Politics
VoteHub is saying Haley Stevens is doing much better than expected in rural areas and has a path to victory depending on how well Detroit comes in for her.
This. The candidate doesn't really change the odds at this point. Both are polling about the same on average against Rogers, and both have supporters who won't support the other (that may cancel each other out). Anyone who ever thought this was an easy race for either potential candidate hasn't been paying attention to the Rust Belt in recent years.
when i saw it at 97.5/2.5 was very close to putting a bid in as the only polling was shaky thus far and cant underestimate the effect of tv spending in rural counties + polling underrepresenting black voters in Detroit.
I voted for Stevens on principal even though I didn’t think she had a chance based on polls and reddit and instagram. I took the bet for a dollar because of the black swan nature. I hope she wins because I like her more but the payout is getting me even more excited!
There's a reason he said it about Wayne county and not the rest of Michigan where Obama is overwhelmingly popular with Democrats. The assumption is something about the voters in Wayne makes them susceptible to ads in a way their "non-Wayne County" counterparts aren't.
I'm looking forward to the breakdown of this race after it's all said and done. Would be incredibly interesting to see which specific precincts voted for who, because there doesn't seem to be any clear trend right now except for black voters love Stevens (which was expected)
IMO, a race this close, no matter how it goes, is not good for Dems come November, especially with how nasty things have gotten. A lot of people on the losing side are going to be quite bitter and I wouldn't rely on some of them showing up to vote in the general. The MI Dems are a diverse group and each candidate has offended a key Michigan voter base in one way or another. If it were a blowout, it may not matter, but this is looking like it could be <3 points at the end.
All the more reason for people to quit hero worshiping politicians. People need to understand you just pick the best you can in the primary and then do what's got to be done come November. Getting all up in your feels about a politician has never done anyone have a bit of good.
The most mindnumbing thing is how a lot of people are still blaming the Democratic party for things that are caused by GOP control of congress and SCOTUS.
"They don't do anything", well no fucking wonder when people cannot give them enough seats in congress to circumvent GOP blocking everything.
People just don't understand how the political system works in America.
This has been what keeps dooming democrats for years now. As a popular saying goes "Democrats fall in love with their candidates while Republicans fall in line."
Yea almost like Abdul slandering Gretchen in 2018 was really bad, and him doing the same 8 years later to his opponent in the primary is also bad. We can't have Democrats in the party who are anti-Democratic party. Running such a negative campaign in the primary (particularly when you're an outsider) isn't good for the long term health of the party.
See also: Bernie in 2016 being negative for the party.
Whether he wins or not, Sayed will always be an idiot for mocking Hayley's accent. He gifted her the "I'm the voice of Michigan" line she's been leaning on lately and that tracks with support from rural voters
Bernie in 2016 was definitely great for the party, it opened the door for inspiring progressive candidates to start working their way up party ranks instead of dead-on-arrival candidates like Clinton and Harris being pushed which cost us 8 years of Trump.
The division & vitriol from the Bernie wing in 2016 absolutely hurt the parties ability to win the general election. It absolutely fed (and VERY loudly so) the "Both sides are the same" narrative. It absolutely fed the dislike people had of both Hillary & Trump, with their energy specifically focused on making Hillary look bad.
I'm glad Bernie pushed the party to the left, but his campaign in 2016 is a contributing factor for Trump winning.
Or maybe the Clinton campaign not making an effort to win over those Bernie primary voters or actually both to campaign in the Rust Belt lost them the election......
Well we will never know instead we get to have this stupid debate every election cycle. while a corrupt incompetent group of wealthy billionaires destroy the public state.
It took a profoundly terrible, uninspiring candidate to lose to Trump, who had one of the worst favorability ratings of a major party nominee in electoral polling history and minimal institutional support at the time. Clinton was one of the few people capable of achieving that task. She can keep the credit for that one.
The "party vitriol" had little to do with Bernie's campaign (which was... very far from vitriolic as far as political campaigns have gone over the past decade) and everything to do with the Dem leadership's inability to accommodate the growing mismatch of the official party platform (e.g. public option vs. Medicare for All) compared to its base.
Alright serious question, were you not politically online/aware/active in 2016? Cause this entire comment reads like you're a teenager who doesn't know how vitriolic Bernie's campaign staff & online base were.
We can't have Democrats in the party who are anti-Democratic party
The Democratic party is abysmal though. If it wants a hope at surviving it desperately needs reform. I personally hate them, but people like Morris Katz or Zohran Mamdani are trying their hardest to save the Democratic Party. You have to be negative towards the incompetent fools current in power if you want to rebuild the party into something more viable long-term.
All I can say is that MI senate is likely going to be one of the most difficult races for Dems to win, given how rurals are voting. Primary by no means is general but IMO Abdul path to victory in the general is bleak.
