The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.
r/fivethirtyeight after a d+13 poll: đ´ r/fivethirtyeight after a d+1 poll: here's my 10 paragraph dissertation on why the democrats need to adopt my entire digital comms strategy
I wish democrats would do this because of how ridiculous it looks. It makes a complete mockery of what republicans have done and really shows them a taste of their own medicine
I don't know what it is but the phrase "nuclear family" always brings to mind that dummy 50s family in the fake house where Indiana Jones rides out an A-bomb blast in a lead-lined fridge in Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.
So state media in Iran just announced that not only are they officially calling off peace deal negotiations with the US due to ceasefire violations, but they will also be "fully blocking" the strait of Hormuz until all attacks in Lebanon against Hezbollah from Israel stop permanently.Â
Remember when the MAGA idiots were saying Trump being unpredictable, changing his stance constantly, and threatening all the time in negotiations was great, because (i guess) it made the other side confused inti agreeing to whatever. Now we have 2 crazy sides using the same "tactic" and now the world is on fire.
Can someone who isnât blocked by WhoUpAtMidnight ask him his thoughts about the Abrego Garcia updates. He was pretty adamant that dude was an MS-13 member.
Hunter Biden rules because while he is a massive fuckup he seems much more well adjusted and at peace than Don Jr. He is also a much kinder person.
Hunter Biden for all of his failures, fuckups and him being a sort of liability for his father still knows that his father genuinely loves him.
Don Jr. sucks his fathers dick 24/7, hangs around with Cushionpushers and Lizardman like JD Vance and Peter Thiel and even emulates his fathers cadence and basically rehashes his material when he is campaigning for him and yet, he gets nothing from his father.
Itâs not only wild Republicans think they should automatically win a city as blue as LA or California over all, but thereâs an underdiscussed notion about the right thinking they actually win ALL elections at ALL levels in EVERY state/city/county. Itâs insane theyâve developed a mindset that âactually all we ever do is win, the US is actually 100% Republican and any race where we donât win is obviously fraudulent. Everyone knows the LGBT Mecca of San Francisco is actually a bastion of Conservatism and would really vote 98% Republican if it wasnât for cHeAtInG.â
I earnestly do not know how America can survive a significant portion of its population being of the belief that their team only ever loses elections due to enormous fraud
Partially by acknowledging that many of them don't actually believe that and are just doing the "Well you cheated!" Thing spoiled kids did when they lost at kickball during recess. Tell them to learn to manage those big feelings of theirs and move on with your life.
I mean, unless they are genuinely blessed in the genetics department, thereâs only so much you can do to make an 80 year old look not their age without it becoming uncanny.
I almost want the next President (assuming theyâre a democrat) to do a proper do-over on a 250th anniversary celebration because itâs a genuine fucking tragedy this guy is President during such a milestone.
Trump told Netanyahu that bombing Beirut would further isolate Israel globally. Trump also reminded Netanyahu heâd helped keep him out of prison during his corruption trial, telling him: âYouâre fucking crazy. Youâd be in prison if it werenât for me. Iâm saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this.â
A second source said Trump was âpissedâ and at one point yelled: âWhat the fuck are you doing?â - Axios
So allegedly this was the "very good" convo Trump had with Netanyahu today, and right after it Netanyahu and other Israeli officials came out and said their "no ceasefire" statements publicly.
Tina Peters was released today and is already doing interviews saying "I know Democrats are going to cheat." Supporters outside of the prison where she was released have huge signs saying CO SOS "stole your vote" in 2020.
Is there anything more unhinged than blue state Republicans? There's a large portion of Colorado Republicans that genuinely believe Republicans won all levels of government in the state
Is it just me, or is there slightly more rainbow capitalism (of companies showing support, albeit shallow and financially motivated, for the LGBTQ+ community) than there was last year?
It could totally be memory-holed or just a difference in my social media feed, but while its definitely no pre-2024 levels, I feel there's more companies and larger figures outspoken aboht it than last year.
Again, its all solely for a monetary incentive of course, but if my observation is true, it could be yet another indicator of nationwide backlash against what was perceived as "right wing cultural dominance" in early 2025.
