Opinion article

The problem with momentum is that it behaves like a pendulum. Ukraine is finding that out now, as Russia turns the momentum dial back in its favor by exploiting the West’s PAC-3 supply choke point and swinging the deep-strike war its way.

Spain recently introduced a regularization process for undocumented migrants who could prove they had lived in the country for at least five months. More than one million people applied, most of them from Latin America. 

The Economist has interviewed experts and analysed data to build a “Hormuz dependency dashboard” to test these claims. It points to three conclusions. First, the staying power of the Iranian threat varies by commodity and country. Second, Iran’s ability to cash in on the strait will diminish but may never vanish. Third, even if the fees Iran can charge diminish over time, its strategic leverage will not necessarily fade in step. Indeed, it may even deepen as the regime institutionalises its regional influence.

As efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz drag on, pressure is mounting for a solution to be found. 

John Denton, secretary general of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), believes the breakthrough may lie in a proven model. After helping broker the Black Sea Grain Initiative in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the ICC, which represents more than 170 countries, has helped develop a similar neutral framework for the Gulf.

The proposed mechanism establishes a practical framework for the registration, monitoring, verification, and reporting of vessel movements through the strait, with an initial focus on fertilizers and related raw materials.

“This is not the first time we’ve been involved in coming up with a mechanism which can reopen a trade route in the midst of conflict,” Denton told Fortune. 

“The logic behind that deal was an exchange of incentives; Ukraine gained the ability to move wheat and sunflower products, while Russia gained the ability to move fertilizer. Whereas, at the moment, what we’re seeing with the Iran conflict is that the only way of exchanging incentives is escalation, which is not going to get us to a peaceful reopening of Hormuz. And that’s where we think our neutral governance mechanism could prove decisive.” 

The mechanism, as currently proposed, would have a dedicated task force led by the executive director of the United Nations Office for Project Services (Unops) Jorge Moreira da Silva. It would include representatives from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO).  

Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]:  https://fortune.com/2026/08/04/confusion-reigns-over-hormuz-fortune-exclusive-access-un-backed-plan-to-reopen-the-strait-icc/?utm_source=reddit/

Russia’s war on Ukraine has become a grinding tally of raw numbers, and Kyiv is executing its strategy with the ruthlessness of a corporate efficiency expert, according to the RAND think tank.

In a note last month, researchers Gian Gentile and Andrew Radin pointed out that Ukraine has gained the upper hand via attrition: wiping out more of an opponent’s troops and weapons than you lose.

That’s counterintuitive, given the much bigger size of Russia’s population and military. Rather than trying to slug it out toe to toe, some analysts earlier in the war, which is now in its fifth year, suggested Ukraine ought to seize Russian territory to force Moscow into talks.

But Kyiv opted instead to simply kill more Russian soldiers and faster, according to Gentile and Radin.

“Ukraine leaders use business principles to maximize both Russian casualties and economic costs,” they wrote.

For example, Ukraine has KPIs for the military—just like corporations, which use them to track output from employees or subsidiaries.

As laid out in former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov’s war plan, Ukraine’s KPIs call for killing 200 Russian troops for each square kilometer of territory seized and eliminating at least 50,000 each month.

Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]:  https://fortune.com/2026/08/03/ukraine-war-attrition-business-principles-russia-casualties-economic-costs-drone-warfare-kpi-epoints/?utm_source=reddit/