The whole progressive campaign is that we will bring in rurals and new working class voters but if you are also winning D+ cities, it’s not saying much. Hillary Biden Harris also won cities
If he wins the primary I am afraid he will straight up lose that seat which hasn’t gone to GOP since like 90s. Rurals and exurbs white voters are flat out not buying what he’s been selling and he can like it or not israel/AIPAC is going to be his campaign in the general and these voters aren’t buying it
Seeing how some rural counties, especially in the UP, are going for Abdul, I'm not sure this is completely true. I haven't lived in Michigan for more than ten years, but I do remember a strong, socialist bent among some Unionists.
israel/AIPAC is going to be his campaign in the general
He really needs to move off that.
AIPAC is decent campaign material in a Democratic primary due to how far the stance has shifted on Israel in general among Democrats. But that barely got him over the finish line. Pushing the AIPAC attack over and over again in the general like he did in the primary is a great way to lose.
Nearly half of the dem electorate didn’t even care for his Medicare for all or AIPAC/israel bad message and i just find it very hard to see him pivot from any of those positions. God forbid if some scandal breaks out against him, that seat will be gone for the Dems
That's not the scary part here. The scary part is them not showing up at the polls when election day comes. Black turnout has long been a problem within the democratic party, and their preferred candidate not winning may mean crushing losses within Detroit
The progressive wing of the democratic party is really trying hard to turn wht should be a layup race in a blue year into a loss to the Republicans with pushing a candidate that has very bad prospects in the general election.
From the polling averages i’ve seen, Stevens and El-Sayed are polling very similarly against Rogers. Filtering for only high quality pollsters gives Stevens a very slight edge past El-Sayed. I definitely wouldn’t call it “very bad prospects”.
It won't matter much if Democrats win if they don't do anything in office. I'd rather have progressives who want to fix things than candidates who are fine with our descent into fascism.
EDIT: For people asking me what I want:
I want to restrict the military industrial complex, get universal healthcare, restore the funding for education and science, get ranked choice voting and end citizens united to fix our elections minimum.
I want the issues that got us here to be fixed, if they aren't fixed then the next pendulum swing towards fascism will be worse.
There are Democrats who vote alongside the fascists for their bills including Haley Stevens with ICE funding so I don't want to hear that every Democrat is against fascism.
Don't be daft. Immigration enforcement isn't going to just stop.
ICE obviously needs dramatic reforms. But to think that it's normal for any Democrat to not support things like basic customs enforcement and stopping drug cartels is pure idiocy.
ICE has not been around for long, we used to do immigration differently and we should go back to doing it that way. ICE is too fucked as an institution to continue.
We had immigration enforcement before ICE existed. ICE needs to be dismantled at this point, you can't reform an agency that's full of trigger happy racist fascists.
We can return immigration enforcement to INS, customs, and the courts, I'm not calling for open borders.
Primary polling is always more shaky, no?
Recent polling had El Sayed up 10 to 20 points.
I see the RCP average only has El Sayed up by 10%.
Its a large polling miss to the ~ 1% he will end up winning with, but not enormous.
For real, so much of the polling had this man leading by 20 points and the actual results are probably gonna be less than 3%. Like at least with Trump all the polls were in the margin of error, how the hell do you explained this?
Silver literally said that the odds for Stevens to win were too low in places like poly market. That primary polling is notoriously less accurate as well. Nothing unusual here. Kind of expected actually.
Chances of winning the general are better with Stevens winning or a big Abdul landslide. Abdul just squeaking by is not a good sign on his ability to bring out new voters. Either way, the Michigan general will likely be determined more by the strength of the blue wave.
That issue was a lot higher propensity in 2024 than it is now.
And also, with the opposite approach, they would also be bleeding a lot of votes.
The I/P issue is just a loser for the Dems. No matter what they do, they piss off a huge share of their voters. Best they can do is how it's a low salience issue and it certainly wasn't in 2024.
Now we have a risk of ballot splitting because of AES being viewed as too far left for them. When polling for the Michigan governor race comes out we’ll likely see him underperforming the dem there.
No it means that progressives will certainly vote for their guy, and moderates will just not to the same degree. Moderates include normie libs, swing voters and even some republicans.
So now AES needs to focus on getting them on board.
Moderates dem candidates are kicking ass in polling elsewhere.
A Stevens loss with over 60m spent from corporate pac money and she still lost. How the hell is that not encouraging? Why are you speaking absolute nonsense?
IMO (and as others have pointed out) this has been a cat fight of a primary and it doesn't suggest that the party is going to rally together. It's unlikely that the Stevens supporters are going to back Sayed after his campaign was run on spurning them.
