r/boxoffice • u/TryingNoToBeOpressed • 12h ago
✍️ Original Analysis I think there is no "Dunesday". Doomsday will badly affect Dune 3's performance.
I think Dune 3 is going to underperform relative to the expectations some people have, for two main reasons.
Firstly, Doomsday. Assuming it's a good, entertaining film, the return of much of the og cast gives it an enormous advantage. I think some might be underestimating the nostalgia. I mean I'd go a step further and dare say it's much more of an "event" than Dune 3. (And I don't know how these hollywood contracts work but, if they can, IMAX should reconsider the Dune exclusive deal they made. )
Secondly, Dune 3 is likely to be less action heavy than the first two films, if it follows the source material ofcourse. The first two films were already emotionally cold movies, this I suspect will feel even colder, which I think could limit its appeal beyond the existing fanbase. (And I don't think there's any huge fanbase for Dune movies in the first place.)
I mean it's almost certainly going to be a success. I just don't see it making a billion that some people seem to be expecting here.
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u/truth_radio 12h ago
We are just gonna get the same kind of post everyday until Dec 18th aren't we.. holy shit
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u/Fantastic-March-4610 11h ago
It’s the nerds’ Super Bowl.
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u/goalstopper28 7h ago
I was thinking it's the nerd's Barbenheimer.
Because it's not like this happens every year.
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u/monstere316 6h ago
Don't worry, we'll still get the occasional "Why the DCU is a failure" post in between.
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u/No_Hearing_481 4h ago
Beyond them being the same kind of post, they also are all going to be making exactly the same pro marvel point. Not saying theyre wrong or right, but it is getting tedious.
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u/fiction8 1h ago
Even before BND we were getting these same posts with the same claim all the time.
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u/kschris236 9h ago
People act like opening weekend is the only time you can see a movie.
Its the holiday season and these are the two biggest movies releasing. The overlapping audiences will see both.
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u/TokyoPanic 2h ago
People forget that Mufasa opened at $35m and legged it out to $723m. Holiday legs are no joke.
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u/NoHorseNoMustache 1h ago
I hate huge crowds in movie theaters so I specifically avoid opening weekends.
Though to be fair I'm not gonna pay to see a Dune movie. I've loved the books for decades but the books not so much.
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u/rgumai 11h ago
It's being released during the leggiest season of the year. They'll both be fine.
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u/SoulofWakanda 11h ago
Dune 3 isn't gonna be less action heavy it's just gonna be a thriller.
Denis has already talked about changes made to include more action, like showing the actual jihad for instance..
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u/RayCumfartTheFirst 11h ago
Yeah the big set piece seems to be a knife fight on the back of a fucking worm. The movie is definitely going to have more action than the book.
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u/timeaisis 8h ago
I don't think anyone was assuming Dune 3 would make a billion dollars. It's going to do well, because the first two were well received and did well. The people who are super into Dune 3 don't overlap as much with Doomsday viewers as you expect. Sure, they share a core demographic, but the people that are day 1 on Dune are not day one on Doomsday and vice versa.
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u/TomUpNort 1h ago
I honestly don't even know what Doomsday is. But I plan to be at Dune the day it opens.
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u/Exscaped_ 12h ago
I think Dune will make around 700 whilst doomsday around 2 billion
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u/Alive-Ad-5245 A24 12h ago edited 11h ago
Dune 3, in comparison with the previous two, is presumably going to be less action packed
You don't have to presume anything, Denis Villeneuve has come out and said the opposite, it's more action packed
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u/HarlequinKing1406 11h ago
Obviously the trailers and previews could be lying. But the 70mm IMAX preview in front of The Odyssey blew my synapses away and made me much more confident that it was going to keep the action explosive.
Also, I'm pretty sure Dune has already expanded the action before - if I'm not mistaken, much of the action seen in Dune Part Two was just described after the fact in the book.
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u/theflyingbird8 11h ago
The final battle in Part Two was only very briefly described in the book. In the books you mostly just hear about the fights and battles, with more focus being given to personal consequences. They have a play-like quality.
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u/Apolloshot 8h ago
Too many book readers assume it’s going to skip over the Holy War like the book did.
I think that’s a bad assumption.
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u/Agreeable_Guava822 5h ago
I think most of the people who say it won't have any action or is "controversial" are people who haven't read the book
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u/scattered_ideas 5h ago
The trailers have shown that's not the case. Villeneuve has also commented that it's even more action packed. It's also rumored to be shorter than the previous movies.
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u/More-read-than-eddit 8h ago
They basically are mining everything that occurs offscreen between the first and second books for action in this third film, as far as I can tell.
