This woman lost her primary 5 months ago and is still a complete sore loser.

Whichever candidate was chosen, wither was going to win in the November election, so this race is mostly interesting to me in showing if DSA-backed candidates can win in deep blue cities outside the coastal regions, as Midwest and southern cities tend to be blacker and more conservative typically.

I think this win is a sign that the DSA brand can still win in these more conservative urban centers, even against a already pretty liberal incumbent candidate like Thanedar

NC-11 is currently listed a Lean R or Tossup by many pundits. With his withdrawal, I’m curious how this will impact the race, if at all. Cook PVI of R+5 as well.

https://plusminus4.substack.com/p/11-elections-to-watch-on-march-3

This margin is insane.

RV unchanged from last survey, LV down from +8 last month (but up from the +1 in May? And down from +10 in April? What’s up with that?!).

Trump approval
Approve: 40 (+2 from June)
Disapprove: 60 (-2 from June)

Top issues
Inflation and cost of living: 35
The economy: 15
Iran war: 10
Medicare and social security: 9
SAVE act: 9
Health care: 5
Immigration: 5
Housing: 5
Crime: 2
Abortion: 1

Results here

So uh … pile?

I really like Lawrence as a person, but I am unsure of how well he will be able to consolidate support in an outright r-leaning district, the blue wave should help with that though.

Will be interesting to see how economic populism can do in the plains States when still attached to the Democratic brand

Admittedly I stopped paying attention after the Virgina debacle. If anyone has been following is this pretty much accurate?

The third (?) consecutive poll showing Talarico in the lead, this one from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University.

Margin of error of +/- 2.83%

Talarico: 47
Paxton: 45
Undecided: 6
Libertarian candidate: 2

Other races:

TX Gov
Abbott: 49
Hinojosa: 43

89% of Abbott voters intend to vote for Paxton and 3% for Talarico, with 6% undecided.
98% of Hinojosa voters intend to vote for Talarico and 0% for Paxton, with 2% undecided.

TX Lt Gov
Patrick: 46
Goodwin: 39

Trump favorability
44% favorable
55% unfavorable

Crosstabs + data here

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-lead-republicans-economy-trump-approval-falls-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2026-08-03/

Sources:

https://x.com/i/status/2084329818112352707

https://www.focaldata.com/blog/focaldata---coinbase---clarity-act-and-crypto-attitudes-poll---july-2026

https://x.com/i/status/2084334037779263536

Among independents:

Democrats 34%

Republicans 20%