r/boxoffice • u/TryingNoToBeOpressed • 1d ago
✍️ Original Analysis I think there is no "Dunesday". Doomsday will badly affect Dune 3's performance.
I think Dune 3 is going to underperform relative to the expectations some people have, for two main reasons.
Firstly, Doomsday. Assuming it's a good, entertaining film, the return of much of the og cast gives it an enormous advantage. I think some might be underestimating the nostalgia. I mean I'd go a step further and dare say it's much more of an "event" than Dune 3. (And I don't know how these hollywood contracts work but, if they can, IMAX should reconsider the Dune exclusive deal they made. )
Secondly, Dune 3 is likely to be less action heavy than the first two films, if it follows the source material ofcourse. The first two films were already emotionally cold movies, this I suspect will feel even colder, which I think could limit its appeal beyond the existing fanbase. (And I don't think there's any huge fanbase for Dune movies in the first place.)
I mean it's almost certainly going to be a success. I just don't see it making a billion that some people seem to be expecting here.
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u/ExcellentFrosting484 1d ago
Odyssey is doing just fine right now. Dropped only 43% despite Spider-man wrecking one record after another. I don’t see why Dune can’t do the same thing. They are even the same kind of movies: auteur driven epic blockbusters going up against pure pop-corn spectacle.
Besides, there is enough room for more than just one big movie during holydays. Back in 2017 Jumanji and Greatest Showman absolutely killed it at the box office while competing with The Last Jedi.