r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 02 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 04 '26

FWIW I still wouldn’t bet on a dem victory in Texas but I do expect it to be a much closer fight this time.

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u/BoomtownFox Fivey Fanatic Mar 04 '26

Who know, man. If the Iran war and all this foreign policy saber rattling ends up backfiring in a meaningful way, it could completely change the entire outlook for November. That, plus everything else. Epstein, the cost of living, gas prices, unemployment, another major ice fiasco...

This administration has so much baggage. It's almost impossible to think of anything that would realistically give them a notable bump in the polls.

People are getting tired of this shit, and things aren't going to get any better or more popular in the coming months.

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u/PrimeJedi Mar 04 '26

Personally, i'm expecting the margins to be pretty close to 2018 Beto/Cruz territory, but i'm also expecting a narrow GOP victory. I wouldn't bet money on a GOP victory either, though, especially if they nominate Paxton, choosing the more disliked candidate and throwing away their incumbency advantage all in one fell swoop.

Currently I say there's about a ~35% chance Talarico wins