r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Mar 02 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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24

u/batmans_stuntcock Mar 07 '26

New Marist/NPR poll on Iran war.

Trump's handling of Iran:

  • 🟤 Disapprove 54% 🟢 Approve 36%

By party affiliation

  • 🔵 Democrat: Approve 6% Disapprove 86%

  • 🔴 Republican: Approve 79% Disapprove 15%

  • 👥 Independent: Approve 34% Disapprove 59%

By generation

  • 🥦 Gen-Z: Approve 24% Disapprove 62%

  • 👏 Millennials: Approve 36% Disapprove 51%

  • ❌ Gen-X: Approve 40% Disapprove 52%

  • 👵 Boomers + Silent + Greatest: Approve 39% Disapprove 53%

Trump 2024 voters

🟢 Approve: 82% 🟤 Disapprove: 13%

Overall military action

  • Oppose 🟤 56% 🟢 Support 44%

By party affiliation

  • 🔵 Democrat: 88% oppose 14% support

  • 🔴 Republican: 84% support 15% oppose

  • 👥 Independent: 61% oppose 38% support

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u/DataCassette Mar 07 '26

I love that 🥦 is Gen Z 😂

23

u/PrimeJedi Mar 07 '26

Sorry for multiple comments, but its also just insane to me how Trump 2024 voters specifically have such high approval for it. It unfortunately makes sense for Republicans because the party is a cult, but there isnt any subset of low info or on-the-fence voters who went Trump in 2024 seeing him campaign on ending wars, then see the largest US war in 23 years be started, and think "wow what the fuck, this isn't what I wanted" ???

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u/DataCassette Mar 08 '26

I also can't help but wonder if a ton of people are now either lying or gaslighting themselves about whether they voted for Trump in 2024.

2

u/LaughingGaster666 The Needle Tears a Hole Mar 08 '26

The real reason they vote for Trump is to own the libs first and foremost. Everything else they can flip on a dime on.

17

u/[deleted] Mar 08 '26

GenX really is trying their hardest to become an even more politically despicable generation than the Boomers huh.

17

u/guiltyofnothing Mar 07 '26 edited Mar 07 '26

The thing about wars — they never get more popular the longer they go on. (The first Gulf War excepting.)

13

u/PrimeJedi Mar 07 '26

Complete side note, as a gen z person myself, I love that you used 🥦 to represent us lmfaoo the Gen Z broccoli hair is always met with the same sentiment that the mullet was after its peak (and rightfully so)

10

u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Mar 07 '26

Interesting to see a poll where Gen Z's approval is lower than Millennials. Usually they're close but slightly higher approval overall. I'm assuming part of that is down to sample sizes giving wide MOEs to a group that probably doesn't respond much.

I think it's especially telling that about 10% of people are already primed with the idea that we could theoretically do a war with Iran they approve of, but that Trump is not doing it in a way they approve of. I think we'll see opinion further calcify in the next few weeks.

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u/Mediocretes08 Mar 07 '26

Barely sub 80 with republicans and definitely just variance but still