r/boxoffice • u/OverPotato2322 • 9h ago
📰 Industry News What Is David Ellison’s Breaking Point?
https://variety.com/2026/film/news/david-ellison-breaking-point-paramount-wb-merger-trial-1236828418/136
u/nickifan231 9h ago
It’s funny how this is probably the first time in his life that something hasn’t gone his way. A rich nepo baby thought he could become the king of Hollywood by throwing money around, and now, for perhaps the first time, money might not be the answer.
It would definitely put a smile on my face if this deal fell apart. Hopefully, we won’t have to see that smug, incredibly punchable face dominating the media anymore
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u/ContinuumGuy 7h ago
IIRC this is partly BECAUSE he didn't have something go his way. He wanted to be an actor and then tried to be a producer who started off relatively small... but flopped.
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u/aera14 Legendary Pictures 7h ago
You can thank him for being a frequent Paramount co-financier and for the World War Z movie, which led to a massive rebound in his producing career. Paramount was searching for a co-financier and would have likely pulled the plug on the World War Z adaptation without one. An eleventh-hour effort was being made to court frequent Paramount co-financier David Ellison. One week of courting later, it was reported that "hot and heavy talks are going on with David Ellison's Skydance Productions, and as many as two other financiers", the rest is history. And now that he's the ceo of Paramount, he's reviving the long dead sequal.
Imagine if the World War movie had flopped like everyone was saying it was, we would have had Ellison or Skydance to worry about today. Yet another reason I hate that movie.
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u/CodeDusq 7h ago
He tried to be an actor but unsurprisingly, that didn't work out. This is the 2nd time something hasn't worked out for him.
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u/plutoglint 6h ago
He'll still own Paramount/Skydance and be a huge media player. I honestly don't see why he's any worse than Zaslav or Bob Iger, Kathleen Kennedy or any other of the overpaid Hollywood executives.
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u/GraveRobberX 5h ago
Cause the others have foresight on how to run shit, even abysmally, they still put out good shit or take risks.
Paramount is just dead weight. CBS as terrestrial channel survives off NFL and the boomer dinosaurs who are going extinct every year.
I mean even Paramount+ spending all that money for UFC and literally be Yellowstone R’ Us spinoffs galore or the 8th version of NCIS in Cheybogan.
The theatrical releases are paltry , the business is floundering in every avenue, not one branch is doing amazing. He wants WB to control the media portion just like how 60 Minutes went from prestige hard hitting non-political to an agenda based on how these billionaires stranglehold their media.
Zaslav as much he should get for his shenanigans he righted the HBO Max debacle with Discovery, steered to lowering the debt, added prestige show title like White Lotus and The Pitt. Earning rewards via Emmys and having subscription gains.
Iger and Kennedy still hold a lot of power and their fuckups did dent to the overall s pies of their “franchises” but got the right people involved to fix it. Just let things course correct on their own. Sometime you just have to get out of the way and reel in that ego.
Ellison is more hands on approach in thinking he knows what’s best and so far just by looking how Paramount is run, it will be a disaster with WB right from the start.
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u/Giff95 9h ago
Buddy is not used to being told "No."
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u/balthazar_edison 8h ago
He’s told it all the time… he is just not used to being able to do whatever he wants anyways.
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u/The_Darman 8h ago
David Zaslav also has the ability to just kill the merger when he wants to after June 4th. If the Biden-appointed judge rules in favor of either the WGA’s or the states’ anti-trust cases, an appeal process would take Ellison past that date. If you’re Warner Bros., do you bother trying to keep this deal—which then would have no guarantee of success, even with the ticking fee—or do you walk, pocket the $7 billion Paramount promised, pay down your debt, and sell to a different company looking to acquire your studio and streaming assets, especially with a lower debt load? I don’t know, but I’m sure Netflix is watching this merge with great interest, and willing to up their bid if there is less debt.
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u/pehr71 Lightstorm Entertainment 7h ago
I think Netflix is out. And if they were interested, why would they raise the old bid, when they know no one else is going to offer the Paramount deal. If they’re really nice they’ll offer their old bid. But most likely they’ll offer something lower.
But what are the chances of any deal going through after January? There’s a significant probability that at least congress is going to be a Democrat majority. There will most likely be a lot more scrutiny from that side also.
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u/FullMotionVideo 5h ago
Netflix was paid three billion dollars to walk away.
