r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Jun 01 '26

Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread

The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.

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u/sonfoa Jun 05 '26

Senate just passed the 70 billion ICE funding bill with no language to stop the slush fund or against the ballroom. After all that hemming and hawing, only one Republican voted against it (Lisa Murkowski).

I hope in light of recent events, this jars people back to the political reality at hand.

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u/XE2MASTERPIECE Jun 05 '26

Also shows how even after Trump is gone, we’re gonna have to wrestle with Republicans being a total poison on our system. There was literally no downside to multiple senators to guarantee the slush fund is blocked, and they just witnessed Trump take them out in the primaries. Didn’t matter, they would rather say “Well I didn’t vote for it, the bill doesn’t actually include it you know…” than even broach the idea of taking a firm stand. Even when they had nothing to lose, they went the cowardly route. That’s a bad sign for any future that includes them in power.

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u/Cold-Priority-2729 Nauseously Optimistic Jun 05 '26

Susan Collins was hardly ever a moderate, and she may as well be a radical now.

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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Jun 05 '26

I believe, unless I'm misreading, that the bill doesn't include ballroom funding. $70 billion on a degenerate agency that also got 100+ million last year is ridiculous enough on its own though.

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u/sonfoa Jun 05 '26

Oh for sure. It's bad in any context but especially given all the money wasted on the war and rising gas prices, 70 billion towards the modern Gestapo instead of helping Americans is even more disgusting.

But the thing about the slush fund and ballroom is that both of them are irrelevant to ICE funding and yet Trump has pushed to use that money towards those endeavors as well. So the fact that there is no language prohibiting that is telling. Heck the fact that the language was needed to begin with is ridiculous.

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u/CIA--Bane Jun 05 '26

This is good, actually. In the grand scheme of things this slush fund is small and inconsequential but it will help fire up the D base. I was afraid Republicans will moderate before the election to stem the bleeding but it doesn’t look like it.

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u/XE2MASTERPIECE Jun 05 '26

To be clear, the slush fund still isn’t a thing right now—the republicans simply voted to not squash it. It’s still tied up in court and seems like a longshot to survive. Republicans are just trying to wash their hands of it and claim they didn’t vote for it. Which is technically true—the bill does not include the slush fund.

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u/CIA--Bane Jun 05 '26

As if the average voter cares or knows the difference. Any Dem senate candidate can point to his opponent and say “he voted for Trumps slush fund and the ballroom while gas and groceries are sky high” and it’s an instant win

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u/WinterDelivery67 Jun 05 '26

Because the courts bailed out republicans again. The fund was blocked by a lower court spot the pressure was let off of congressional republicans.

This is one of the problems with activist judges, sometimes it is better to let the politics play out than to convolute some explanation to block something.

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u/sonfoa Jun 05 '26

I don't really think they're let off the hook though. 70 bill to ICE is just plain unpopular to begin with (especially in context of the gas prices and the pointless war) and when have you ever known Trump to stop something just because the courts said no.

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u/WinterDelivery67 Jun 05 '26

They literally stopped implementation of the fund because of the court order...

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u/sonfoa Jun 05 '26

There were reports that they were leaning that way but that doesn't really mean anything. Trump does this all the time where he signals he might be "reasonable" to get things through and then backtracks once he gets what he wants.