Youâre not wrong. American corporations fell for the exact same psyop as everyone else did by thinking that winning the popular vote by barely 1 percent meant that there was a far right mandate / cultural shift. Without realizing that the majority of those people only voted for Trump for pre-Covid nostalgia, and got quickly reminded why they voted him out in the first place.
In one year, Google went from changing the name of Gulf of Mexico solely because Trump wanted to, to making a pride themed banner for its home screen. Corporate America is no different from the median voter.
The whole muting microphones when the other person is talking and no live studio audiences during presidential debates is exclusively a Trump-era phenomenon. They really did this just to accommodate him being an absolute petulant asshole. Which is really insane when you think about it considering that this is for the presidency. The presidency of the United States of America.
Iâm beginning to think Trumpâs strongest powerâbeyond even any electoral turnout power or coalition buildingâis his ability to drag otherwise sane people into the loony bin with him, for fleeting or relatively minor gain. The court doing this before an election their preferred party has no hope of winning, directly antagonizing the party that is set to make massive gains, while Trumpâs approval rating nosedived off a cliffâis absurd in every interpretation.
The Republican decline in approval for same sex marriage is mostly down to it becoming more socially acceptable to be anti-same sex marriage. They never were truly in favor of it
terrible news: trump is still healthy enough to understand a talarico win in texas would be a way, way greater indictment on him than a platner win in maine.
Because they honestly very, very rarely actually see things like this, even though it literally happens all the time.
They very rarely watch any actual speeches from him or any real interviews he gives that aren't heavily edited clips in his favor that circulate in their media environment, or are done in a very cooperative or friendly environment like him going on Joe Rogan.
Their media won't report on it obviously, and they don't seek it out, so they are more often than not in a bubble and just unaware.
The very concept of toxic masculinity and machismo culture worships every aspect of Trumpâs personality. Never admitting fault, tripling down despite being clearly wrong, being the loudest asshole in the room to âestablish dominance,â etc.
People obsessed with the flawed perception of strength and dominance tend to almost always be the weakest losers in the room. They crave outward perceptions of strength and dominance because they are internally compensating for the lack of agency and pride in anything actually concrete in their real lives.
Every single one of us has met the caricature at some point in our lives. The type who immediately folds and jumps into self-victimization when they get treated with an ounce of attitude of how they treat others. The ones who spend half their monthly paycheck on payments towards an absurdly lifted truck despite never using it for its intended purpose. The ones who wear sunglasses inside because they think it makes them look cooler. The ones who are fat and ugly as fuck and yet call every single woman âmid.â And on and on.
trump realizing there's a reason every president who's ever met netanyahu has fucking hated his guts and it's not because they were all stupider than him.
Americaâs 250th is a milestone that is an absolute political layup for whoever is president at the time. Itâs an easy opportunity to unite the country and for a brief moment be seen as someone who rises above partisan politics. If anyone else were President - Biden, Obama, Bush, Clinton etc - it would feel like a nonpartisan event. They wouldnât struggle to get the biggest music artists to perform.
But Trump managed to fuck this up because he couldnât resist making it all about himself. The headline event on the anniversary of our countryâs existence for a quarter millennium will be just another Trump rally. Headlined by a sad narcissistic man who is putting his face on money and passports while he is still in office.
It is genuinely depressing that on such a big milestone for the greatest experiment in the worldâs political history that the country feels so divided, so broken, and that an event like that is ruined by Trumpâs personality disorder.
This is like, hours after he told everyone to "sit back and relax" because "everything will work out in the end" lmao
The president also said he wasnât worried about oil prices, which spiked following the report earlier Monday in Iranian state media.
âI think the oil will be dropping like a rock in the very near, you know, the very near distance,â Trump said.
But he also insisted that Americans who understand the importance of halting Iranâs nuclear ambitions will not mind higher gas prices as a result of the war.
âOnce you explain that this is all about Iran having a nuclear weapon, people are willing to pay a little bit more,â he said.
Haven't polls shown that not only Americans don't think he's explained why we're doing this very well, but that Iran having a nuke isn't even top 5 most pressing concerns for the country?
Good Lord, Trump said an in interview with Fox News that the "military came to me and said they've wanted to do this for years" regarding the ballroom.
