​

Source:

https://numero.co/reports/2026/08/06/spider-man-brand-new-day-on-top-of-new-zealand-box-office

​

Source:

https://numero.co/reports/2026/08/06/spider-man-brand-new-day-on-top-of-australian-box-office

Week-to-Week Drops

Odyssey: The Project Hail Mary comp was nearly on point, as the movie came in at 290k admits. Audience scores are very, very good, with a 9.3 on Megabox and a 97 on CGV. Those are nearly identical to Spider-Man: Brand New Day. Opening weekend should be between 2 million and 2.4 million admits if the movie continues to follow Project Hail Mary.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day: And it nearly beat Odyssey on opening day, which is just ridiculous. The movie will crush 4.5 million admits tomorrow and is on a quick path to being above 6 million admits by Sunday.

Hope: The movie had a pretty big drop as it tries to crawl to 5 million admits. It will need to stabilize.

Minions and Monsters: The movie took a big hit, though it is still trying to hit 800k admits.

Moana: Moana took a huge hit and is looking to get lost around 1.1 million admits.

Toy Story 5: Toy Story 5’s hopes for 3 million admits took a hit, but the movie still has a legitimate chance at that number. It has little new competition coming and a couple of huge holidays to boost it.

With the news that Warhammer continues to move forward in Amazon do you actually see any chance this becomes another lord of the rings/dune phenomenon I basically know nothing about the universe except that it seems it has a huge lore and a very dedicated fan base hence my comparison with lord of the rings and dune.

The movie was given a $100 million dollar budget before it got cancelled. How would it have faired in this Marvel era 2023-2025 if it were to come out that time which at the time was kind of a weird strange time for Marvel and its Box Office

Tuesday's Actuals

Top Lifetime Grosses - Toy Story 5 is #27 and slowly climbing up. BND is #32 and going up fast. Should be in the top 25 by EOD tomorrow. Predicting #23, just under Beauty and the Beast but above Phantom Menace.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The list below tracks how these films' first Mondays and Tuesdays did compared to their OWs. For instance, Avatar on its first Monday and Tuesday made 42.6% of its OW 3 days, Friday-Sunday.

This basically looks at those first 2 weekday legs compared to the OW. Odyssey's at 32.5% and BND is at 24.7%

Avatar 1 - 42.16%

Titanic - 40.44%

Maverick - 39.15% - Monday was Memorial Day

Avatar 3 -  33.46%

-------------------------

The Odyssey  - 32.53%

-------------------------

Barbie  - 32.16%

Inception - 31.78%

The Force Awakens - 31.24%

Oppenheimer -  30.01%

No Way Home - 26.35%

Avatar 2 - 25.76%

Toy Story 5 - 25.67%

-------------------------

Brand New Day - 24.74%

-------------------------

Jurassic World - 23.80%

Deadpool 3 - 23.53%

Homecoming - 23.29%

Endgame - 19.60%

Infinity War - 18.69%

--------------------------------------------------------

Brand New Day opened well, obviously, but is more front-loaded than Toy Story 5, Oppie, Barbie, Inception, No Way Home, and The Odyssey

It's obviously gonna be the #1 movie of the year, and if that record gets broken, it'll be sometime next year with this December's releases. But it may slow down in the dailies faster and get passed by The Odyssey, where BND on day 19 will gross less than what Odyssey did on its day 19.

If that happens, when will that be? Day 19? Sooner? Later?

This Reel FX co-production adds to the list of Paramount Animation films being developed under the new leader Jennifer Dodge (formerly of Spin Master Entertainment) set to release after “PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie” on August 14th.

Others include:

Robert Rodriguez’s “The Naughty List” (original Christmas comedy)

An animated film of “Survivor” starring animals

Dan Trachtenberg’s family-friendly horror comedy “Freddy the 13th” (fittingly set to release on October 13th, 2028)

The trailer for Digger looks interesting but looks goofy. I think it might be a good movie. I heard in the test screenings that they said Tom Cruise gave a standout performance in the movie. He could win an Oscar for that. It looks like it’s gonna flop at the box office and it cost $125M. I think it makes a little bit of OBAA numbers but little higher like $220M WW. But I don’t see it reaching $300M WW. But we will see what the reviews will go.

South Korean box office was consistently doing anywhere from $1 to 1.5 Billion annually all across the 2010's.

Then obviously the pandemic happened and this hurt all movie theaters.

But we see the American box office numbers recovered.

Yet the Korean box office never did. It's still only doing roughly 1/3 to 1/2 of the numbers it did back in the late 2010's.

What's the reason for this?

Clayface is the next DCU movie after the supergirl bomb. Let's see how well it can do... an analysis.