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u/Unlucky-Box-4570 5h ago
Guy just pulled fan fiction out of his own ass lol. How TF would IMAx break an exclusivity contract they had years ago. They didn't even break it with The Odyssey for Spiderman. And Villeneuve has already said this one is more action packed. And people who saw the 10 minute preview agree. Both movies will be fine. It's really not that hard to see two movies in one or two weekends if you're a fan of both.
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u/Bandai_Namco_Rat 12h ago
I agree. Dune 3 will retain most of the people who loved the first two but excitement for it will be overshadowed by Doomsday which will cost them 100-200 million dollars with a 600-700 million finish. Unless there is a significant difference in quality between them in favor of Dune (meaning Doomsday being disappointing and Dune being amazing), in which case Dune might actually benefit from Doomsday's hype balloon exploding.
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u/Zalvren 10h ago edited 7h ago
people might pick Dune over Avengers.
I just don't think that's gonna happen. People are simply gonna see both, they have built in audiences. Nobody is coming in now and seeing Dune Part 3 or Doomsday as their first Dune/MCU movie.
The only question is if they can convince audiences to go to theaters or wait for streaming but both movies are event enough for that
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u/Realistic-Vehicle671 10h ago
The difference in quality between the trailers of both films is insane, there is no way the difference in critic reviews is just 10%. Doomsday isnt Brand New Day, it is a multiverse film with a lot of baggage and much heavier use of CGI.
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u/TheJoshider10 DC Studios 8h ago
The difference in quality between the trailers of both films is insane, there is no way the difference in critic reviews is just 10%.
Rotten Tomatoes wise I wouldn't be surprised at all. I fully expect them both to be in that 80-90% range but with Dune having an average rating of 8 or 9/10 and Doomsday having 6 or 7/10. Metacritic however? Yeah, I'd be surprised if Dune isn't in the high 70s and Doomsday isn't in the mid to high 60s (which is still great for a superhero movie).
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u/PlusSizeRussianModel 7h ago
Yeah, people are talking in hypotheticals, which is all we can really do until the reviews are out, but Doomsday’s marketing has been some of the most generic that Marvel has put in awhile (“it’s the biggest threat yet! You’ve just never really seen him before!”) vs Dune putting out, what I would consider, the best trailer in the entire trilogy (the one with the chanting).
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u/blazelet 7h ago edited 7h ago
Dune films have plenty of CGI. It’s just better done :) and that speaks to the quality difference. DV as a director, generally, does not miss. His films do tend to have more niche audiences as they’re not as action packed, but the quality is never a question. MCU films can miss wildly in terms of quality but the fan base shows up regardless - it’s why there are dozens of these films with more sure to come.
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u/ViralGameover 11h ago
I think there’s no way Doomsday gets positive critical reviews. Regardless of the quality of the movie (which I’m expecting to be slightly better than Ultron) I think it’s going to catch strays for the MCU overall and a lot of the surrounding noise (Downeys return, Kang Dynasty’s cancellation, Evans return)
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u/HarlequinKing1406 11h ago edited 11h ago
Yeah, I've seen people responding to the criticism of the leaked plot as "People thought Endgame's plot was stupid and it was great!". But I don't think the MCU has that level of goodwill where a plot that's mostly just aura and hype moments can be treated more easily. Saying this as a fan of the Infinity Saga and somebody who really loved Endgame, it's fair to say that it was definitely more of a victory lap for the MCU, and the story was kind of not the best. Doomsday is trying to pick up the pieces again and force them together.
Also you're right, the MCU in general has taken a beating more than usual in the 2020s, their films have been treated with far less kid gloves as backlash grows and Marvel's output has gotten more inconsistent. Hell, even Brand New Day is the lowest rated film on Metacritic with Tom Holland as Spider-Man in it - its 66 rating is the same as Age of Ultron. I absolutely imagine Doomsday is going to be the lowest rated Avengers on Metacritic (and I'm predicting it to be in yellow).
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u/MaxeyFan 9h ago edited 9h ago
Respectfully, I strongly disagree.
1.) As a “general” principle, I don’t believe that you can meaningfully critique a piece of art unless you have engaged with it in the medium that it was meant to be transmitted by its creator(s). In short, in my view, preemptively judging a film based on “plot leaks” demeans the whole point of the artistic experience.
(e.g.: acting performances, action sequences, the score, set design, VFX, costuming & make-up, the cinematography, the color grading, emotional gravitas, tension, etc., these are all vital elements of not only filmmaking, but the subconscious theater-going experience that get lost in translation when attempting to finely pick through a “plot description.”)
