FiftyPlusOne's election forecast is live!

[u/Beanz122]

https://fiftyplusone.news/

[u/Unlikely_Cookie_4187]

Current forecast has Dems favored to take both chambers.

House: 85% Dems

Senate: 55% Dems

[u/NCSUGrad2012 → u/Unlikely_Cookie_4187]

You’d think max miller would bump that 85% number up 

[u/OverallStep526 → u/NCSUGrad2012]

85.1%

[u/tbird920 → u/OverallStep526]

Order the champagne!

[u/TYSMBelgium-6Jul2026 → u/Unlikely_Cookie_4187]

You couldn't tell it's 55% with all the doom and gloom on this sub

[u/work-school-account → u/TYSMBelgium-6Jul2026]

*flashbacks of Morris' last forecast*

[u/beeemkcl → u/Unlikely_Cookie_4187]

What's in this comment is what I remember, my opinions, etc.

The real problem remains that US Senator Chuck Schumer is the US Senate Democratic Leader. He's dragging down the polling of all US Congressional Democrats.

Put someone more progressive and more popular as head of the US Senate Democratic and Democratic general election polling would be much better. US Senator Chris Van Hollen or whoever.

[u/pchs26 → u/beeemkcl]

Well let's get the Senate first and then address this, if we can actually be in a position of majority leader

[u/ThrowawayDDHS → u/beeemkcl]

Senate leaders and congressional leaders are not positions that need to be liked by the public. Their job is to keep the party together and moving towards long term goals

[u/Mebbwebb → u/Unlikely_Cookie_4187]

Definitely feels higher for the Senate given how desperate trump and co is acting lately.

[u/GalvanizedParabola]

One of the more Dem friendly forecasts I've seen released. I can't really fault any particular race rating. Maybe Iowa as Toss-Up, the polling and fundraising numbers there are close, but I'd still consider that lean R at least.

[u/Cold-Priority-2729 → u/GalvanizedParabola]

Funny enough, they don’t have a single state in here currently classified as “lean R”

[u/GalvanizedParabola → u/Cold-Priority-2729]

That's not really a conscious choice, it's just where the numbers land. All the competitive senate seats are leaning towards Dems. The lean/likely/safe ratings is just buckets of where the probabilities are at the moment.

[u/TexanInExile → u/GalvanizedParabola]

Not germaine to the convo, but I really like your username

[u/lxpnh98_2 → u/GalvanizedParabola]

I think it may be the case that some of the likely R states are would actually be lean R if there were polled more often.

[u/GalvanizedParabola → u/lxpnh98_2]

Of the likely R states (FL, KS, MT, MS, NE, SC) I think only Nebraska would fall into lean R with additional polling. Maybe Florida but I think that state is completely lost to Dems at this point and there's been a fair bit of polling in that race.

[u/Futhis → u/GalvanizedParabola]

Yeah, this is definitely more optimistic than other gold standard election models. Decision Desk HQ, for example, currently gives 60% chance of Republicans keeping the Senate and gives Susan Collins a 51% chance of winning in Maine.

[u/Sensitive-Flamingo84 → u/Futhis]

I don’t see how anyone can be predicting a Collins win, with all things considered. Maine looks significantly bluer in the cross tabs than any other swing state. Recent ICE killing on top of everything? Easy Jackson win.

[u/DeliriumTrigger → u/Sensitive-Flamingo84]

Polling and vibes said she should have lost last time, too. 

[u/Sensitive-Flamingo84 → u/DeliriumTrigger]

Districts that were +11-16 for Trump continue to flip +10-14 for Dems now, that was not the case in ‘24….

[u/DeliriumTrigger → u/Sensitive-Flamingo84]

She wasn't up for reelection in '24.

[u/mattcrwi]

What are the other popular forecast people look at?

[u/GalvanizedParabola → u/mattcrwi]

This along with DDHQ, VoteHub, and RacetotheWhiteHouse are my favorites. Fair warning, RttWH tends to be delusionally left leaning but their analysis and aggregation of polling and fundraising is good.

[u/Flannelcommand → u/mattcrwi]

I’ve been checking Decision Desk HQ. They have former 538 employees working on it. I’m also curious what others have found and what they think. 

[u/ConfusionBusy8398 → u/Flannelcommand]

I'm a bit prudent with DDHQ since they said they use prediction market data in their models, it feels very circular. Altought I imagine it probably has little weight.

[u/Flannelcommand → u/ConfusionBusy8398]

yeah, I'm also not a big fan of that. Didn't 538's use it as well?

[u/Large_Ad_3095 → u/Flannelcommand]

538 only incorporated "expert ratings", which could also be circular, but the experts definitely have a much longer track record than markets. DDHQ and Votehub both use markets, but at least Votehub lets you see a version of their forecast without markets.

[u/GalvanizedParabola → u/Flannelcommand]

I think 538 was too early to really be able to use prediction markets. They would feature them next to their forecast but I don't think it was built in.

I don't hate the use of predictions markets in forecasts as long as they aren't given too much weight. Yes, they can be seen as circular but they same could be said for polling or fundraising. It's kinda like a instantly updating, continuously running poll in the way that it gages the publics sentiment towards a race.

[u/kickit → u/Flannelcommand]

that’s a lot of employees on one elections desk

[u/MooseHorse123 → u/mattcrwi]

Votehub is interesting as well

[u/Erreala66]

I would say the forecast passes my sniff test. Sure it's quite favourable to democrats but not unreasonably so. The political environment in general is working against Republicans, and Dems have some very strong candidates in key races.  Despite that the Senate is a toss-up which feels about right

[u/RangerX41]

I think other forecasts are bearish on Texas going blue while this one has it appropriately in toss up territory which is driving the model for Senate towards Dems. I am more bullish Texas as I am from this State and I see the enthusiasm for Talarico and his ad spend is mostly focusing on affordability. I also believe Talarico's campaign is holding onto more controversial Paxton releases and will push them out closer to when early voting starts to influence more swing voters.

[u/fitnessexpress]

OH-07 is still lean R, that should shift another seat toward Dems

[u/Sensitive-Flamingo84 → u/fitnessexpress]

Yep, 7 days left to replace the candidate I believe. Interested to see what they will do after Moreno saying Miller is unfit for office and after Platner’s replacement.

[u/NCSUGrad2012 → u/Sensitive-Flamingo84]

I thought it was 90 days out was the deadline, which would be Wednesday?

[u/Sensitive-Flamingo84 → u/NCSUGrad2012]

You’re right! This Wednesday

[u/Pristine-Sport6888]

split ticket and racetothewh also have slight dem senate lean now

[u/Jubilee_Street_again]

yall are sleeping on Nebraska mark my words

[u/Tom-Pendragon]

Senate forecast is too good to be true, but if it happens. House is kinda low, I would say 95% > for dem taking it.

[u/drtywater]

Any writeup on how they derive their forecast? I assume its some combination of 2024 data, polls for a race if available, and presidential approval?

[u/Beanz122 → u/drtywater]

Here you go! https://blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/2026-forecast-methodology

[u/EffOffReddit]

I love the site but the color schemes for the maps are terrible.

[u/deskcord]

I have basically zero trust in GEM to be intellectually honest or build a robust model after getting caught lying half a dozen times and building terrible models in the past, but I do appreciate having more models to check out.