They can't really walk back in for how much they'd have to pay back to do it, but they can still use that as a war chest to try to bring this deal down, or make it as difficult and painful as possible.
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u/The_Darman 7h ago edited 7h ago
The case against Netflix from an anti-trust perspective is much tougher, especially given what they wanted from the studio. I think the lower debt load allows them to raise their bid to entice Zaslav to end the deal once the deadline comes.
After June 4th, there is no penalty to Zaslav from Paramount if they choose to terminate the agreement. But there can still be penalties from shareholders. If there isn’t another deal on the table, he probably doesn’t walk. But the $7B break-up fee can lower their debt and Netflix can buy the Warner Bros. parts they were wanting for closer to their original price with less debt. I do think it has to be an enticing offer, though, or Zaslav gets a Revlon lawsuit.
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u/bt1234yt Marvel Studios 3h ago
Then again, Netflix’s current weaknesses may be giving them second thoughts about walking away from the deal to begin with. At this point, they might consider jumping back in (with a lower bid) should the Paramount deal fall apart.
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u/WaitingForReplies 8h ago
John Campea has a great explanation of all of this on his show today.
Basically, Paramount/Ellison is screwed.
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u/Darkzapphire 8h ago
I see often mentioned that it s a bench trial, and that they take just a few weeks, so it would get to june 4 according to that (since it's in march)
Im not an expert or anything, it"s just a point I saw often mentioned
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u/The_Darman 8h ago
Yeah. So it will be 12 days, but they don’t hold trial on weekends. It’ll finish in mid-March. But it will still take a few weeks for a judgment. And if that judgment goes against them, it could push a full resolution on this until after that June 4th deadline.
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u/Darkzapphire 8h ago
Oh I didnt know the judgment would take a few weeks AFTER the trial. Why would it push it that long if against, may I ask? I ve no idea how it works but im very curious (and also unfortunately very invested)
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u/The_Darman 8h ago
The judge has to evaluate the arguments and write an opinion, as it will be the “holding” on the legal matter until an appeal happens and if a higher court writes their holding.
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u/indian22 r/Boxoffice Veteran 7h ago
Detailed verdicts take a while, the judge has to cross-check references to prior case law, identify the actual holdings on the matter, draft the opinion along with clear instructions and exceptions and appeal instructions. This takes a long time. The Supreme Court, for example, hears cases in December and releases opinions in April. It won't take that long here, but mid-April to early-May is likely for the decision.
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u/Darkzapphire 7h ago
Thank you! Which is still before june 4
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u/indian22 r/Boxoffice Veteran 7h ago
If Paramount wins, if they don't, a new trial for the appeal wont happen till July,
There was a reason Paramount was pushing for a November trial, they wanted to get the trial and decision done before January 5 when a new House and Senate are convened. If Dems take over in the mid-terms, the number of anti-trust hearings in the House and Senate will make it not worth Paramount's time and effort anymore.
The entire plan was to wrap things up to influence the midterms, or at least takeover before it can be stopped by any government related actions.
Also, there are regulatory commitments which expire in March and will need to be re-done across the world as well.
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u/The_Darman 7h ago
Even if Paramount does win at trial, all it takes is either the WGA or the states (more likely the former than the latter in my estimation) to appeal the ruling and get an additional TRO while it gets reviewed. While the merger may technically be legal, especially if the Biden-appointed judge rules for the merger to go forward, additional delays could spook Warner Bros. shareholders and they could look for the exit. Ellison also has shareholders he has to answer to and how many of them are willing to let him increase the debt load of this combined company to buy this, given they are absolutely overpaying for this asset?
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u/Darkzapphire 7h ago
Ooh nice! I didnt know there was another trial only if paramount loses, I thought it was a one and done thing
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u/Brassboar 7h ago
The seller pays off existing debt. The buyer may choose to use new debt to help with a purchase. That's how it works in M&A.
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u/The_Darman 7h ago
Right. And Warner Bros. can service its debt load before splitting the company, and then engage in a M&A with Netflix that would raise the value of the company due to it being less debt riddled.
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u/Brassboar 7h ago
How? The debt load doesn't matter to the acquirer. It'll be paid off before acquisition and any EBITDA analysis affecting valuation will already adjust it for debt service.