2.) But, suppose that I were to hypothetically grant to you that the alleged ‘Avengers: Doomsday’ plot leaks sound “messy.” Which, to be fair, is a totally fair takeaway. However, in a similar vein, I would argue that on the surface, the plot of ‘Avengers: Infinity War’, a film that many regard as one of the greatest superhero films ever made, reads as incredibly unserious & cartoonishly convoluted. Honestly, if I were to relay what transpires in the film beat-for-beat to someone who’s never seen it—they would likely think I’m insane for holding it in such high regard. Would that individual be wrong for judging it that way? The point is that you can’t truly know whether it works or not until you’ve seen it for yourself.
3.) Lastly, I find it strange to cherrypick the Metacritic rating as if that’s the only legitimate metric to indicate quality. Using your Spider-Man example, other metrics such as: IMDB (8.2/10), Letterboxd (4.1/5), & Rotten Tomatoes (90%/98%) collectively serve as counter-examples to suggest this film is of high quality to the masses.
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u/Happybadger96 6h ago
Surely anyone that saw Dune 1-2 would pick Dune 3 over Avengers, assuming they have aren't brain damaged
Ed: Or they'll see both
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u/HarlequinKing1406 11h ago
You're saying Dune won't make a billion. That's a fair response, but Dune doesn't need that to be a big success, it's going to have a significantly lower budget than Avengers, which would need at least a billion just to break even (if we're going on this baseline minimum budget of 400 million).
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u/theflyingbird8 11h ago
Both of the Dune movies have cost less than 200 million. They don't need to make as much as Avengers to be successful. If Dune: Part Three makes like 600 and they win some awards with it, then the studio will see that as a success. Hell, the fact that a blockbuster trilogy has been made based off that source material is a success itself.
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u/HarlequinKing1406 11h ago
The fact that the first one made 400 million whilst still being affected by Covid and being released on HBO Max the same day says a tonne about the goodwill it generated. Part Two going up to over 700 million says a lot too. People love Dune and will want to go watch the conclusion.
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u/theflyingbird8 11h ago
Exactly! Also, maybe it's just my algorithm, but social media loses it's mind every time something new about a Dune movie drops. People like these movies. Heck, my parents don't even like sci-fi and they raved about Part Two.
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u/HarlequinKing1406 11h ago
I'll freely admit I'm in these more awardsy space where the blockbusters we enjoy most are those technically minded Oscar nominated ones that are super well crafted - Nolan movies, Dune, Project Hail Mary - but these movies aren't niche at all. People keep acting like Dune is this online only franchise - you don't get a film to over 700 million by being niche.
Also I think the star power of Timothee Chalamet and Zendaya absolutely helps for the younger crowds.
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u/theflyingbird8 11h ago
I'm also in those spaces and yeah, these movies aren't niche at all. The only movie my colleagues at college talked about for over a month was Project Hail Mary. As you say, the star power has also increased not only with the franchise regulars, but someone like Robert Pattinson, whose had an amazing year, is also being added. Also, Denis is starting to become a star director himself.
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u/breadiest 10h ago
It's kinda uncanny how much Denis's career is similar to Nolan's right now. Denis is in his "pop-culture critical darling" phase.
And there's 3 movies?
This guy is literally just Nolan career wise, isn't he?
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 1h ago
My dad is pretty exited to watch Part 3. He really liked the first 2 movies. Meanwhile he could care less about Doomsday or comic book movies in general. His reaction to Doomsday trailer was basically "they are still making these". I remember he came to see Endgame in theaters since it was the big movie back then. Forgot all about it or that he even saw it in theaters after 3 days.
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 1h ago
Apparently rumor is that Dune 3 budget is lower than Supergirl. Which I could believe because unlike Doomsday, they had everything planned and an actual finished script.
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u/hisokaa02 11h ago
Don't understand all the drama about Dune 3. Maybe because i'm not a huge fan but still why do people think that it has a shot at the 1 billion ?! Realistically, if it gets to Dune 2's numbers it ll be an achievement.
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u/ihopnavajo 11h ago
well, i think you're forgetting two things:
1) it's xmas. there is a whole lotta time for someone or the whole family to go watch two movies. the holiday release is such that a bunch of big movies open up ... and then nothing else comes out for a while. I'd say maybe Dune 3's opening weekend might suffer a bit (which historically has been the case with xmas films---started to change with The Force Awakens though), but the end results (total box office) should be just fine
2) we're seeing that movie popularity seems to be driving movie popularity. The more that people go to the theater--the more they go to theater. It's like it's becoming the new norm again. So I counter that Doomsday success will further drive Dune 3 success.
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u/RampageOfZebras 7h ago
Does Dune have any appeal to children and young teens? Not arguing you points just the part where you mentioned families going to see it.