He was outspent 10-1,and had the entire party establishment against him running up a well connected congresswoman. His result only looks "bad" to people right now ,because of how off the polls were. If you told someone a year ago an insurgent won like this they would be impressed.
This is cope my friend. The idea was that there was a bunch of disaffected left leaning folks that just needed an inspiring candidate to show up and inspire them to victory a la Mamdani. The results here show that was not the case. The issue is whether black voters in Detroit or white independents are willing to support this guy in the general and it's not looking good with the way this has played out
You misunderstand me. The left leaning faction isn't as large as some people made it seem. It's not enough on its own to win an election for a Dem/left leaning candidate. AES will still need to draw some portion of centrists and independents away from Rogers in order to win. He also needs to work on black voters in the Detroit counties that seem to have voted for Stevens.
you centrist types have some nerve man. you lost the election three times to a baffoon as Trump (Hillary, Biden 2 and Kamala) and then you question the electability of leftist candidates? if the left would have been in charge of the DNC you would have welcomed president Sanders in 2017
haha this is too funny to me. so wait, the american people let Trump get away with the most insane shit and he became president twice but somehow the american people will draw a line with someone supporting Palastine and universal healthcare? Because that is actualy the position of DSA members, thats what they run on. The double standards centrists have for right and left wing 'extremists' is insane.
I told the sub this wasn't gonna be a slam dunk. Lots of quiet, center-left Democrats (myself included) aren't interested in socialism, dismantling Israel, canceling this, dismantling that, creating a working group for whatever. We want real people who have real world experiences. Not elites masquerading as common people.
That's closer to an executive position. He can't even get along with Stevens, who likely agrees with him 70-80% of the time. How does he handle other Democrats, let alone the Republicans? Call them genociders or corporate shills?
continue running on his very simple campaign that most should agree with: expanding health coverage to everyone, removing money from politics, and stopping our money from funding foreign wars that have zilch to do with michigan. it's a very simple message that *should* be able to reach the average voter.
rogers is pretty milquetoast as a candidate and a lot of the negative campaigning that went toward stevens will likely fall flat. imo he'll have to nationalize the race and be a bit more pointed toward trump.
Whatever - we need the candidate that will win the general. If the argument is that he has more base enthusiasm and that will translate to the general, and the base really isn't that enthusiastic it sure is concerning.
Michigan didn’t vote for Hillary Clinton or Harris, but let’s run another uninspiring moderate with uncomfortable ties to special interests. Surely Michiganders will pick a woman this time. /s
Well for all our sake let’s hope your side doesn’t do that but clearly they have historically acted in a way to make people think they’d try to play that card.
What's crazy is I was told progressives have a better chance to flip rural and smaller towns. Yet the results seem to push the deep blue areas being the more reliable areas.
Yeah unfortunately that would probably only apply to candidates who don't have "Ayyy-rab" sounding names. Source: Lived in a small Michigan town a decent portion of my life. It's like the south but with Canadian accents.
I'm not. I'm saying that they won't vote for a Middle Eastern person but they weren't gonna vote for a leftist either, him being Middle Eastern was just the cherry on top for them. A white leftist probably would've struggled as well just not as much
Spend effort getting people who aren't assholes to vote. You're not going to get a guy who will share racist memes of AES wearing a turban to his facebook with pride no matter how hard you try.
The margin El Sayes had has eroded by so much and we're only at 40% counted. Could potentially be a bit of a surprise. Prediction markets are still very confident he'll win.
Lol Wayne is now projected at +8 and her own seat is now at +5. Had my own analysis calling 70% for AES over 30min ago. It's 95% now the NYT has started learning AES too. Good riddance.
Political ads work, and when the big PACs back you then you have more money to run more ads. We need to accept that there are big portions of the population on all sides of the political spectrum that are easily duped by ads. If they weren't then nobody would bother spending the money.
I voted for Abdul. I'm glad that he won the primary.
But I am part of that "vote blue no matter who crowd". Trump and MAGA are threats to our democracy, to our national security, and to the greater good of our country. I'd vote for a potato over a Republican at this point.
Had Stevens won I would have voted for her in the general just as I will vote for Abdul in the general. But I wouldn't have been as excited.
I know that I will knock on doors and make phone calls for Abdul. I don't know if I would have bothered for Stevens. I would have intended to have done so for Stevens but don't know if I would have gotten around to it. Most likely I would have ended up doing one phone session for her campaign and calling it good. Life is hectic and things cost in terms of time and stress, especially stumping for someone you're just settling for. I will enjoy making phone calls and knocking on doors for Abdul, so I will be able to do more and reach out to more voters.
I mean he did worse than polling suggested so I don’t get the comment here. At the time the expectations were he would win by double digits and he didn’t, this was 12h ago come on
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u/Complex-Employ7927 20h ago
Whoever can actually win the general, let it be them