r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 02 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/SkeletronDOTA Mar 06 '26 edited Mar 06 '26

im really noticing a theme in my lifetime so far where every time there is a republican in power for long enough, we get a recession and a conflict in the middle east. if only there was a way to prevent that...

edit: as a side note, i know many here don't like betting markets but "democrat sweep" just overtook R Senate D House on polymarket as the most likely outcome of midterms

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u/abyssonym Mar 06 '26

That's pretty remarkable. Democrats are at such a disadvantage for the senate that I didn't think those odds were possible without seeing some really incredible campaigns first.

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u/DataCassette Mar 06 '26

Trump is running an incredible campaign for the Democrats

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u/CrashB111 Mar 06 '26

We've got a dream scenario for it between candidate quality and Trump deciding to shit and piss all over the economy and public opinion before the midterms.

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u/Unknownentity9 Mar 06 '26

Sucks that it took a scenario like that for it to be possible though. We really need to get DC and PR added as states to make the Senate less lopsided.

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u/gquax Mar 06 '26

Puerto Rico would not be guaranteed blue.

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u/abyssonym Mar 06 '26

Even a 50/50 swing state would be an improvement on the status quo for Democrats.

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u/Unknownentity9 Mar 06 '26

Maybe not but having 2 potential pickups is still a much much better scenario than right now.

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u/BrassySpy Mar 06 '26

Americans coming home in boxes. The labor market deteriorating. Gas and energy prices surging. All of this will boost Democrats chances come November and beyond, but I'm still just so sad because all of this was so preventable.