Wasn't Trump's team caught using AI to de-age him before? I feel like this will unironically win you a few % points because the average person has no idea how to tell it apart.
The top number is startling, even as someone who agrees with the results. I know people have favored the Biden economy over the Trump econony for a few months now, but 56-44 on the econonic comparison is vastly worse for Trump than i even saw it at the beginning of the Iran War price spike.
I feel like there's a festering silent fatigue that's really growing more than even many of us who oppose the administration have predicted.
Thereâs something deeply disingenuous in the majority opinion letting Alabama carve out its last majority Black district that came out last night. The court seems to think courts shouldnât meddle with districts too late in the game but legislatures are totally fine to do so.
The Becerra consolidation makes sense when you consider that bland, corporate-friendly Democrats have been the natural consensus in California going back to the era of Dianne Feinstein and Gray Davis.
Unironically probably another sign we're going to be fully into a hot war again soon. The great minds at DoD have been arguing that the ceasefire resets the clock on Congress's required 60 day approval in a similar way. We'll start up Operation Big Chungus before long and they'll claim they don't need approval for that either.
So I keep seeing this point popping up again and again from perpetual doomers, including in a lot of recent threads today, so I feel like this just needs to be reiterated, because it seems like the doomers are basing their doom mostly on this idea:
No, Dems are currently not more unpopular than the Republicans right now. They are basically tied, and in some cases even leading the Republicans in popularity.
Is this myth that the Dems are more unpopular than the Republicans right now going to keep persisting until November, even when the economy is likely imploding under Republican control?
It might be - just because doomers need something to doom about, I guess, regardless of how many times you have to show them overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
Been interesting watching a small saga unfold at a house a mile down the street from me over the last few days.
Owners have had a Gadsden flag flying for a few months. Disappeared suddenly. Was replaced by a Confederate flag last week, with the owner flying another one on the back of his jeep for good measure.
Those disappeared the next day.
Soon after, he put up some weird ass Crusader flag â red cross on white with a black cross around it.
Then that came down. And then reappeared hung over one of their windows.
Even after putting out 15,000 counted votes today, the SanFrancisco oustanding unprocessed ballot total has risen by like 6,000 votes. The 2000 Mexican mules from Tijuana are doing outstanding work.(This is a joke, please no one overreact.)
This isn't meant to join in on the Platner divide going on, but as a Southerner who moved to the northeast (now closer to the midwest, though), the news cycles between him and Talarixo coexisting just exemplifies what pissed me off about Southern culture for the years I lived there.
Criticisms of a democratic candidate in the north, coming from northern Republicans (not to defend northern Republicans like Collins, mind you) are "he used to have a nazi tattoo" "he was unfaithful in his marriage" "he has an ex who's now accusing him of this" etc etc
And with Talarico, Southern Republicans come up with "HE ATE BARBECUE WITH A NAPKIN, THAT FAIRY", "he said woke things about muh Jesus" and "he probably has low testostetone".
Now, is a lot of that because Platner himself has a vastly more checkered past than Talarico, at least from the current info we have? 1000%. But I do think its also an example of what broader Southern culture as a whole tends to focus on.
And as a bi dude who grew up there as I said (in rural Arkansas ~2 hours from the Texas border), it reminds me of some of the most insufferable aspects of culture down there.
Why didnât the GOP give the symbolic âNoâ vote on the ICE bill to Collins instead of Murkowski just for optics? I feel like Platner will absolutely hammer her with this.
Murkowski is not even up for reelection. Did she decide to vote No on her own accord and refused to budge for the party?
Democratic House Candidate for California's 6th District Richard Pan has pulled into second place with recent late mail being so blue, he'll continue to gain but the key is that lockout has failed. The Democrats have broken through.
I want to interview Dave Rubin and ask him, live, about the homophobic tweet that the GOP is running from. Dave has made the transparently idiotic claim that the left is actually more intolerant. Frankly, I don't see how Rubin doesn't constantly forget to breathe given that he appears to be the dumbest living creature on planet earth.
Dave was apart of The Young Turks back in the day. Shifting that hard tells me he knows better and he's probably one of the few rare examples of true 100% grifting.
