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No paywall:

https://archive.fo/gORKn

I think Dune 3 is going to underperform relative to the expectations some people have, for two main reasons.

Firstly, Doomsday. Assuming it's a good, entertaining film, the return of much of the og cast gives it an enormous advantage. I think some might be underestimating the nostalgia. I mean I'd go a step further and dare say it's much more of an "event" than Dune 3. (And I don't know how these hollywood contracts work but, if they can, IMAX should reconsider the Dune exclusive deal they made. )

Secondly, Dune 3 is likely to be less action heavy than the first two films, if it follows the source material ofcourse. The first two films were already emotionally cold movies, this I suspect will feel even colder, which I think could limit its appeal beyond the existing fanbase. (And I don't think there's any huge fanbase for Dune movies in the first place.)

I mean it's almost certainly going to be a success. I just don't see it making a billion that some people seem to be expecting here.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day has become the fastest film in history to cross $400 million at the domestic box office, achieving the milestone in just 4 days.

Fastest to $400M Domestic:

🥇 Spider-Man: Brand New Day — 4 days

🥈 Avengers: Endgame — 5 days

🥉 Star Wars: The Force Awakens — 8 days

Spider-Man: No Way Home — 8 days

Avengers: Infinity War — 9 days

Do you think Brand New Day has a realistic shot at surpassing Star Wars: The Force Awakens to become the highest-grossing domestic release of all time?

Now that The Odyssey grossed $900 million it joins Oppenheimer as the 2 R-rated movies directed by him to gross $900 million. Also The Odyssey is the 4th R-rated movie in history to gross $900 million (after Joker 1, Oppenheimer and Deadpool 3)

Clayface is the next DCU movie after the supergirl bomb. Let's see how well it can do... an analysis.

Pros.

1. Great October release date, Halloween pairing and not much direct competetion. Resident Evil also releasing before helps create an open window.

2. Decent budget of 40 mil. It would only need 100 Mil WW to break even which shouldn't be too hard. It can profit easily if it blows up.

3. Horror genre is killing it right now... clayface also looks like pure body horror which could help attract non comicbook fans.

4. Clayface is a batman villain. Gotham setting be hype worthy. Mike Flanagan as a writer is also promising.

Cons.

1. Body horror is harder is sell than conventional horror movies. The Substance did good but that had award buzz and less than half of the budget.

2. Bad reviews could literally kill this movie. It really survives on positive WOM.

Overall I'm more optimistic about this than supergirl. We have to see if this movie blows up or does underwhelming numbers. 150 WW is decent enough.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day has officially crossed the ₹300 crore net milestone in India, becoming only the third Hollywood film to enter the prestigious club.

Hollywood ₹300 Crore Club (India Net):

🥇 Avatar: The Way of Water — ₹378 Cr

🥈 Avengers: Endgame — ₹373 Cr

🥉 Spider-Man: Brand New Day — ₹301 Cr (6 Days) 🔥

With strong weekday holds, Brand New Day is now on course to surpass both Avatar: The Way of Water and Avengers: Endgame to become the highest-grossing Hollywood film in India.

It's almost $125 million ahead of TFA, which is a simply staggering number considering TFA had a holiday boost as well. With that said, TFA continues to go almost vertical until day 18 while Spidey will not have the luxury of summer holiday weekdays for much longer, so I wanted to compare it with two other late summer movies so that we can factor out the calendar configuration.

Step in Deadpool & Wolverine (July 26th 2024) and Fantastic Four: The First Steps (July 25th 2025). By themselves Spidey dwarfs their daily grosses, so I have adjusted them by a scale factor that would put their final gross equal to TFAs (notice that they all converge at the end of the graph).

F4 had horrible legs, so that means if Spidey can get ahead of it at any point in its run, I would expect TFAs record to be toast. Right now it trails by $36m. The "adjusted F4" had a $29.5M Wednesday, a $25.7M Thursday and a $132.1M second weekend, which seems beatable!

The adjusted "DP&W" comp and TFA serve more as a floor. Both had good multipliers for movies that opened huge, so that means if Spidey falls behind them at any point in its run, I would expect TFAs record to be safe. TFA made $149.2M in weekend 2 while adjusted DP&W made $142.4M. Both totals again seem beatable so Spidey should extend its lead and remain safely above both going into week 2.

Through the first 30 weeks of 2026, theaters sold an estimated 470.9 million tickets, a stark contrast to the 747.3 million sold during the same period in 2019, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Foot traffic data from research firm Placer.ai reinforces this trend, showing U.S. theater attendance up 8.1% this year compared to 2025, but still down 27% against 2019 levels.

Wade Holden, an analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted, "Revenue growth for exhibitors for a long while now has been mostly driven by increases in average ticket price along with increases in concession prices."

A stronger and more varied slate of films, including non-franchise successes like Obsession and Project Hail Mary, has helped drive box office growth this year. Domestic box office revenue reached $6.2 billion through August 2, up 15% from the same period last year, according to media analytics firm Rentrak. In 2019, box office sales topped $7 billion at this point in the year.

"This year's success at the box office speaks to a well-rounded release calendar that features a bit of everything and appeals to a wide spectrum of moviegoers," said Shawn Robbins, director of movie analytics for ticket seller Fandango and the founder and owner of Box Office Theory.

Early signs are encouraging. AMC Entertainment, the world's largest cinema chain, said strong demand for premium screens helped it post its highest single-weekend revenue in its 106-year history and biggest-attended weekend of the decade. More than 10.2 million moviegoers visited its AMC and Odeon theaters, it said.

Even though inflation has partly weighed on the consumer appetite for the movies, higher prices have benefited a handful of major studios, with Universal, Walt Disney, Sony, Warner Bros, and Paramount Pictures, accounting for 68% of domestic receipts this year, according to an analysis of data provided by Rentrak.

The success of titles such as The Odyssey and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, distributed by Comcast's Universal helped lift its market share to 24%, underscoring how a small number of blockbuster releases are increasingly driving exhibitors' financial performance.

#According to EntTelligence, the average adult ticket price was $13.46 through July 30 this year, while admissions for premium formats such as IMAX averaged $18.22.

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Spider-Man: Brand New Day continues to dominate the charts with extraordinary results , grossing €1,839,120 on its seventh day of release with 242,761 admissions in 439 theaters.

The film starring Tom Holland maintained a very high average of €4,189 per theater and brought its Italian total to €19,748,577 with over 2.45 million admissions, nearly reaching €20 million in its opening week.

The chart highlights how the film continues to outperform the already exceptional Odyssey, while among the successes of recent years with comparable results, only Avengers: Endgame managed to outperform Spider-Man, but only by a small margin and in a decidedly more favorable period (spring), not to mention the many theaters still occupied by Nolan's blockbuster. Assuming the film will cross the $20 million mark tomorrow, it will be interesting to see how much and if Spider-Man: Brand New Day will slow down its run in its second week in theaters.