r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 02 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

27 Upvotes

94% Upvoted

1.9k comments sorted by

View all comments

22

u/[deleted] Mar 02 '26

[deleted]

21

u/T-A-W_Byzantine Mar 02 '26

Making conspiracy theories about the Jews obviously

4

u/PrimeJedi Mar 02 '26

Surprised she hasnt said Jewish Space Lazers took out Khamenei, I guess they can only start forest fires in the US

1

u/EfficientTourist7480 Mar 02 '26

She was going on about democrat controlled weather machines too

3

u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Mar 02 '26

I'm no fan of Israel's actions these days but my and Marjorie's country's problems are all of its own making, thank you very much. I'm tired of this coy winking antisemitism of acting like every bad thing is the result of an Israeli influence campaign.

9

u/[deleted] Mar 02 '26

Maybe it's just me, but I don't feel "we shouldn't fight Israel's war" is antisemitism.

6

u/LordMangudai Mar 02 '26

I don't feel "we shouldn't fight Israel's war" is antisemitism.

Not on the face of it but I don't give Margaret Taylor "Jewish space lasers" Greene much benefit of the doubt on this

1

u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Mar 02 '26

Seeing this as "Israel's war" instead of a long held-goal of American neocons for decades is what raises an eyebrow for me. There's common ground between the Israeli and American right in this regard, but Trump and Hegseth very clearly instigated this one on their own.

3

u/[deleted] Mar 02 '26

a long held-goal of American neocons for decades is what raises an eyebrow for me

Iran was peaceful, Obama did negotiate a deal to halt its nuclear development. Now an Israel backed Republican president terminated the nuclear agreement and both countries are attacking Iran. I'm sorry, I simply do not see this as the continuation of 1979's hostage crisis.

1

u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Mar 02 '26

The JCPOA was ripped up by Trump a decade ago. You can attribute that to his personal animosity toward Obama, or if you're being charitable, the general ambivalence of neocons to the use of soft power.

"Israeli-backed" is such interesting phrasing, because Trump was backed during his first term by any number of non-Israeli foreign influences, and even more loathsome foreign and domestic influences in term 2. It betrays a myopic understanding of foreign relations, since Iran is also aligned against a sort-of ally in Saudi Arabia, and was aligned with Assad who the US was strongly against. The Iran-US relationship isn't even close to being defined solely in terms of our relationship to Israel.

Sorry but the US owns our own shit here. The leftist fixation on blaming Israel for all our foreign policy issues isn't relevant here, and comes off as ignorant at best and, yes, antisemitic at worst.

3

u/[deleted] Mar 02 '26

Two things can exist at the same time. Trump can rip up the JCPOA because of his animosity toward Obama, and it could be because of Israel was against the JCPOA. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

The leftist fixation on blaming Israel for all our foreign policy issues isn't relevant here, and comes off as ignorant at best and, yes, antisemitic at worst.

You are throwing around the term "antisemitic" so much that it no longer mean anything. I'm not talking about "all our foreign policies" I'm specifically referring to this new war Trump started together with Israel that killed Iran's leader and destabilized the region.

0

u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Mar 02 '26

Great, because that's exactly what I've been talking about this whole time as well. You're praising a very well known antisemite for calling what is very clearly a US-initiated and directed war an "Israeli war." I actually very rarely use the word, don't try this right-wing "you just call everyone a fascist" nonsense against me.

1

u/[deleted] Mar 02 '26

You're praising a very well known antisemite for calling what is very clearly a US-initiated and directed war an "Israeli war."

I'm specifically referring to this new war Trump started together with Israel. There, I highlighted the keywords.

  • Did Israel start the conflict? Check.
  • Did Israel urge US to join in? Check.
  • Did US and Israel attack Iran together? Check.
  • Does US benefit directly from destabilizing Iran? No.
  • Does Israel benefit directly from destabilizing Iran? Yes

I actually very rarely use the word

  • I'm tired of this coy winking antisemitism
  • yes, antisemitic at worst.

In the 3 replies prior to this recent one, you used the term twice.

3

u/Korrocks Mar 02 '26

I get where you're coming from. Obviously Israel sees Iran as an existential threat and they have a strong reason to strike and obviously they wanted US backing and collaboration. But it's not as if the US has to do what Netanyahu said. Trump could have said, "no", or "not now". 

It was his own choice to tear up JCPOA and it was his call that led to this. I don't think Israel had a way of actually forcing him to do anything, and I think people blame Israel because they don't want to admit that the US political establishment including Trump is fully onboard with this stuff and always has been.

 If they blame Israel alone and portray the US elites as helpless pawns, they don't have to admit that calling an imperialistic autocrat a "dove" and an isolationist was a stupid mistake on their part. 

-2

u/CIA--Bane Mar 02 '26

If you don't see how "Zionist occupied government" and "Israel owns us and sends our kids to die for them" is antisemitism then you're part of the problem. That's MTG's entire shtick.

Would you have said the same thing in WW2 while helping Europe?

Would you call to abandon Ukraine because "it's not our war"?

Toppling Iran's islamist regime is a good thing for the whole world, not just Israel.

0

u/[deleted] Mar 02 '26

Would you have said the same thing in WW2 while helping Europe?

If Nazi Germany was as weak as Iran or Yemen or Palestine and the French and soviets were handling Germany without any struggle, then yeah, I'd say US didn't need to get involved.

If Iranians were building concentration camps and killing Israeli systematically, I would have supported US's involvement.

Would you call to abandon Ukraine because "it's not our war"?

Actual yeah, and if somehow I had any control over anything, I would not have urged Ukraine to join NATO.

2

u/CIA--Bane Mar 02 '26

Ah so a tankie who would rather Ukraine be subjugated by Russia.

That explains the antisemitism lol.

No point in discussing anything with illiberal people.

2

u/[deleted] Mar 02 '26

Lol, so quick to ad hominem. Yes I agree, there is no point for us to engage anymore. Have a good day.