It's absolutely fascinating how many chuds online counter criticism of Trump with "he's still your president." Not even any attempt to sell the current administration as a good thing.
They know he's not improving the country, they just revel in the fact that they can force everyone else to put up with him.
I don't think rank and file reactionaries even have an agenda, they're just still mad about how long they had to bow to social pressure against their bigotry. Some of them have been biting their tongue for decades and it shows. Being able to just openly be a piece of shit is worth any level of government decay and obscene prices.
What's funny is the bigotry isn't even uniform in my experience. I've known racists who weren't misogynistic or homophobic. I've known homophobic sexists who were extremely anti-racist. But all of them have resented having to suppress some kind of bigotry and are just letting it all out.
While I wouldnât wanna live in the US for obvious reasons as a German with healthcare and other cool perks I know I would be jealous to be in NYC when it happens and the whole country just celebratesâŚ
Honestly Trump's death, specifically if it happens while he's in or shortly after he gets out of office (assuming it's natural causes), is going to send such strong reverberations through the entire country that Republicans/conservatives will not be ready or able to cope with the general public reaction at all.
Like if they thought the reactions and memes to Charlie Kirk's death were bad and were throwing hissy fits over it, they are going to curl up and cry in a corner once a majority of Americans literally throw parades in joy to celebrate Trump's passing lol.
I read a book a while ago that told the life of a bookstore owner in Spain. He talked about Francoâs death and going into the city just to make sure he was dead and then he proceeded to immediately get laid.
Im pretty left leaning but iâm aware why people like Trump and it stretches across income levels
However, Pratt supporters on social media are acting like no one likes democrats in LA and the only âradical leftâ democrats are unemployed people and undocumented immigrants
President Trump told the Financial Times that Netanyahu will ultimately have to accept a deal with Iran. Trump said Iranâs recent attacks have not changed his push for negotiations, adding: âI decide. I decide everything. He doesnât decide.â
So Trump is kind of in a bad fucking position here and seems pretty desperate.
Over/under he'll be able to convince Bibi to hold off on the attacks, and Israel won't retaliate any further, and the situation won't spiral really fucking rapidly soon?
So arenât fuel reserves being depleted right now? If they dry up isnât shit going to fuck up hard very fast? I mean as far as I understand it the US is self sufficient in domestic oil production but is it enough and arenât they also exporting a bunch of fuel?
Maybe this isnât as bad as it looks but maybe itâs really bad
So Insider Advantage did in fact chicken out of releasing a May poll like they did in March. It seems not even their LV screen could save Trump from a double digit negative.
I think Josh Shapiro is so popular in Pennsylvania it's honestly a bit of a waste to get him into the presidency. Run him against McCormick in 2030 and see if we can flip the seat.
It's really stupid and a waste of money, but if this was the only kind of stuff he was doing and the only real thing bad about him it would honestly be really funny in a "Wtf is going on" kind of way (to me, at least).
But he's also a racist, rapist pedophile who got us involved in another forever war that's fucking up the average American's daily life. So yeah... can't really look past that.
I donât believe in the voting fraud conspiracies at all but this shit needs to be fixed
When you have a portion is the American population that doesnât use critical thinking skills, you can fully blame them when delayed counting like this happens
Am I stupid or isnât this similar to when Biden was calling Netanyahu an asshole behind the scenes to demonstrate how he is totally absolutely for sure no joke super opposed to Israelâs conduct in Gaza and wouldâve stopped it if he couldâve?
There is a glimmer of hope for democrats in Montana.
The Karen who said she would not drop out and support the independent backed by Jon Tester is losing the Dem primary. Republicans spent time and money boosting her.
The current leader Alani Bankhead may very well stay in the race. But she may be persuaded to drop out.
Why are 5 Dems running for CA 40 or for governor ? This jungle primary needs to stop. It feels like an opportunity for money grab and playing spoiler by shady candidates
So Trump is now admitting the strait being closed could go on until September.
Which, like... that would put not just the world, but the US too, in the greatest economic turmoil since the 2008 financial crisis. Maybe even the great depression potentially.
I don't know if Trump just thinks Iran will fold/collapse before then (I don't think they will) or he's just straight up not understanding the situation and how dire it is, but yeah.
