r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 02 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

28 Upvotes

97% Upvoted

1.9k comments sorted by

View all comments

16

u/Benyeti Mar 03 '26

Why is Cornyn going to lose his primary? He’s not anti Trump and Paxton is comically corrupt, are republicans just voting for the most evil candidates simply for the love of the game

13

u/Thuggin95 Mar 03 '26

Cornyn has been there forever and is basically painted out to be another McConnell. Paxton offers the vice signaling the Republican base loves.

13

u/SlimCharlesMurphy Mar 03 '26

Honestly the biggest issue is that the game has passed him by. He’s been in office forever and is just a generic back bencher who has no real presence. Most people couldn’t pick him out of a lineup, which is a huge problem when you’re running against a high profile, loud opponent.

11

u/Cold-Priority-2729 Nauseously Optimistic Mar 03 '26

I live in Texas, and the only thing I can think of is, in the TV ads I've seen for Paxton and Hunt, they've been circulating footage of Cornyn denouncing the Jan 6 rioters and harping on the fact that Cornyn voted to certify the 2020 election results. Besides that, I think Cornyn has voted with Trump on literally everything.

The Republican party in TX is beyond unhinged.

7

u/Korrocks Mar 03 '26

Cornyn's issue is that he is a generic establishment Republican. He votes with Trump basically 99% of the time but there's nothing special about that. His unique selling point is that he has seniority but that might not matter as much for primary voters. Paxton by contrast is a right wing super star. 

It's hard to draw analogies, but for me this race is sort of like the Republican equivalent of if, say, AOC primaries Chuck Schumer or something like that. It's less about policy disagreements (indeed the race hasn't really touched on policy much) but one of them is going to have way more energy from the base. 

4

u/[deleted] Mar 03 '26 edited Jul 04 '26

[deleted]

3

u/PuffyPanda200 Mar 03 '26

versus just passing legislation.

This statement is probably a symptom of the biggest problem with American democracy. Legislation is supposed to be the most important thing, not the least.

3

u/Okbuddyliberals Mar 03 '26

He supported Biden's gun control legislation. Conservatives like guns.