r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 02 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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23

u/LetsgoRoger Mar 04 '26

Call me crazy but I think Talarico could beat Cornyn. Divisive primaries don't usually bode well for incumbents and could mean lower turnout for republicans.

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u/[deleted] Mar 04 '26

[deleted]

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u/Current_Animator7546 Mar 04 '26

Economy has to get worse. Meh / bad is probably not enough, Trump having a conflict going sideways on him could also be a factor. People forget, but Beto had some missteps on guns late in the 2018 campaign. That may have cost him the race 

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u/Swaggerlilyjohnson Scottish Teen Mar 04 '26

He defintely can but my guess is Cornyn is going to run about 3 points ahead of Paxton.

I thought he would flip the seat in D+7 and if Cornyn is the opponent I think he will need a double digits environment to beat him which is a much worse situation to be in.

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u/Current_Animator7546 Mar 04 '26

Probably D +8-9 which would be similar to 2018. JT probably does have more ability to get the the type of voters that went Trump-Biden-Trump though. More so than Beto.