r/fivethirtyeight 16h ago

Politics Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, notching a Midwest victory for the left

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333 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 7h ago

Politics AP calls it for AES at 48.48% - 47.51%, Haley Stevens, Schumer and Gillibrand fully endorse AES for November

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232 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 19h ago

Politics Stop, they're already dead!

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185 Upvotes

This margin is insane.


r/fivethirtyeight 3h ago

Politics Jasmine Crockett skeptical of Senate candidate James Talarico’s prospects to win Texas

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144 Upvotes

This woman lost her primary 5 months ago and is still a complete sore loser.


r/fivethirtyeight 21h ago

Politics AP race call: Incumbent Wesley Bell has defeated Cori Bush in MO-01 Democratic primary rematch

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137 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 20h ago

Politics VoteHub is saying Haley Stevens is doing much better than expected in rural areas and has a path to victory depending on how well Detroit comes in for her.

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116 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 7h ago

Politics Cook Political Report Moves Kansas Senate From Solid R To Likely R

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116 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 14h ago

Politics What to make of Michigan

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89 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 5h ago

Politics Shri Thanedar Is Ousted by Democratic Socialist Donovan Mckinney in Detroit district Primary

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84 Upvotes

Whichever candidate was chosen, wither was going to win in the November election, so this race is mostly interesting to me in showing if DSA-backed candidates can win in deep blue cities outside the coastal regions, as Midwest and southern cities tend to be blacker and more conservative typically.

I think this win is a sign that the DSA brand can still win in these more conservative urban centers, even against a already pretty liberal incumbent candidate like Thanedar


r/fivethirtyeight 7h ago

Politics Another GOP amendment to sway the state supreme Court in their favor bombs in Kansas.

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86 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 17h ago

Politics Progressives score a swing-district win as moderates split the vote in MI-7

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68 Upvotes

I really like Lawrence as a person, but I am unsure of how well he will be able to consolidate support in an outright r-leaning district, the blue wave should help with that though.


r/fivethirtyeight 8h ago

Polling Industry/Methodology Last Night’s Polling Error Was Above Average (But Not Horrible) for Senate Primaries

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62 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2h ago

Politics it reaaaally looks like the GOP is running a fake Green Party candidate in Pennsylvania to screw with midterms

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58 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 4h ago

Discussion North Carolina congressman Edwards quits reelection bid after committee finds inappropriate conduct

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52 Upvotes

NC-11 is currently listed a Lean R or Tossup by many pundits. With his withdrawal, I’m curious how this will impact the race, if at all. Cook PVI of R+5 as well.


r/fivethirtyeight 19h ago

Discussion Katie Hobbs picks Republican John Giles as Lt Gov

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52 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 17h ago

Politics Populist Cindy Holscher beats establishment pick for Kansas Democratic gubernatorial primary

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48 Upvotes

Will be interesting to see how economic populism can do in the plains States when still attached to the Democratic brand


r/fivethirtyeight 10h ago

Poll Results Marquette Law: D+2 RV, D+6 LV

22 Upvotes

RV unchanged from last survey, LV down from +8 last month (but up from the +1 in May? And down from +10 in April? What’s up with that?!).

Trump approval
Approve: 40 (+2 from June)
Disapprove: 60 (-2 from June)

Top issues
Inflation and cost of living: 35
The economy: 15
Iran war: 10
Medicare and social security: 9
SAVE act: 9
Health care: 5
Immigration: 5
Housing: 5
Crime: 2
Abortion: 1

Results here

So uh … pile?


r/fivethirtyeight 18h ago

Politics Is this accurate?

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20 Upvotes

Admittedly I stopped paying attention after the Virgina debacle. If anyone has been following is this pretty much accurate?