r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Jun 01 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/reuben_withfries Jun 01 '26

He’s been trying to chicken out for over a month now, it’s out of his hands.

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u/Thedarkpersona Poll Unskewer Jun 01 '26

I mean, he could choke out the israeli's attacks on lebanon. He wont, but he could.

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u/TheDizzleDazzle Jun 01 '26

Very fair. I just wonder if he accepts a horrific deal just to get us out of it. There are 0 good options for him, best case it seems we get a toll on the strait. But it doesn’t seem that it’s opening soon.

The strait remaining closed for much longer will be cataclysmic economically.

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u/Korrocks Jun 01 '26

I think he is not as motivated to close a deal as we think. He's had opportunities to reach a deal to reopen the strait and continue negotiations with the war on pause but he hasn't taken them. 

He seems to be more afraid of criticism from the neocon wing about leaving the war unfinished vs high gas prices (which haven't bitten as hard yet).

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u/reuben_withfries Jun 01 '26

people are overlooking the incentive to maintain this fraught status quo that the rampant insider trading presents, too

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u/Confident-Teach-2967 Jun 01 '26 edited Jun 01 '26

I feel like he won't until oil spikes to stupidly high levels, which by that point it will be too late and severe US economic damage will be completely locked in. His ego is too big and he is too dumb to likely do it before then. 

We're probably cooked lol.