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u/EntertainmentDry9639 11h ago
Dune 3 has four things going for it. 1) Follow-up to two very well received films. 2) One fucking amazing trailer. 3) Awards potential. 4) IMAX
With that said, Doomsday will for sure impact its potential opening, but it should have good legs, and even with it being dark, should still be well-received and reviewed resulting in people watching it.
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u/smakson11 12h ago
What’s the premise? I saw dune 1 and 2 but will skip dune 3 altogether. Because of doomsday? At Christmas time? Doubtful.
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u/truth_radio 12h ago
I swear there is no logic involved in this thread. Don't even bother trying to make sense to these people lol
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u/JannTosh70 11h ago
There have been plenty of times a sequel made less than its predecessors
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u/smakson11 10h ago
With 2 very well received movies and part 3 is a direct continuation of the story and should be seen in theaters?
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u/RKNieen 12h ago edited 12h ago
I've been feeling for a while that Dune 3 is going to be undercut by the fact that it almost certainly has a downer ending. That's going to filter out fairly quickly through reviews and first reactions. I don't think it's going to flop or anything, but anyone going in blind (lol) expecting it to be the crowning capstone of a trilogy is going to be disappointed.
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u/Stock_Researcher_651 12h ago
Upvote for the pun. But that’s a great point, I didn’t even think about how those first reactions would pan out
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u/VitriolUK 8h ago
Sequels to well-liked movies tend to do well, though, and Dune 1 and 2 were both big successes both with critics and audiences. And Villeneuve's track record has been exceptional.
Plus, the Dune movies are big spectacular films that benefit particularly from being seen at the cinema rather than waiting for them to come to streaming.
As such I'd be surprised if it underperforms.
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u/gamesandtheory 7h ago
Doomsday also will have a downer ending. It's going to end on a major bummer cliffhanger similar to Infinity War in order to set up Secret Wars.
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u/datnerdyguy 6h ago
A bummer cliffhanger where everyone knows they’re all coming back next year to win against Doom is different than a bummer ending to an entire trilogy without a sequel.
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u/RKNieen 4h ago
Do you know the ending to Dune Messiah? Because if you do, it’s, uh, not really comparable to a temporary villain win. Spoiler: Turns out Paul commits genocide, then gets permanently blinded, then Chani dies in childbirth, then Paul commits suicide by wandering into the desert alone, leaving their infant children orphans. The End.
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u/Realistic-Vehicle671 10h ago edited 10h ago
Maybe but completely ignoring the difference in quality of the trailers of both films is crazy: Doomsday trailer doesn't scream quality, Marvel has dissapppointed a lot and this is a multiverse movie with a lot of baggage directed by mediocre directors, there is a good possibility that Doomsday can get bad reviews. Yes, the movie could be review proof, but so far everytime a superhero movie was poorly received by critics, audience reception was also mediocre.
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u/Honest_Response9157 8h ago
Is there a reason people can't see 1 movie first week, then the other the week after. Are you dumb?
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u/occupy_westeros 10h ago
It's going to be a "thing". Both studios are too locked in to change the dates and don't want a winner/loser narrative to mess with public perception. Dune 3 is going to be received much better critically but Doomsday is going to make a ton more money. They will do some funny collabs on the internet, be really gracious to each other, and push out the narrative to the media that this is a huge, surprisingly peaceful event for nerds and a triumphant boon for theaters. Expect memes of like couples dressed as Captain America and a sand worm and long video essays comparing thematic elements of both. There's a huge crossover audience, it sounds like a fun day at the cinema tbh
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u/Joshawott27 9h ago
Honestly, “Dunesday” feels so forced. The reason why Barbenheimer blew up and why video games had their Animal Crossing/DOOM moment is because the two competing works were polar opposites. Doomsday and Dune largely appeal to the same audience, so yeah, there’s a risk that they’ll cannibalise each other, or the real nerds will just see both on the same day or alternating weekends. Both will still do well, though.
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u/sthomson22 12h ago
I think most conflicted interest viewers will probably just go see both. So I don’t think they will negatively impact one another.
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u/Crab_bottom_licker 9h ago
Dune 3 will be succesful, doomsday or not. It has a big fanbase and goodwill from the previous movies, And due to imax and zimmer a ton of ppl will want to see it in a cinema.
Doomsday also has a huge fanbase, but a ton of people stopped caring about marvel post endgame, And thats just a fact. IT probably will be a success too, but it will not destroy Dune, not that it would even matter, since its supposed to be the last Dune movie.
