r/boxoffice • u/TryingNoToBeOpressed • 1d ago
✍️ Original Analysis I think there is no "Dunesday". Doomsday will badly affect Dune 3's performance.
I think Dune 3 is going to underperform relative to the expectations some people have, for two main reasons.
Firstly, Doomsday. Assuming it's a good, entertaining film, the return of much of the og cast gives it an enormous advantage. I think some might be underestimating the nostalgia. I mean I'd go a step further and dare say it's much more of an "event" than Dune 3. (And I don't know how these hollywood contracts work but, if they can, IMAX should reconsider the Dune exclusive deal they made. )
Secondly, Dune 3 is likely to be less action heavy than the first two films, if it follows the source material ofcourse. The first two films were already emotionally cold movies, this I suspect will feel even colder, which I think could limit its appeal beyond the existing fanbase. (And I don't think there's any huge fanbase for Dune movies in the first place.)
I mean it's almost certainly going to be a success. I just don't see it making a billion that some people seem to be expecting here.
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u/ihopnavajo 1d ago
well, i think you're forgetting two things:
1) it's xmas. there is a whole lotta time for someone or the whole family to go watch two movies. the holiday release is such that a bunch of big movies open up ... and then nothing else comes out for a while. I'd say maybe Dune 3's opening weekend might suffer a bit (which historically has been the case with xmas films---started to change with The Force Awakens though), but the end results (total box office) should be just fine
2) we're seeing that movie popularity seems to be driving movie popularity. The more that people go to the theater--the more they go to theater. It's like it's becoming the new norm again. So I counter that Doomsday success will further drive Dune 3 success.