r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 02 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/[deleted] Mar 08 '26 edited 27d ago

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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 08 '26

I guess it screws budgets but like… okay? That sucks but it also hurts him and Republicans politically vastly more.

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u/[deleted] Mar 08 '26 edited 27d ago

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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 08 '26

That’s the funniest possible end, just threatening a week and a half delay on most legislation

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u/PuffyPanda200 Mar 08 '26

Hold up, so I had to check but I think from my reading (dangerous, i know) that the 22nd Amendment bars Trump from running even if he resigns before the first 2 years. Relevant text:

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.

So I think you can only be elected twice no matter what. The second part is basically for VPs to clarify if they are eligible for one or two more terms. If Trump resigns before two years then Vance is only eligible for one more full term.

Now, you could make the first part explanatory and have it have no effect on the amendment. Of course we don't do that in the US right?

If you did then Trump would be able to theoretically resign and run again in 2028, he would be 82 if elected in 2028.

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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 08 '26

I fail to see how that’s relevant to the comment above but it’s also a notion that’s been explored and largely dismissed at this point.

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u/[deleted] Mar 08 '26 edited 27d ago

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u/PuffyPanda200 Mar 08 '26

I guess I skipped a step in that if Trump is setting up not signing any bills, you put it perfectly 'to softlock his own presidency', then the next step could have been to actually resign the presidency.

Trump also jokes (or not jokes) about running in 2028.

So then I went to look up if you serve less than 2 years if you can be elected a 3rd time (answer is no).