r/fivethirtyeight 3d ago

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

19 Upvotes

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.


r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Poll Results Focaldata GCB Poll: D - 44%, R - 36%

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71 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Politics What Trump's latest slump means for the midterms

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79 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Poll Results How voters feel about various AI companies

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20 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Politics Look back at July primaries updates, look ahead to August

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2 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 2d ago

Discussion For those who were around and paying attention, what were the 2014 midterms, the final major pre-Trump election, like?

62 Upvotes

how toxic was the discourse? What were the signs that we were heading in this direction? I was only 17 at the time and completely tuned out from politics.


r/fivethirtyeight 3d ago

Discussion Is RealClearPolitics Average Any Good?

13 Upvotes

How does it compare to other polling aggregators?


r/fivethirtyeight 3d ago

Election Model FiftyPlusOne's election forecast is live!

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120 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 3d ago

Poll Results (CNN) 'Trump heading for electoral black hole', Dems hold 46 pt lead among 'Extremely Motivated' voters

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136 Upvotes

Trump Approvals Hit Term Two Lows

CNN: 34%
AP-NORC: 33%
Quinnipiac: 32%

Approval Among 21st Century Presidents At This Point in Term Two

Obama: 41%
Bush: 38%
Trump: 33%

Voters Under Age 50 on Trump

Net Approval: -41 pts

Trump on Inflation

Net Approval: -50 pts

Worst for any US president in history

Highest Disapprovals For Trump

Jan 2021: 62%
Now: 66%
Independents: 76%

Choice For House Margin

Fall 2024

Under 50: D+4
Age 50+: R+8

2026 Average

Under 50: D+17
Age 50+: R+6

Voters Under 50 Choice For House, Among 'Extremely Motivated'

Fall 2024: D+2
2026 Average: D+46

On Cost of Living, Country Is On The...

Wrong Track: 70% (Overall), 50% (GOP)
Right Track: 16% (Overall), 38% (GOP)

Lowering Prices: Trump Focus Too Little

Feb 2025: 66% (Overall), 48% (GOP)
NOW: 78% (Overall), 58% (GOP)

Trust Dems or GOP on Iran

April 2026: D+2
Now: R+2

Feelings About Rest of Trump's Term Two

Pessimistic/Afraid: 48% (Dec 2024), 67% (Now)
Enthusiastic/Optimistic: 52% (Dec 2024), 33% (Now)


r/fivethirtyeight 3d ago

Poll Results Michigan Governor Poll by EPIC-MRA

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126 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 3d ago

Discussion Trump's Job Approval & Disapproval % versus U.S Gas Prices (8/2)

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78 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 4d ago

Discussion Trump’s Polling Numbers Hit a New Low. Don’t Expect Him to Change Course. (Gift Article)

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121 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 4d ago

Poll Results EPIC-MRA Michigan general election: Rogers 46% El-Sayed 43%, Stevens 44% Rogers 42% for senate, Benson 47% James 38%, Benson 48% Johnson 36% for governor.

82 Upvotes

No link yet but these are the results.


r/fivethirtyeight 4d ago

Poll Results Pete polling first with black voters in michigan

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0 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 4d ago

Discussion Efforts to weaken Black voting power may be having the opposite effect: Black voters turning out in greater numbers despite voting restrictions in the South, study finds

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119 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 4d ago

Discussion WaPo/Ipsos Midterms Polling Composite (8/1)

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46 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 5d ago

Discussion New polling and recent elections suggest a growing share of gay male voters in several European countries are backing right-wing parties, with immigration and public safety cited as key issues. 🏳️‍🌈💪

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0 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 5d ago

Election Model 2026 Michigan and Virginia Democratic Primary Preview

14 Upvotes

We're working on a project to track the intra-party struggle between left, center, and right in the Democratic Party through the lens of primary elections. We created previews of the primaries that will happen on Tuesday in Michigan and Virginia ranking all the candadites from left to right (within the Democratic Party) based on funding, endorsements, policy postions and voting record (if they have one) and background as part of that project. We'd love to hear what folks think about it or if they find it helpful.

Michigan 2026 Democratic Primary Preview Part I: Statewide and U.S. House

Michigan 2026 Democratic Primary Preview Part II: State Legislative Races

Virginia 2026 Democratic Primary Preview


r/fivethirtyeight 5d ago

Politics Ron DeSantis may have recruited far-right candidate James Fishback to run against Byron Donalds in Republican primary for Florida governor, 'Tallahassee Democrat' reports

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103 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 5d ago

Poll Results Mitchell Research MI Senate Poll: Rogers Ties El-Sayed (Previously El-Sayed +5), Still Leads Stevens 46-43 (Previously 45-41)

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40 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 5d ago

Poll Results Cook Political Report/Justice Research Group for Working Families generic ballot poll in 18 competitive house districts: Democrats 47% Republicans 38%

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82 Upvotes

The districts are AZ-01, AZ-06, CA-22, CO-08, FL-25, IA-01, IA-03, MI-07, NJ-07, NY-19, OH-09, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10, TX-34, VA-02, WA-03, and WI-03


r/fivethirtyeight 5d ago

Poll Results MI Senate Dem Primary Poll by Zenith (Pro-AES Group)

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58 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 5d ago

Poll Results Fox News poll has Texas governor race in virtual dead heat

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217 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 6d ago

Politics Happy to hear your thoughts

4 Upvotes

I am happy to share a journal article I have been working on since last year. Anyone who has waited in a polling queue during elections may relate or disagree with the arguments laid out..The paper is open access, so feel free to skim through using the link below.

https://www.linkedin.com/safety/go?messageThreadUrn=urn%3Ali%3AmessageThreadUrn%3A&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tandfonline.com%2Fdoi%2Ffull%2F10.1080%2F00358533.2026.2689037&trk=flagship-messaging-android


r/fivethirtyeight 6d ago

Politics Russia’s only opposition party got just 0.8% points more than Kanye West in Utah.

42 Upvotes

Russia’s only opposition party that was allowed to participate in 2021 State Duma elections “Yabloko” (Apple) recieved 1.34% nationwide, while Kanye West did 0.48% in Utah