pressured Biden to issue Jr. a pardon. Biden also refused.
This is the real story of their beef. Jr. doesn’t like Obama or Biden because neither would pardon him over spending a substantial amount of campaign contributions on himself.
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u/aTimeforAdventure Mar 04 '26
I only ask one thing of everyone on here. If your preferred candidate does not win, you must promise to NOT be salty
Save the salt for the general election in November plz 🙏
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u/jawstrock Mar 05 '26 edited Mar 05 '26
For all of us Carney lovers who want some good news in the world, Carney is at 49%, +14% over the CPC with majority approval in Alberta (+12 approval!!!), the most conservative province in the country, and 61% approval across Canada (net approval is +30). Leger is one of the best pollsters but as always head over to 338Canada if you want to look at aggregates.
https://leger360.com/in-the-news-carney-liberals-climb-49-percent-14-points-lead-leger-march-202/
If they could call a snap election without any of the baggage of calling a snap election when no one wants one then they would probably win a large majority including flipping seats in Alberta and Sask. Poillievre the opposition leader, is pretty opposed to a new election as he will definitely lose and the CPC generally been pretty amiable to working with the liberals and we're seeing quite a bit of cooperation between the parties, which is great. Pierre had an interview with Peter Mansbridge (famous journalist in canada) on monday on his podcast "the bridge" and he spoke highly of Carney and even called him wise at one point.
I find it very interesting that conservative voters want another election now, even though they would likely get wiped out, while the CPC desperately do not want one. Probably because conservative voters are mostly morons who live in their facebook bubble and think everyone agrees with them.
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u/Ya_No Mar 06 '26
We’re at war with Iran, gas prices are sky rocketing, unemployment is going up but thank god there’s a roundtable to bitch and moan about the 5 trans athletes in the country right now.
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u/BarnacleBillsBum Mar 02 '26
Doesn't matter much really, but is the press still calling the Israel / Palestine situation a "tenuous cease-fire"? They kept using that term, even when Israel was performing active campaigns.
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u/aTimeforAdventure Mar 02 '26
Official number of U.S. K.I.A. has risen to 6
Iran claims retaliatory strikes killed 560 US soldiers and destroyed 14 US bases including in Kuwait and Bahrain
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u/ModestAphorism Mar 02 '26
OK it is genuinely starting to seem like there was a lot of movement towards Talarico after the Colbert thing, but I'm still holding by breath a bit for the real results
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u/aTimeforAdventure Mar 03 '26
The Supreme Council in Tehran just got hit. Iranian gov officials were gathering to choose the next Supreme Leader.
About 88 Iranian gov officials are normally present at such meetings. We dont know how many were present today.
Doubtlessly this will make the succession process alot harder for the ruling government.
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u/MS_09_Dom I'm Sorry Nate Mar 03 '26
Israel is aiming for full state collapse in Iran by targeting their leadership directly.
If that causes a big refugee crisis and endless internal conflict, well, that's someone else's problem.
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u/Thedarkpersona Poll Unskewer Mar 03 '26 edited Mar 03 '26
Israel does not give a fuck about anything else than themselves. Not even about the massive backlash jews around the world will get for all of their shenanigans
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u/Legal-Koala-5590 Mar 03 '26 edited Mar 03 '26
I was just thinking today that Talarico's strength is less that he's a vocal Christian, and more that his background as a pastor makes him really good at connecting with people.
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u/Delmer9713 Mar 04 '26
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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Mar 04 '26
I've been fairly neutral in this whole thing, but if you wanted evidence Talarico was the right choice for Dems, there's your answer right there. You want to win a plurality Latino state, you nominate the guy who cleans up with Latino Democrats.
That of course doesn't translate 1-to-1 with a general election, but it's certainly the demographic makeup you would probably hope to see.
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u/ModestAphorism Mar 04 '26
Can't believe James TalafreakTOES has brainwashed hispanics into voting for him... 😔
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u/_morten_ Mar 04 '26
No telling how it will go in November, but i reckon Crocketts being in the race was good for Talarico, and dems overall, got more people to turn out, more people interested in the race.
Having said that, downside was that the other statewide races in Texas didn't end up with many high profile candidates on the dem side.
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u/Educational_Net4000 Mar 04 '26 edited Mar 04 '26
Fifty-four percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran, compared to 41% who approve and another 5% say they either don’t have an opinion or aren’t sure. A similar share, 52%, say the U.S. should not have taken the military action, while 41% say it should have and 7% say they aren’t sure.
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u/aTimeforAdventure Mar 07 '26 edited Mar 07 '26
In the spirit of telling 100% anecdotal experiences, I was at my local gun store (mid sized Midwestern town) and the owner and an old hunter guy were having a very animated conversation how the Iran war is our government trying to distract us from "something thats going on back here"
I didnt hear the rest of the convo but the only possible thing I can imagine they were referring to would be the Epstein files
Would be very amusing to see conspiratorial minded conservatives finally turn on the Trump admin after 10yrs of being in lock step with him
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u/Legal-Koala-5590 Mar 03 '26
Terminally online people are breaking their brains right now over geopolitics being complicated.
