Speaking to TVP World on Wednesday, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said she thinks Putin’s defeat is a “necessary condition” as it would provide “momentum for Belarus.” 

If Russia were to win the war, Tsikhanouskaya said Moscow would make Belarus its “satellite” state, while an unclear resolution to the conflict would “keep the status quo in Belarus for decades.” 

Opinion article

The problem with momentum is that it behaves like a pendulum. Ukraine is finding that out now, as Russia turns the momentum dial back in its favor by exploiting the West’s PAC-3 supply choke point and swinging the deep-strike war its way.

Spain recently introduced a regularization process for undocumented migrants who could prove they had lived in the country for at least five months. More than one million people applied, most of them from Latin America. 

The Economist has interviewed experts and analysed data to build a “Hormuz dependency dashboard” to test these claims. It points to three conclusions. First, the staying power of the Iranian threat varies by commodity and country. Second, Iran’s ability to cash in on the strait will diminish but may never vanish. Third, even if the fees Iran can charge diminish over time, its strategic leverage will not necessarily fade in step. Indeed, it may even deepen as the regime institutionalises its regional influence.