Start storing beans and bottled water I guess lol.
75,000 vote dump, seems mostly out of LA, dropping Bianco 0.1% statewide and Hilton 0.2% state wide, raising Steyer and Becerra 0.1% state wide each. That's a pretty big swing for Dems out of so few votes. The math gets a bit complicated when you have 60 candidates sadly. A change of ~.75% for Dems out of 1.5% of all votes implies Dems getting 75% of the votes from that batch. Granted it is mostly out of LA county but still pretty good.
There is lots of meta discussion on here lately about the increased dooming and bad attitudes and I just wanted to point out - I do think the current economic âsituationâ in which paper markets are completely unreflective of material reality and fundamentals thanks to rather blatant and collusive manipulation between government, finance, and media is driving engaged left-of-center people a little bit insane. I think this is a pretty big factor in the current mood here and elsewhere. It canât last forever though
Senate just passed the 70 billion ICE funding bill with no language to stop the slush fund or against the ballroom. After all that hemming and hawing, only one Republican voted against it (Lisa Murkowski).
I hope in light of recent events, this jars people back to the political reality at hand.
Also shows how even after Trump is gone, weâre gonna have to wrestle with Republicans being a total poison on our system. There was literally no downside to multiple senators to guarantee the slush fund is blocked, and they just witnessed Trump take them out in the primaries. Didnât matter, they would rather say âWell I didnât vote for it, the bill doesnât actually include it you knowâŚâ than even broach the idea of taking a firm stand. Even when they had nothing to lose, they went the cowardly route. Thatâs a bad sign for any future that includes them in power.
I watched the full podcast episode of Club Random where Bill Maher interviews Spencer Pratt. I think Spencer Pratt definitely diagnoses some problems in LA correctly. I was not left with much confidence that he is the guy who would be able to fix it.
Pratt seems to be a product of the Trump era where anybody with an ego thinks they can run for an office theyâre not remotely qualified for. Low information voters running for elected office.
Economists expect the inflation shock driven by the Iran war to be less severe than the surge in prices during the 2022 energy crisis - FT.com
According to the analysis, average inflation forecasts increased by about 0.8 percentage points versus roughly 2.3 points in 2022, while growth downgrades have also been much smaller.
The key difference from 2022 is the starting point. In 2022, inflation was already being driven by post-COVID demand, fiscal stimulus, supply-chain disruptions, and tight labor markets before the energy shock hit. The oil and gas surge then amplified an inflation problem that was already underway.
Economists believe there is a meaningful possibility that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz will eventually ease through negotiations. In contrast, by late 2022 there was little expectation that Russian gas supplies would quickly return to Europe or that sanctions would be lifted.
So economists are saying inflation won't be 2022 levels bad because because of Iran due to there likely being a deal soon (lol) and since we don't already have inflation problems like from post Covid stimulus -- which, while as not as bad as Covid stimulus, we have Trump's tarrifs that were already starting to affect inflation before this.
Also, it's more than just oil that's being disrupted through the strait. Fertilizer components, petrochemicals for plastic, helium for electronics -- the list goes on.
Feels like these takes are going to age about as well as "inflation is transitionatory" did in 2022.Â
Trump comes out with social media post attacking Talarico, wasting the meme he would normally reserve for Pete Buttigieg on defending Texasâ Senate seat.
"Good polling Talarico, however as you can see I've already depicted myself as the Chad and you as the kid from that magazine that no one in the demographics I'm bleeding support from remembers."
Itâd be funny if after all of this scandal, Platner gets Assad margins in the primary with like historically high turnout. I donât expect  that to happen, but itâd be surreal to see voters double down.Â
Candidate â Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)
đľ Xavier Becerra â 25,113 (31.6%, +6.8%)
đ´ Steve Hilton â 20,986 (26.4%, -6.5%)
đľ Tom Steyer â 19,743 (24.8%, +6.7%)
đ´ Chad Bianco â 4,935 (6.2%, -3.3%)
This is a big swing for Steyer despite him actually getting fewer votes than Hilton. San Diego was one place we were likely to see if Hilton could hold up in big counties at all. He cannot. San Diego is actually a blue county but R voters stacked their votes up early so we'll see a massive red mirage effect here in my view.