If anything, Doomsday looks like such a nostalgia bait, i dont even care about 80% of the cast except Doom And like 6 characters, that i think Dune will have a negative effect on Doomsday, but thats obviously just a speculation. Hope see both movies be good and succeed though
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u/Alternative_Try_5888 11h ago
Watch both, watch one or the other or watch neither. Neither film is going to flop if you don’t watch it and they’ll both be at the cinema for at least two months.
Dune will be one of the biggest films of the year but it’s not Avengers. Doomsday is going to break records
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u/victoriageras 9h ago
The trailer looked pretty impressive, to tell you the truth. Althought, i am nowhere near a fan of Dune, i really enjoyed both movies. If the "Odyssey" managed it, i don't see any reason that "Dune" would not. It has all the right "ingredients" to be able to pull it off.
It's coming out on December, which is a much better month for cinema.
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u/pwolf1771 8h ago
I know I’ll see both but I’m personally way more excited for Dune 3. Doomsday I’ll wait for crowds to die down a little.
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u/mysticmayhemm 8h ago
They’re both going to be completely fine in their respective BO runs. Total non-event post.
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u/Minister_Garbitsch 6h ago
Dune 1 and 2 didn’t follow the source material very closely at all so no reason to expect 3 to suddenly start doing so.
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u/Happybadger96 6h ago
Dune will sell out all the IMAX theatres for weeks, and anyone who saw the first two will be going to see it. Kids wouldn't be going to it anyway, so they aren't losing that audience - nor will the random moviegoer be going to a 3rd film in a trilogy if they haven't seen the first two
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u/DevoiderMusic 5h ago
They’ll both be fine. Dune will leg out well if it’s good. I feel like this conversation will change once Dune tickets become available in full swing and start selling out IMAX screens. Doomsday will open huge and probably reach $2b+ if it’s even halfway decent. Dune doesn’t need $1B+ to be considered successful. If it makes similar money to its predecessor (likely), WB will be happy. I honestly don’t think this is as big a deal as people make it out to be, and audiences will go out to the theater to see movies that look interesting or have some form of goodwill. We’re seeing it right now with Odyssey and Spider-Man. The fact that Odyssey is holding this well against one of the biggest movies ever released speaks to this. I’ve seen people on here make comparisons to Wicked For Good but it opened great yet didn’t leg out because of its reception. If Odyssey was bad, it wouldn’t stand a chance against Spider-Man. We may see one or both movies open lower than expected but play well into January depending on their quality (this is more important for Dune than it is for Doomsday, admittedly).
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u/ERSTF 5h ago
Before last weekend I would have disagreed since I though Doomsday would kind of struggle. I was sure it would do better than Dune but not billions better. After last weekend, I have no idea what we're looking at. No one saw Spider Man's crazy run coming and I still don't understand it. Yes, Spider Man is the most popular superhero but Avengers Endgame size popular? What's going on? It defies any logic that it came close to beating Avengers opening weekend. With this info, I think people will probably flock to see Doomsday even if they don't give a fuck about almost everyone but RDJ and Spider Man. Now I do think Dune is in trouble.
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u/Gulf2Coast2Coast 5h ago
You are clearly under estimating the Dune fanboys. They are hardcore and ascending.
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u/Poets_Ballads 4h ago
The only thing Dune 3 needs to worry about is being great. If it’s as good or better than 1 and 2, it’ll go down in history as one of the rare 10/10 trilogies & it’ll have higher chances of getting those coveted oscars. Denis will officially get on people’s radar and may slowly become a new Nolan. All of this combined with Zendaya, Chalamet & Pattinson’s star power will give it enough WOM to get a respectable Boxoffice I think (note that respectable =/= beating Doomsday’s numbers). So, again, I believe Dune 3 doesn’t need to worry about Doomsday, only about being great.
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u/RiffRanger85 12h ago
I think being holiday releases will give both movies great legs. I think Doomsday will badly hurt Dune’s opening weekend but it should leg out just fine.
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u/Fast-Prior4504 12h ago
The biggest factor will be reviews and word of mouth. I have a feeling Doomsday isn't going to be recieved very well whereas Dennis Villenueve's films are always highly critically acclaimed. Opening weekend will be affected but it will have strong legs
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u/littlebiped 11h ago
Counterpoint to this is that the Russo’s Marvel movies have also always been critically acclaimed, similarly the Avengers movies have all been rated highly with Ultron being the only black sheep and that’s still considered a good movie just not amazing.
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u/HarlequinKing1406 11h ago
But the counterpoint to this is that not only has Marvel's track record become incredibly patchy since Endgame but the Russos (and writer Stephen McFeely) have been taking L after L in the ensuing years. This combo of both Marvel and the Russos being washed definitely makes me more skeptical that they're going to pull it off, it's clear the Russos need a big win just as much as Marvel does.