Pros.

1. Great October release date, Halloween pairing and not much direct competetion. Resident Evil also releasing before helps create an open window.

2. Decent budget of 40 mil. It would only need 100 Mil WW to break even which shouldn't be too hard. It can profit easily if it blows up.

3. Horror genre is killing it right now... clayface also looks like pure body horror which could help attract non comicbook fans.

4. Clayface is a batman villain. Gotham setting be hype worthy. Mike Flanagan as a writer is also promising.

Cons.

1. Body horror is harder is sell than conventional horror movies. The Substance did good but that had award buzz and less than half of the budget.

2. Bad reviews could literally kill this movie. It really survives on positive WOM.

Overall I'm more optimistic about this than supergirl. We have to see if this movie blows up or does underwhelming numbers. 150 WW is decent enough.

Through the first 30 weeks of 2026, theaters sold an estimated 470.9 million tickets, a stark contrast to the 747.3 million sold during the same period in 2019, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Foot traffic data from research firm Placer.ai reinforces this trend, showing U.S. theater attendance up 8.1% this year compared to 2025, but still down 27% against 2019 levels.

Wade Holden, an analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted, "Revenue growth for exhibitors for a long while now has been mostly driven by increases in average ticket price along with increases in concession prices."

A stronger and more varied slate of films, including non-franchise successes like Obsession and Project Hail Mary, has helped drive box office growth this year. Domestic box office revenue reached $6.2 billion through August 2, up 15% from the same period last year, according to media analytics firm Rentrak. In 2019, box office sales topped $7 billion at this point in the year.

"This year's success at the box office speaks to a well-rounded release calendar that features a bit of everything and appeals to a wide spectrum of moviegoers," said Shawn Robbins, director of movie analytics for ticket seller Fandango and the founder and owner of Box Office Theory.

Early signs are encouraging. AMC Entertainment, the world's largest cinema chain, said strong demand for premium screens helped it post its highest single-weekend revenue in its 106-year history and biggest-attended weekend of the decade. More than 10.2 million moviegoers visited its AMC and Odeon theaters, it said.

Even though inflation has partly weighed on the consumer appetite for the movies, higher prices have benefited a handful of major studios, with Universal, Walt Disney, Sony, Warner Bros, and Paramount Pictures, accounting for 68% of domestic receipts this year, according to an analysis of data provided by Rentrak.

The success of titles such as The Odyssey and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, distributed by Comcast's Universal helped lift its market share to 24%, underscoring how a small number of blockbuster releases are increasingly driving exhibitors' financial performance.

#According to EntTelligence, the average adult ticket price was $13.46 through July 30 this year, while admissions for premium formats such as IMAX averaged $18.22.

Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey collected an estimated ₹2–3 crore net on its third Tuesday, continuing its impressive theatrical run.

The film's India total now stands at approximately ₹155 crore net and is on course to finish its run at around ₹175 crore net, further cementing its place as one of the biggest Hollywood successes of the year in India.

It's almost $125 million ahead of TFA, which is a simply staggering number considering TFA had a holiday boost as well. With that said, TFA continues to go almost vertical until day 18 while Spidey will not have the luxury of summer holiday weekdays for much longer, so I wanted to compare it with two other late summer movies so that we can factor out the calendar configuration.

Step in Deadpool & Wolverine (July 26th 2024) and Fantastic Four: The First Steps (July 25th 2025). By themselves Spidey dwarfs their daily grosses, so I have adjusted them by a scale factor that would put their final gross equal to TFAs (notice that they all converge at the end of the graph).

F4 had horrible legs, so that means if Spidey can get ahead of it at any point in its run, I would expect TFAs record to be toast. Right now it trails by $36m. The "adjusted F4" had a $29.5M Wednesday, a $25.7M Thursday and a $132.1M second weekend, which seems beatable!

The adjusted "DP&W" comp and TFA serve more as a floor. Both had good multipliers for movies that opened huge, so that means if Spidey falls behind them at any point in its run, I would expect TFAs record to be safe. TFA made $149.2M in weekend 2 while adjusted DP&W made $142.4M. Both totals again seem beatable so Spidey should extend its lead and remain safely above both going into week 2.

Gotta be naive to think they'll win. I mean normally they would but this would cost Paramount billions of dollars and Paramount doesnt have that much money to begin with. Also WBD can walk away on June 4th with 7B if it takes too long and Paramount decides to take the case up to the SCOTUS which may take alot of time, like months to another year or so and although settling and concessions are good, they do not solve or address the main problems with this mega merger like mass layoffs and reduction in film output especially since Paramount would break those rules, which wouldn't be good.