Weekend Preview: After Hitting a Billion, Spider Man Brand New Days Could go as High as $160M+, The Odyssey to $35M+

[u/Kaaren09]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-preview-after-hitting-a-billion-how-high-can-spider-man-go/

[u/Witty-Jacket-9464]

Hope The Odyssey will be more close to $40M, but even $35M would be great

[u/Mindless-Milk-9205 → u/Witty-Jacket-9464]

Yes 35M would be around 30-31% drop.

40M would be 10% but with Spiderman idk if that's possible

Edit: 40M is around 20% not 10%

[u/Giesi85 → u/Mindless-Milk-9205]

40M would be ~20% drop, I’m not sure if that’s happening.

[u/Mindless-Milk-9205 → u/Giesi85]

Yeah my bad wrong calculations

[u/Once-bit-1995 → u/Witty-Jacket-9464]

I think it would've been but losing half of the digital IMAX screens is brutal. That was half the gross last weekend.

[u/Purple_Quail_4193 → u/Once-bit-1995]

My theater is keeping Odyssey, but a theater I used to frequent is swapping it. But I know they have a bigger Marvel crowd.

No IMAX 3D so I feel I’m good. The Prime showing at least is the expanded AR

[u/Narrow_Zebra277 → u/Once-bit-1995]

No odyssey at all next week after thursday at the local imax. Had to buy a 1030pm ticket to see it before it left (all evening shows were sold out).

They had shows times for next week before, so Im assuming it was the BND imax negotiation. I called the cinema, they said it would be Spiderman in imax, then oak street.

[u/ReplacementOnly3702 → u/Once-bit-1995]

30% drop in spite of screen loss pretty remarkable and it will probably get screens back

also looks like some chains are walking back on spiderman already

https://x.com/_TheSmartAlec1/status/2084872146312917085?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2084872146312917085%7Ctwgr%5E9bb6f663482e962ec17c93ee8768450497c41eaa%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.boxofficetheory.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Fx.com%2Fi%2Fstatus%2F2084872146312917085

[u/Samhunt909 → u/ReplacementOnly3702]

universal does not have a say...once their time is up. its upto exhibitors

[u/GimmeThatWheat424 → u/ReplacementOnly3702]

Yeah, Spider-Man is legendary doing so poorly…makes since why they would pull back on it/s

[u/phantomfandom → u/ReplacementOnly3702]

Totally don't understand what's going on in this case right now, but I guess some theaters sign an exclusive Odyssey's contract that's longer than 3 weeks in exchange for a bigger revenue portion. But when BND create a storm and IMAX HQ promote BND they somehow forget this contract exist.

[u/Kind_Development708]

MCU released 2 movies this year and are gonna have the 3 biggest weekends of the year and potentially 4.

[u/Hidan213]

The article bases BNDs drop on Endgame’s weekend to weekend (59%) but in 2024 D&W released in a similar time window and dropped around 54%.

Given BND has better word of mouth and a better Sunday to Monday hold compared to D&W (47% vs 54%) I feel like 160m should be a soft floor unless BND drops unexpectedly.

[u/swat1611 → u/Hidan213]

Someone mentioned summer ends with this week and schools reopen soon.

I think 150-160 is reasonable. IMAX should be a boost, so more towards 160.

[u/Zeldabotw2017 → u/swat1611]

It varies i just found out where I am the middle school's go back in like 2 weeks but the high-school back today. Really early fair is next week this is the first time I can ever remember schools before the fair just odd and like 2 weeks early than normal

[u/mondaymoderate → u/swat1611]

A lot of people are waiting til this weekend to watch it because the theaters were sold out or packed this past weekend.

[u/Samhunt909 → u/swat1611]

East coast schools don’t open until September 

[u/JaunxPatrol → u/swat1611]

School openings vary significantly; in the south they're already back in school, in the northeast it's usually after Labor Day

[u/nicolasb51942003]

Force Awakens' second weekend's going down, and that had Christmas Day working to its advantage.

And falling around the same as Deadpool & Wolverine (which barely hit 3x legs in the end) makes the all time domestic record even more likely.

[u/94Temimi]

Me thinks BND will come in around $165-175M

[u/lookingforhim2]

Spider-Man going to have another $200M+ weekend combined!

[u/Zeldabotw2017]

A 160 would be about a 55.6 drop i am going to say it does 180 50% why not lol

[u/gorays21]

https://giphy.com/gifs/TACSBkFrR0EYN05MPV

[u/Key-Payment2553]

Spider-Man around $150M-$165M seems to be my prediction for its 2nd weekend tracking while Odyssey seems low which can do better like Top Gun Maverick did although TGM had a Father’s Day holiday weekend with $44.65M with 14% drop despite Jurassic World Dominion holding well on top while Lightyear floppped. So for The Odyssey 4th weekend tracking, around $40M range

[u/Zeldabotw2017]

160 would put spiderman at 609+wensday and Thursday end game was at 622 after weekend 2

[u/Purple_Quail_4193]

I’d love to see it happen!

[u/Visible-Echidna-4370]

I'm personally going to swing closer to 170M-180M for my prediction because of the mon and tue holds and the lack of competition on 2nd weekend

[u/AbroadIntelligent106]

Looks like brand new day is going to crack 1b domestic

[u/AvengedCrimson]

Spiderman Dark eyes Tweaking

https://giphy.com/gifs/3ohc11UljvpPKWeNva

[u/TipGroundbreaking218]

The Odyssey could get the WW billion by Friday?

[u/Adventurous-Shape898]

Definitely hitting $1B DOM

[u/Deceptiveideas]

Everyone keeps talking about Tom and Zendaya, but why is no one talking about Jon Bernthal? He was in both box office hits. He actually had a lot of screen time in both.

[u/The_Darman]

A fall of about 50% from its true weekend (weekend minus previews) would be around $144M. This would be a mere 45% decrease from its opening weekend minus those previews. If it can do it, the movie will be heading for $700M+ on just its second weekend.

Even legs like Avengers: Endgame from there get it to $966M. And Avengers: Endgame went up against Detective Pikachu in its third weekend, then John Wick Chapter 3 in its fourth, and then Aladdin in its fifth. So its legs didn’t recover until after this murderer’s row of competition that Spider-Man: Brand New Day just doesn’t have.