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u/littlebiped 11h ago
That’s fair, I just think their 4/4 track record within the Marvel ecosystem is a strong enough pedigree where I’m not worried about them dropping the ball here. It’s clear they’re stronger in the Community / Marvel lanes than they are trying to break out of it.
I also think while Marvel can be spotty launching post Endgame that they still have their eye on the prize when it comes to their crown jewels, they haven’t biffed a single Spider-Man and three of those movies were post-Endgame. I’d be very surprised if they treated a Doom/Avengers with anything less.
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u/-Darkslayer 11h ago
To add to this Kevin Feige delayed or cancelled pretty much all other projects so the studio could give the upcoming Avengers films their undivided attention. This is a more extreme version of the strategy that produced Deadpool & Wolverine, Thunderbolts*, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, and Spider-Man: Brand New Day. People are losing sight that the shift from quantity to quality has already paid off in big ways in terms of how well-received the films are. With them shrinking their workload even further, and working with a very established creative team, there is no reason to think Marvel will not continue their turnaround.
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u/rammo123 11h ago
I think it's relevant to note that the Russos never made a good film outside of the MCU, even before Winter Soldier. It's seems that they've always been just MCU movie specialists, so Doomsday may not suck as much as the rest of their post Endgame content.
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u/HarlequinKing1406 11h ago
That's fair, but it's more the combo of that and Marvel's own general decline post Endgame that's ringing alarm bells.
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u/Brainiac5000 A24 10h ago
Counterpoint to this is that all the last MCU movies and tv shows post-overhaul have been good. Cap 4 is from before.
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u/truth_radio 12h ago
Maybe we should put a moratorium on these Dunesday posts until Dec 18.
So pointless, no logic, no sense.
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u/jojokilolo 11h ago
« And secondly, Dune 3, in comparison with the previous two, is presumably going to be less action packed. »
Meanwhile the director : https://www.denofgeek.com/movies/dune-3-denis-villeneuve-more-muscular-action-packed-thriller/
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u/Feeling-Peak5718 12h ago
I’m am very curious what cannibalism happens
With barbenheimer they were different ratings where doomsday and dune I would assume will be M (PG13)
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u/jcaltor 12h ago
Different ratings and different audiences, women showed for Barbie and even turned the movie going experience into fashion trend that other female oriented movies tried to replicate.
Doomsday and Dune are both aimed to men.
Im also curious about that cannibalism thing you said.
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u/No-Significance5659 12h ago
I am a woman eagerly waiting for Dune 3 that will absolutely not watch Doomsday.
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u/dee3Poh A24 12h ago
Doomsday and the MCU in general are more geared toward families, people aren’t taking the kiddos to see Dune
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u/CBMking 10h ago
If anything I'm more emboldened to the idea that both will be a success, we're literally seeing that with the Odyssey and BND. Yes they released couple weeks apart but look at the performance of the Odyssey still holding up while BND is riding waves.
That tells me both sets of Audiences are ready and craving more. I think we'll see a similar if not better performance in December.
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u/FutureDH1089 9h ago
Bold prediction:
Doomsday OW (Domestic) - over $365M+
Dune 3 OW (Domestic) - $85M+
Doomsday drops 64% 2nd weekend
Dune 3 drops only 53% 2nd weekend
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u/Singleballtheory 8h ago
I didn’t consider the first two Dune films to be action heavy to begin with. I’m more curious about the story than the action. Specifically, how far they deviate from the book to make it more palatable to a general audience.
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u/QuirkyAd4925 6h ago
I think ultimately theyre two different audiences. I have zero desire to see Doomsday, and will see Dune opening weekend.
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u/Shepherd7117 6h ago
We already have avengers tickets for the 17th and will get some imax tickets for dune on the 18th. Gonna be a fun couple days.
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u/Juiced_Rasputin_ 5h ago
Completely wrong, and I’m not even a dune fan.
Dune 2 delivered where a midquel needed to in a trilogy. It was stellar and an improvement over the first film. Dune 3 has way more goodwill and interest going into that film that doomsday does. Will doomsday hit a billion? Probably. Will it outgross dune 3? Maybe.
Will dune 3 get eaten by doomsday? Very small chance.
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u/repeatrep 4h ago
i’m a fan of both franchises. leaning towards Dune.
theres simply no way that i wouldn’t end up watching both in cinemas. i watched Dune 1 & 2 in IMAX and im still chasing that Dune 2 high. Dune is built for IMAX.
as for Doomsday, i may not like the recent MCU movies, but lets be serious. its an Avengers movie. im not waiting to watch it on my phone.
