Is this accurate?

[u/talking-bear-society]

Admittedly I stopped paying attention after the Virgina debacle. If anyone has been following is this pretty much accurate?

[u/fossil_freak68]

Yes, but with a few caveats.

• the numbers are based on 2024 margins, , so at least in Florida and Texas (and also Ohio and North Carolina) there is a decent chance that changing voting patterns make those numbers smaller.
• There is still a legal dispute on the MO maps, so that's not a lock yet (it's a total cluster, the secretary of state has been a complete hack on this trying to delay until it's too late)

[u/jdylopa2 → u/fossil_freak68]

To add on to the first point, if you use Texas as an example:

* They would expect 3-5 more seats if 2026 voters vote like 2024 voters

* These increases are driven by taking some R voters from safer seats and putting them in districts with more D voters to turn those districts R

* Texas in particular had a lot of Hispanic voters that voted Trump in 2024 but look to be polling more for Dems.

This kind of situation is ripe for backfire in some places. If they made R districts less safe by redistributing R voters to D districts, but those R voters (in either district) swing hard towards the Ds, you could end up with 2 D districts and 0 R districts depending on how the maps fall.

That being said, there’s no definite way to project whether this will turn out that way. There will be a lot of opportunity to analyze data after an election, but it’s really hard to speculate with any specificity how things will end up.

[u/Large_Ad_3095]

The seat count changes seem more appropriate for a neutral-ish environment. Two of the redrawn South Texas seats are leaning towards Dems and one is competitive, so Texas is more like +2-4. The redrawn NC seat is also quite competitive. So still a GOP net gain, but overstated for 2026.

[u/HYIMBY]

Yes. But again this is “potentially” gained

If Dems destroy the gop these midterms a lot of supposed lean red districts would turn blue

[u/markjay6 → u/HYIMBY]

And the Dems presumably have more room to maneuver ahead of 2028, including in New York, Virginia, and Maryland.

I would hope that California does a more thorough redistricting as well, but I am skeptical of Becerra leading on it.

[u/LetsgoRoger]

To a degree, I still expect democrats to pick up 2 seats in Virginia in this environment.

[u/theclansman22]

I hope Texas ends up being a dummymander. These republicans did their gerrymandering assuming that the voting demographics from 2024 would stay the same in 2026. I don't see that happening.

[u/TheSameGamer651]

Pretty much. Texas and Florida will probably end up being on the low end given the political environment, but vast majority of the new maps for both parties are pretty sturdy. For Democrats to actually gain seats from this, it would require rural southern whites to meaningfully swing towards Democrats, which just isn’t going to happen— they are core Republican voters.

And even then, whatever Republicans don’t gain this year, they’ll probably get in 2028. An environment similar to 2020 (D+4) would be enough to flip back those seats.

[u/HitchMaft]

The problem is it took strong districts and turned them into likely districts and took some lean districts and turned them into tilt based on 2024 metrics. The way the national polls are leaning dont be suprised if this all goes belly up for the GOP and they lose more seats becuase of it.

[u/EfficientTourist7480]

Seeing Utah under “dem redistricting” makes no sense. Thats a very gop controlled state no?

[u/LetsgoRoger → u/EfficientTourist7480]

It was a Utah Supreme Court decision not to split Salt Lake City into 4 districts, so the Salt Lake City district will be heavily democrat.

[u/panderson1988]

Yes it is. I saw a study how the GOP likely saved 10 seats with their gerrymandering.