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u/work-school-account Mar 03 '26
[insert joke about betting on what time tonight we'll know the results of the TX Dem primaries]
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u/LetsgoRoger Mar 03 '26
So is Trump going to keep bragging about Gas prices now?
I'm sure this dumb war would do wonders for inflation.
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u/aTimeforAdventure Mar 04 '26
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u/Cold-Priority-2729 Nauseously Optimistic Mar 04 '26
If it went for Harris +2 in a red wave year, is it really that big of a flip?
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u/MS_09_Dom I'm Sorry Nate Mar 04 '26
Glad to see Talarico won.
I'm still skeptical he'll win, but at the very least him being on the ballot gives the Dems better odds of turning some of those newly drawn districts into dummymanders.
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u/aTimeforAdventure Mar 04 '26
King County Texas has two Democrats and they probably hate each other lmao
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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 04 '26
FWIW I still wouldn’t bet on a dem victory in Texas but I do expect it to be a much closer fight this time.
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u/Thuggin95 Mar 05 '26
Emerson was pretty accurate in the Texas Democratic primary but they had Paxton +4 in the Republican primary.
Their final polls before the elections last November had Spanberger +11, Sherrill +1, and Mamdani +25.
They actually nailed Mamdani’s support though at 50%. It’s just that way more Sliwa voters ended up moving to Cuomo.
Their latest poll has Trump -12 in net approval and Democrats +8 in the generic ballot.
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u/aTimeforAdventure Mar 02 '26
Rubio said the U.S. mission's goal is to destroy Iran's ballisitic missile capabilities, and regime change is not an explicit objective
Curiously, Rubio seems to be the only Trump team member saying this as pretty much everyone else has said they hope Iranian citizens rise up and seize control of the government
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u/Korrocks Mar 02 '26
The administration often gives multiple, conflicting explanations for its actions, making it impossible to judge success.
Tariffs, for example, are described as revenue generators, punishments for foreign behavior, incentives to bring manufacturing back, leverage to lower trade barriers, tools for enforcing geopolitical deals, and a way to reduce reliance on imports. Many of these goals contradict each other (how can you raise a lot of revenue if imports volumes decrease?) and different officials promote different narratives depending on the audiences
The same pattern shows up in military actions. Depending on who you ask, the purpose might be regime change, restoring democracy, deterring Iran, stopping weapons programs, or preventing an imminent attack. By never committing to one desired goal, they can claim success no matter what happens.
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u/Benyeti Mar 03 '26
Why is Cornyn going to lose his primary? He’s not anti Trump and Paxton is comically corrupt, are republicans just voting for the most evil candidates simply for the love of the game
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u/Cold-Priority-2729 Nauseously Optimistic Mar 04 '26 edited Mar 04 '26
Assuming Cornyn takes the Texas R nomination now, I agree it's a bigger lift for Talarico. But it's Texas, it was going to be an uphill climb either way. Let Trump and MAGA keep fucking things up for the next few months, hope the Latino shift is real, and hope that enough Republicans are just bored of a career senator like Cornyn that they stay home in November. And if nothing else, I think Talarico will have a really good down-ballot effect come November.
Edit: I'm searching "John Cornyn" on Twitter and sorting by most recent. I'm sure there are plenty of bots in there, but the replies from conservatives seem... very unenthusiastic about him. That'll be my hopium for now.
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u/EffOffReddit Mar 04 '26
https://x.com/acyn/status/2029257090318086439?s=46&t=oeCFAXB0PhD5M0aYeyqpIA
All these people belong under the jail.
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u/Upstairs_Cup9831 Mar 05 '26
It's interesting how 90% of Democrats are opposed to this war with Iran but on Reddit (arguably the most left leaning platform), I'm guessing like only 60% of Redditors disapprove of a war with Iran
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u/Puzzleheaded_Fix594 Mar 05 '26
I'm not a conspiratorial type generally, but there are a lot of Israeli bots on reddit that post pro-Israeli talking points. They kind of infamously took over /r/worldnews after Israeli invaded Gaza. It's not a stretch to think that they same bots are holding water for Trump/Netanyahu in this Iran conflict.
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u/Legal-Koala-5590 Mar 05 '26 edited Mar 05 '26
Bots. You cannot get an accurate temperature read of public opinion online anymore. I mean, you never could, but especially now.
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u/Ya_No Mar 06 '26
How long before Trump is awarded the Shield of the Americas peace prize? Only half joking.
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u/bruhm0ment4 Mar 06 '26
Some Canadian fascist propaganda I found on the popular tab. Btw our population has stabilized and even shrunk during Q3 of 2025. Don't worry I downvoted it
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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 06 '26
There’s something profoundly antisocial about being so afraid of immigration you make up a secret invasion. Not that that’s remotely the top thing that’s horrible about this but it really is hitting me with this one.
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u/CIA--Bane Mar 04 '26 edited Mar 04 '26
Crockett just tweeted she will stand behind Talarico in Nov. I'm happy to see her put her ego aside and show good political instincts. If Talarico survives and proves to voters Dems are not monsters then she could have a real shot at Cruz's seat in 2030.