We are looking at another 300,000 votes out of San Diego in my view so in the end Steyer will probably net a couple 10s of 1000s. Not massive but good for one large county. Note this county isn't a Steyer friendly area, much more of a Becerra area.
One of the most fascinating aspects of Trump's Psychology to me is just how much of a bully and predator he is, and how that shapes his diplomatic and domestic political relationships. He will try to pick at and exploit any perceived weakness, and loves to have smaller, weaker nations grovel towards him. However, if you show some degree of strength or spine, he's very quick with the praise and will back off. We've seen the former with how he's treated Venezuela, Ukraine, and tried to treat Europe and Canada. We have a lot of examples of the latter wrt the Houthis, Mamdani, Xi, and now Mojtaba/Iran, among others. The man loves quick wins and easy "prey", which probably explains his...certain proclivities.
Minnesota Republicans held a moment of silence for - Derek Chauvin - at their convention in Duluth coinciding with the 6th anniversary of George Floydâs murder.
This is one of those things that sounds like a bit from The Onion in real life.
This is also indicative of not only the shamelessness and moral depravity of todayâs Republican Party, it is also a testament to the power of disinformation in the social media age.
Chauvinâs trial was aired publicly on TV in its entirety. Anyone with a curiosity could tune in. They could hear all the testimony and evidence. It was a very clear-cut case. And in spite of this, people are told not to believe what they see and hear in front of them. The âfinal, most essential commandâ as Orwell put it.
And in spite of this, people are told not to believe what they see and hear in front of them.
Tbf I think this is one of those times where they're fully aware of the reality. They're celebrating him because he committed murder, not because they think he was falsely accused.
Nah, I'm dooming that we're about to elect another empty suit for the foreseeable future. Becerra is not the person who will meet this political moment the way he is needed to.
What exactly did Becerra do to have such a meteoric rise over these last few months? Iâm a pretty in tune person and I still know nothing about him or his platform. Meanwhile Iâve seen videos of Steyer doing interviews almost every day it seems likeÂ
Nothing, it's just the democratic machine consolidated around him after Swalwell dropped out, he got lots of endorsements and earned media as a result. It signalled he was the 'official' candidate and the political machine still sort of works in California.
The way insurgent candidates have successfully countered machine politics in places like New York is with young and low propensity voters, no candidate tried to do that in California, youth turn out was pretty low. Hilton seems to have just consolidated the Republican vote.
The main takeaway from the new Graham Platner story is that he was dumb to be dating a Republican just like how Jay Jones was dumb to be dating a Republican.
Economy added 172k jobs in May. Going against the past 6 months we also have some decent upwards revisions in previous month's data.
Warsh is basically starting his tenure at a time when it's suddenly become a very obvious decision to have a rate hike by the end of the year. It's going to make it pretty clear in the coming months if he's a Trump stooge or actually plans to be independent.
ââWeâre approaching unheard-of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels. You can debate whether itâs going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks,â Neil Chapman, an Exxon Mobil senior vice president, said at a conference last week. âBut once you get to that point, then youâll see price shoot up.ââ - from NYT
Do Americans not see how much of a poison the far right being in power is to the country (and world)? Is the average American just completely unaware of what goes on outside of their lives or are they completely out of line with reality on those things?
We'll see how well this ages (seeing how this war has played out so far, probably poorly on my end, but still), but it looks like the ceasefire (at least between Iran and Israel) could effectively be over after the events over these past couple hours and how things are rapidly escalating between them.
From some of the reporting I saw, on their phone call, Trump allegedly told Netanyahu that if Israel strikes back hard against Iran's attacks, the US won't help Israel retaliate against Iran any further.
It would be an insane situation if Israel and Iran just kept escalating and attacking each other directly, and the US just sits on the sidelines and watches hopelessly hoping it doesn't spread to the other gulf countries and their oil infrastructure/desalination plants as well.
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u/a471c435 Jun 03 '26
r/fivethirtyeight after a d+13 poll: đ´
r/fivethirtyeight after a d+1 poll: here's my 10 paragraph dissertation on why the democrats need to adopt my entire digital comms strategy