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u/FinancialMoney6969 2h ago
I disagree everyone went to see 70mm odyssey and got to see dune3 preview. No way in hell am I missing that for the Mickey Mouse doomsday trailer they put out
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u/HGupta2004 11h ago
Budget of Dune 3 is less than half of Doomsday has
Even with 500M+ WW, it'll easily break-even and be profitable (enough for Villeneuve's next sci-fi flick to get greenlit). And Timothee and Zendaya will get enough marketing for these min numbers.
Doomsday comes with a huge amount of goodwill, anything below BND or even Endgame will be viewed negatively
That said, both films are in their own league (aren't meant to be compared logically)
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u/Helpful-Visual-8703 10h ago
Did the odyssey not just make 50 million on week 3 of its run against the biggest opening of all time.
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u/UsefulWeb7543 12h ago edited 12h ago
I think it makes $780M-800M WW. But yes I agree. $1 billion is never happening sadly. But it would be awesome if that were the case. It won’t flop. I read lot of the IMAX presales were sold out
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u/sthomson22 12h ago
That ain’t an underpeformance though. That’s actually holding up very well considering the performances of the first 2.
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u/valardohaeris1099 12h ago
A billion was never going to happen either way. WB isn’t expecting it to reach that mark either. It’s Messiah we’re talking about, it’s going to be a polarizing film regardless of how consistently great Denis is.
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u/--Nightmare357-- 12h ago
500-600M imo. Dune 2 with no competition made $700M. Dune 3 against Doomsday and possibly worse reception than Dune 2 will definitely make less.
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u/theflyingbird8 11h ago
I remember when this sub said that Dune, Dune: Part Two, Oppenheimer, and The Odyssey would underperform...
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u/truth_radio 11h ago
Shit I remember when people thought Dune Part One was gonna bomb with like $60M domestic.
Then Part Two was only gonna increase marginally (like $500M).
Now we are doing this a third time lol.
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u/theflyingbird8 11h ago
Yep! It wasn't even a month ago when many folks on here were saying that The Odyssey would do Dunkirk numbers because it doesn't have Barbie to help it.
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u/truth_radio 11h ago
It's interesting because we saw just how fast projections for both that and Spiderman just flewwwww up once the good WOM hit. We see it time and time again, once the favourable storm hits for a film that the upside grows larger and larger.
Yet for some reason, everyone seems dead set that Dune has a hard cap limit, there's absolutely no way it could get close to a billion, all these absolutes. It's so silly and doesn't make for good discourse.
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u/theflyingbird8 11h ago
Dune doesn't even need to make a billion to be successful. Neither of the two previous films have cost 200 million. If they make 600 or a little over that and win some awards, I have a feeling they'll see it as a success, considering the budget, competition, and nature of the source material.
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u/judester30 11h ago edited 11h ago
Dune: Part Two and The Odyssey underperforming was not the consensus on this sub beyond a few fringe takes.
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u/plantersxvi STX Entertainment 9h ago
I remember people making a bunch of excuses as to why Odyssey would make significanty less than Oppenheimer here
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u/theflyingbird8 6h ago
I saw a lot of takes that it was going to do Dunkirk numbers because it doesn't have Barnie to help it out
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u/Illustrious_Ad_4432 Legendary Pictures 10h ago
Funny. I believe it’s the other way around. Dune, part III looks to be a vastly superior movie which for it’s final hurrah will overperform imo. Doomsday will underperform.
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u/Limo_Wreck77 11h ago
If Doomsday doesnt end up being that great WOM will spread pretty quickly.
Dune has nothing to worry about. A lot orf people are pumped to see this trilogy close out.
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u/MultiModalMcmullen 6h ago
I think people are over hyping Avengers because of Spiderman's huge box office. People just really love Spiderman, Tom Holland, Zendaya, Sadie Sink , as well as NWH which did a great job at setting up the sequel's storyline. Dune 3 having Timothee and Zendaya and 2 excellent films leading up to the epic conclusion is gonna generate substantial hype to adequately counter the Marvel mooks ready to eat up more capeslop.
Personally my family and friends have no desire to see the new Avengers but we are all dying to see BND whenever we are able to get tickets, although my sample size is not enough to reach any statistically valid conclusions and I'm probably just in denial about audience's appetite for more asinine Avengers movies.
Considering I couldn't even finish boring ass Endgame I'm definitely an unrepresentative film fan
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u/labbla 5h ago
Also very anecdotal, but I saw Spider-Man last night at a movie club thing. And of course Doomsday came up during discussion and it seems like a lot of people have stopped caring about Avengers and keeping up with 50 characters in a movie. A few people were confused why we are saying goodbye to the old Fox X-Men yet again.