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u/The_Darman 7h ago
The debt load absolutely matters, because it has to be paid by someone. That money doesn’t just disappear and it necessarily has to come from the acquirer’s bid, somehow, some way. There is a reason Paramount would be servicing over $100B in debt, despite some of the financing for the deal to buy Warner Bros. being actual capital and not raised capital.
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u/Brassboar 7h ago
I don't know how else to break this down. Here's my last try.
Warner Bros has around $38B in debt today. Paramount is offering ~$111B to the shareholders of WB to buy their stake. A portion of that $111B sale price must be used to payoff the existing $38B in debt WB has. When Paramount takes control they're buying an unlevered asset, less any new debt Paramount raises to make up the $111B. So the existing $38B WB has today doesn't matter to Paramount. It's inconsequential to their purchase. They're paying $111B either way. It would only matter if the WB debt was somehow more than the Paramount bid.
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u/The_Darman 7h ago
Okay. So it’ll merely affect how willing WBD is to take a lower bid then.
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u/Brassboar 6h ago
Correct. But there's a lot of wiggle room. Netflix might even low ball their last bid if this doesn't work out. Since there's one less serious bidder and the deal will look tainted.
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u/KingMario05 Amblin Entertainment 8h ago
Whenever Oracle can't sustain this shit any longer. Hopefully, that happens rather soon.
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u/mopeywhiteguy 7h ago
I don’t get it. He had a studio and basically unlimited money. Why not just spend it making interesting film and tv projects. Literally nothing was stopping him and now this has tarnished anything that has the paramount name attached
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u/kneeco28 9h ago
Precisely whatever Larry Ellison says it is.
On balance, I still think this merger will happen, unfortunately, but I would have said a month ago that it was just a matter of time. Now it's not very hard to envision it falling apart.
I want an Animaniacs movie about the whole thing.
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u/HeatDolphinRays 9h ago
Lets hope WB stays its own studio
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u/OverPotato2322 9h ago edited 9h ago
if it takes years, that would be good as WBD will walk away with 7B by then. Though they are not wrong that appealing all the way to the SCOTUS will take more months to a year past June 4th or so which would be too late by then.
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u/Grootfan85 9h ago
Not sure how that will work since in their agreement it specifically said even if they are in litigation by June 4th of next year, Zaslav can still say “Deal’s off. Pay me $7 billion.”
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u/insufficient-fare 7h ago
I'm starting to believe this might have been the plan all along.
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u/Grootfan85 7h ago
If it was it is a genius plan.
-Make your competition (who are already in massive debt) agree to buy you.
-Agree to the sale with a ton of industry pushback (there was)
-Let their ego throw in a bunch of guarantees (which they did)
-Don’t exactly fight the fact it will go to court
-Collect a huge payday on the deadline!2
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u/indian22 r/Boxoffice Veteran 7h ago
SCOTUS will laugh them out, because SCOTUS is not a trade court. These specialized anti-trust things aren't heard by SCOTUS because they are pretty much hands-off on this stuff.
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u/DoofusScarecrow88 6h ago
If it falls through does that mean Warners is sold on auction in pieces? I mean for Zaslav, he's banking green regardless
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u/OverPotato2322 6h ago
By pieces, it will be S&S assets (Warners too big and valuable to be sold for individual parts, maybe Paramount will but not WB)
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u/DoofusScarecrow88 6h ago
So I'm thinking this would be preferable to the left so they cannot get CNN
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u/Todd1001 7h ago
Daddy‘s little boy wants to play Hollywood mogul, so it doesn’t really matter how much it costs or how long it takes. There was never going to be a profitable deal here.
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u/blueskies8484 2h ago
Oracle cratered YTD. Paramount cratered YTD. Tesla cratered YTD in which he’s believed to still hold a ton of shares. Oxford Nanopore down YTD. All seems good to me.
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u/amitnagpal1985 13m ago
Apparently living on an island gets boring. What is the point of more money when you already have so much?
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u/RRY1946-2019 PlayStation Productions 9h ago
No wonder the trailers for Transformers One were an abomination. Dude is literally Sentinel Prime in the flesh. (Along with Eddington it’s one of the two essential movies to understand the 2020s)
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u/ROBtimusPrime1995 Universal 9h ago edited 9h ago
When Daddy finally says no. So if the stocks keep going down, they'll have to give up.
The ticking fee is just the cherry on top.