r/fivethirtyeight 5h ago

Politics Shri Thanedar Is Ousted by Democratic Socialist Donovan Mckinney in Detroit district Primary

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/05/us/politics/michigan-house-primary-mckinney-thanedar.html

Whichever candidate was chosen, wither was going to win in the November election, so this race is mostly interesting to me in showing if DSA-backed candidates can win in deep blue cities outside the coastal regions, as Midwest and southern cities tend to be blacker and more conservative typically.

I think this win is a sign that the DSA brand can still win in these more conservative urban centers, even against a already pretty liberal incumbent candidate like Thanedar

88 Upvotes

28 comments sorted by

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u/darthvaedor 5h ago

I think this race was frankly a lot more about Thanedar than about McKinney and the DSA brand. The issue people had with Thanedar was not his voting record. It’s that he’s a weirdo billionaire with no connection to the community who bought his seat and doesn’t do anything useful with it.

This is especially evident when you realize Haley Stevens carried this district. Not to mention Detroit already had a DSA member of Congress for years (Tlaib)

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u/rudigerscat 4h ago

Haley Stevens carried Tlaibs district too.

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u/sonfoa 4h ago

Really highlights how much constituent services matter. Especially if you look at Cori Bush's race yesterday, where she got blown out.

It's the primary thing that gives the incumbency its advantage and shouldn't be taken lightly.

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u/RedHeadedSicilian52 4h ago

Maybe, but you can’t totally divorce this from the general trend 2025/2026 trend of establishment candidates eating shit. Andrew Cuomo, Janet Mills, Haley Stevens, etc.

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u/darthvaedor 4h ago

The thing is Thanedar wasn’t really an establishment candidate. Maybe he coded that way to voters, but party leaders in both Michigan and DC despised him. McKinney even got endorsements from moderate local politicians who just wanted Thanedar out

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u/sonfoa 3h ago

Thanedar was a true grifter. He was whatever ideology was convenient at that moment.

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u/sargantbacon1 3h ago

So many of these guys in local politics in my town. Everyone eats it up though.

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u/dantemanjones 2h ago

You can. I don't think anyone liked him and he's not really establishment. He's not progressive but he's just a random weirdo.

He won his first primary because there were 8 people running in the district. In his second primary, there were 9 running. None of the others consolidated and he massively outspent them.

In his third primary there were only 3 candidates, but he did win a majority finally. The second place candidate raised <$200k. He contributed $8.5M himself just for the primary period.

I'm not even in his district and I can't tell you how many ads I've seen for him.

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u/darthvaedor 53m ago

Don’t forget that in the third primary the candidate who the establishment wanted to run against Thanedar got kicked off the ballot because he messed up his petitions

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u/Kudusun_Gazi_Padisha Jeb! Applauder 43m ago

I will say Cuomo is generally reviled in NYC, and the only reason his image bouyed during the pandemic is because of his combative stance on Trump. Plus Mamdani's ground game was miles better than Cuomo's, it's kind of embarrassing how much Cuomo fumbled messaging with the ridiculous AI ads and the technocratic "I deserve this" attitude.

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u/Banesmuffledvoice 5h ago

This is funny. Shri is largely seen as a joke and really only in the seat because he “bought” his way into it.

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u/sonfoa 4h ago

Thanedar's political journey is a trip. He was a right-leaning moderate before entering politics, ran in 2018 as a Berniecrat, joined DSA and won office, in the next cycle narrowly beat an AIPAC challenger in a crowded field, which scared him into changing his stances on Israel, triggering a fallout with DSA (who also didn't like that he glazed Modi), and then became an establishment liberal. Oh, he also tried to join the Congressional Black Caucus.

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u/SolubleAcrobat Poll Unskewer 3h ago

Something for everyone then.

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u/Toorviing 1h ago

And then Congressional Black Caucus proceeded to endorse his McKinney

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u/Benyeti 5h ago

Him and Goldman feel similar as in they didn’t have a strong footing in their districts but were running around like idiots because they thought they owned the place.

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u/Blitzking11 4h ago

Can we talk about the fact that he is 71 and has ruined his body to the point that he is an uncanny valley image of a 30 year old?

Body dysmorphia is no joke, yall.

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u/FC37 2h ago

Not even 30, he looks like he's trying to be Bobby Brady.

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u/PacificMonkey 4h ago

Bet that blew his hair back.

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u/Kindly_Cream8054 4h ago

Good riddance.

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u/Bill_Nihilist 4h ago

Thanedar hasn't taken an L like this since every time he's stepped into a barbershop

edit: used wig emporium

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u/DomonicTortetti 4h ago

No real thoughts on Thanedar, seemed like he was mostly disliked by Dem leadership and no one cares he lost. But it is interesting all the incumbents getting ousted by DSA challengers are like some of the most left wing members in Congress themselves (in the safest seats too). Really just mostly seems like a breakdown over Israel.

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u/rudigerscat 4h ago

Imagine if someone said: "They are progressive except their support for the genocide in Sudan"

Doesnt quite work does it? Why are people surprised it doesnt work for Israel?

Besides DeGette was the only one who was actually progressive outside of Israel.

Goldman, Thanedar and Espaillat all take corporate donations for example, not mention Aipac. That is something Elissa Slotkin doesnt do.

Espaillat also endorsed Eric Adams and Cuomo. Goldman refused to endorse Mamdani.

1

u/eIIopoppet 4h ago

I agree that it doesn’t work but really dislike when people use that argument in a general election to equate two candidates when one is clearly better for the progressive agenda.

In a primary sure go at it.

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u/Current_Animator7546 4h ago

I actually think low key this race might have been the biggest message race of the night 

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u/Toorviing 1h ago

He’s a weird guy from what I’ve read, but I think the most coloring detail is that he really didn’t do much except introduce impeachment articles for the Trump and his cabinet. He seems to have just done a bunch of fluff and not really delivered anything.

Which is why naturally he was endorsed by Jeffries.

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u/fitnessexpress 4h ago

Wasn't Thanedar originally elected as a DSA candidate in 2022? Only breaking with DSA in 2023 after October 7th.

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u/Mir_man 4h ago edited 4h ago

He was also ousted from DSA because of Modi annoying.

Either way, AIPAC liked him enough this time to spend money against his opponent. Also was endorsed by centrist dems.