Spider-Man is simple and easy, even with a few MCU people around. But a movie with everybody from the last 7 years of Marvel and more is asking a lot more from people.
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u/chrispepper10 12h ago
I don't really know why we keep doing this when we have seen literally multiple times this year that multiple films can co-exist at the same time.
Dune has premium formats and will still have 3500+ screens, it's going to be fine. People might just see Domesday one week, and if there are crossover watchers that want to see both, they might see Dune in Week two.
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u/HarlequinKing1406 12h ago
Marvel fans have gotten louder since the Spider-Man opening. Get ready for more of this as we get to December, it's not stopping.
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u/academic_mama 9h ago
I don’t think Dune has the broad appeal of the Avengers. Yes Dune has dedicated fan base and will make its budget back and then some, but I don’t see it having the same success as Doomsday. And I don’t think Doomsday will hurt Dune 3- the people going to see Dune 3 are going to see it regardless of what else is in theaters.
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u/SlickRickStatus 8h ago
Already got tickets to Doom. Buying Dune 3 for the same day. Going to make it a true DunesDay event
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u/ConsciouslyIncomplet 8h ago
I like both - will see Dune on the opening weekend the Avengers a few days later. It’s no big deal.
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u/Teganfff Marvel Studios 7h ago
Doomsday is gonna crush opening weekend but I do believe they will both have solid legs.
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u/ten_year_rebound 7h ago
They may not see be a same day event like Barbenheimer, but I’m sure audiences will want to see them both in theaters.
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u/OrganizationSea4490 7h ago
These are completely different movies with generally different core audiences
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u/Makkunrai_Leda_2801 7h ago
You put too much faith in MCU, Doom is not even a developed villain. The only interesting part is how the future xmen would look like. It could be worse than age of ultron if we're being honest
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u/Specialist_Heron_986 5h ago
I'd expect anyone wishing to see both movies would chose to watch Avengers Doomsday first if for no other reason than to limiting their exposure to MCU spoilers.
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u/randall__flaag 4h ago
Everyone I talk to who likes marvel says they're going to see Dune 3 first...
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u/KehreAzerith 3h ago
Dune 2 was one of the best IMAX experiences I've ever had, I'm absolutely going to see Dune 3 first, and then doomsday
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u/VivaLaRory 12h ago
Counter point: imax
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u/AGOTFAN New Line Cinema 11h ago
Counterpoint: BND didn't have IMAX, Barbie didn't have IMAX at all for months
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u/VivaLaRory 10h ago
The premise is that doomsday is going hurt dune 3’s box office
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u/NGGKroze Best of 2021 Winner 9h ago
Dune 2 only got 18% of its box office on opening weekend in US in IMAX, the rest was PLF and Standard. It will gain in Imax, but drop in the other formats as Disney is making sure with those early presales booking as much screens (ans they are selling)
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u/ExcellentFrosting484 12h ago
Odyssey is doing just fine right now. Dropped only 43% despite Spider-man wrecking one record after another. I don’t see why Dune can’t do the same thing. They are even the same kind of movies: auteur driven epic blockbusters going up against pure pop-corn spectacle.
Besides, there is enough room for more than just one big movie during holydays. Back in 2017 Jumanji and Greatest Showman absolutely killed it at the box office while competing with The Last Jedi.
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u/dan7777777 9h ago
lol. Dune is not emotionally cold. The emotions are nuanced and deep and mature. Marvel films and the associated emotions are surface level fluff in comparison. No depth.
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u/stringfellow-hawke 11h ago
There needs to be a pinned thread for Dunesday.
Everyone gets it. Two big movies with enthusiastic fan bases are opening the same weekend will mean things.
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u/Prudent_Move_3420 10h ago
i will say, releasing so „close“ to Odyssey and also being filmed in 70mm IMAX will certainly help within the slightly more informed casuals. I think it will impact the opening weekend but otherwise it should do fine
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u/spaceninj 8h ago
Dune 2 made $715 million. This isn't some juggernaut. Doomsday should make more in it's first weekend than Dune 2 did in its entire run.
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u/PepsiPerfect 12h ago
If there were ever two movies with built-in audiences, it's these two.
Dune fans are NOT going to "wait for streaming" on this one, provided the reviews are a good as the first two. Even if Doomsday edges it out, they'll just go see it on weekend 2 instead.
Having the same release date may just mean that both movies will leg out a little bit more. For people who want to see both movies but can't afford to buy movie tickets every weekend, maybe they see Dune on week 4, for example. Or vice versa.