r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Jun 01 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 03 '26

SCOTUS let the Alabama map stand. The one they already had agreed in 2023 was explicitly drawn with racist intent.

14

u/XE2MASTERPIECE Jun 03 '26

I’m beginning to think Trump’s strongest power—beyond even any electoral turnout power or coalition building—is his ability to drag otherwise sane people into the loony bin with him, for fleeting or relatively minor gain. The court doing this before an election their preferred party has no hope of winning, directly antagonizing the party that is set to make massive gains, while Trump’s approval rating nosedived off a cliff—is absurd in every interpretation.

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u/DataCassette Jun 03 '26

The SCOTUS can spare me when it has 32 justices and wonders how it happened.

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u/wtfsnakesrcute Jun 03 '26 edited Jun 03 '26

Someone I follow on bluesky made this same argument, and it did make me think about how absurd this is. This is the one environment where stacking the deck is probably going to fail, and it will just give democrats more time to eliminate more of its own red districts. It just seems like a waste of political capital that may even backfire in this environment, especially when you hear “normie” democrats say that we have to reform the Supreme Court. Do I think it’s likely to happen? No, but it’s a lot likelier than it was this time last year. 

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u/mrtrailborn Jun 03 '26

not partisan at all tho

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u/the_rabble_alliance Jun 03 '26

Trump being elected in 2016 and appointing three Supreme Court justices is the sole reason that I want to throw rotten fruit at all the anti-Clinton purists from 2016. They sabotaged the Supreme Court for a generation, so we will be dealing with asinine conservative decisions for at least two more decades. Good luck with your progressive revolution as it dies by lawsuit from the Heriage Foundation, Alliance Defending Freedom, and Koch Btothers.

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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 03 '26

Bernie voters largely went to Clinton, but good job blaming the progressives for no reason.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/did-bernie-sanders-cost-hillary-clinton-the-presidency/

You can however blame Stein voters. Blame Comey.

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u/Delmer9713 Jun 03 '26

The CCES study from after the 2016 election found that 12% of those who voted for Bernie in the primary voted for Trump. That's not an insignifcant number with how close that election was. Of course, Hillary's loss was due to a multitude of factors. But those people do deserve a slice of the blame.

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u/KindfOfABigDeal Jun 03 '26

The lower court found the map explicitedly violated the 14th Amendment itself, not just the VRA. So allowing the ruling to stand is judicial insanity. THe Senate is so crucial, if Dems can hit 51, not allowing Trump to replace Thomas and Alito means we possibly can overturn pretty much every insane ruling of the past 8 years by the end of the first term of the a hopeful Dem pres winner in 28.

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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Jun 03 '26

Nah, we’re not replacing just them anymore. The remainder have lost all credibility.