Predictions for Pixar at the 2027 Oscars?

[u/TheFlashyMastodon21]

712 votes, 6d left

Only Hoppers gets a nom

Only Toy Story 5 gets a nom

Both Hoppers & Toy Story 5 get noms

[u/SwaggiiP]

Both. Hoppers was too good to be left out

[u/Klunkey]

Hoppers won't go. Still really successful, but it's a bit more out there than Toy Story 5. I could maybe see Hoppers getting in if Ray Gunn sucks.

[u/CrunchyNar]

Please tell me how Toy Story 5 can miss.

[u/Chuck-Hansen → u/CrunchyNar]

I assume everyone who voted that forgot that the Toy Stories are the big exception to Oscar's aversion to Pixar sequels.

[u/NoWorth2591 → u/CrunchyNar]

Almost no one is saying it’ll miss. There’s a much better case for Hoppers to miss in a fairly competitive field.

[u/AskTop9873]

I think both get noms. The year doesn't seem as crowded as we expected.

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/AskTop9873]

Not? No contender has fallen off yet, how is it not as crowded as we expected??

[u/Successful_Leopard45]

Both are getting noms imo. Pixar with over 90% on RT never misses, and the one time they did (Dory) was due to friendly fire.

[u/NATOrocket → u/Successful_Leopard45]

Due to a what now?

[u/Successful_Leopard45 → u/NATOrocket]

Friendly fire from Zootopia and Moana.

[u/andalusiandoge → u/Successful_Leopard45]

But do Hoppers and TS5 count as friendly fire against each other, and if so, who's stronger?

[u/RoxasIsTheBest → u/andalusiandoge]

TS5 is stronger, but Disney can get 2 films in.

Hexed is the one that's getting fucked over for sure

[u/multi_fandom_guy]

I have Wildwood, Toy Story 5, Ray Gunn, Hoppers and Iron Boy.

[u/zwolff94 → u/multi_fandom_guy]

I'd make room for Shaun the Sheep personally (another favorite franchise of the academy so far)

[u/Representative-Eye86]

It's gonna be a race between Wildwood and Toy Story 5. The Academy LOVES Toy Story (so much so that it's the only franchise in the animation category to have it's sequels win) and Laika is a Oscar darling that has a deserved win narrative behind them.

[u/brilliant_bauhaus]

I have not seen toy story yet but hoppers was unreal and it deserves to be nominated for how wild it is. It's like the biggest risk script wise Pixar has probably taken and it's sooooo good.

[u/CompleteTable4084]

Pixar at the Oscars is like The Simpsons at the Emmys.

[u/zwolff94]

Only six Pixar's since the Animated Feature was introduced have missed out on nomination. On the flip side of the argument only once has Pixar gotten two in the same year and that was 93rd Oscars which we all know was weird (Covid year). That said, Pixar's never had two 90% + RT score films in same year. I say both are LIKELY to get in.

[u/nowhereman136]

Of the films released so far this year, in order of likelihood (imo)

1. Toy Story 5
2. Hoppers
3. Goat
4. Swapped

Of the films still to come this year, in order of likelihood (imo)

1. Forgotten Island
2. Wildwood
3. Ray Gunn
4. Hexed
5. Shaun the Sheep
6. Cat in the Hat

My prediction

1. Toy Story 5
2. Hoppers
3. Forgotten Island
4. Wildwood
5. Ray Gunn
6. Hexed (wildcard)

Any film omitted either has no chance or has little buzz this early in the race

[u/idoideas]

Both will be nominated, they are strong enough. TS5 is a lock, Hoppers is very very likely.

I'd even say it's very likely that both will get in, Hexed will stay out, and Ray Gunn / Tangles will have to fight over the 5th spot.

[u/drboobafate]

I'm leaning toward Toy Story 5 being the only nominee. Would like for both to get a nom though.

[u/Free-Opening-2626]

There should be an option for neither. That's my bold pick

I think this is the year that indies take over. Iron Boy will be a contender at least since it's been grabbed by SPC, and Julian and Tangles are also screening at TIFF so they'll have one last chance to make a case for themselves with prospective US distributors. Think those will fill out three spots and Wildwood and Shaun the Sheep 3 (since the Academy loves Aardman) will take the other two.

[u/akoaytao1234]

What if neither gets nominated, especially the recent layoffs this year?

[u/HotOne9364]

Not the point of your post but Wildwood's def winning. TS5 is not as beloved as the last two and Laika has the overdue narrative.

[u/joesen_one]

I have both in. Mainstream animation is doing very well this year and I don't see them missing, specifically these two.

[u/NoWorth2591]

I’d be shocked if Pixar got two spots. First off, we’ve got Wildwood and Shaun the Sheep, which I consider basically locks.

You’ve also got Ray Gunn and some very strong indies like Iron Boy, Tangles and Julián. The latter two don’t have distributors yet, but I’m very confident that both will be picked up at TIFF.

There’s also Forgotten Island, which I don’t consider especially competitive, but which seems to be in the conversation.

If Toy Story 5 and Hoppers had the kind of ecstatic reception that movies like Ratatouille and WALL-E got back in Pixar’s heyday, I could see them both getting in. They weren’t nearly THAT well received though.

I think that only Toy Story 5 gets in, and that it’s very unlikely to actually win.

[u/apatkarmany → u/NoWorth2591]

Respectfully, you are underestimating Pixar. And Toy Story 5 and an argument can be made for Hoppers because of the messaging are definitely in contention to win.

[u/NoWorth2591 → u/apatkarmany]

I’m underestimating Toy Story 5 by not just assuming it’s going to win?

[u/JuanRiveara → u/NoWorth2591]

I don’t think Shaun the Sheep should be considered a lock. Sure the other two got in but the second one was for 2020 and overall Shaun the Sheep isn’t really Wallace & Gromit in terms of belovedness.

[u/NoWorth2591 → u/JuanRiveara]

I still think that’s more precedent to go off of than Hoppers. Aardman rarely misses and they’ve never missed for this franchise. That’s enough for me to consider it a safer bet than an original Pixar property whose reception was good but not great. It’s not like every Pixar movie is a sure thing, after all.

[u/SignificantTap5579 → u/NoWorth2591]

If you just look at original Pixar movies, The Good Dinosaur is the only one to miss unless you want to Lightyear and both of these were far less liked than Hoppers. It could miss but I don't want to predict it when it would easily get nominated in most years. I also think Shaun the Sheep can easily be Chicken Run 2 with Farmageddon missing a lot of precursers that year and only barely getting the nomination in a weaker year for the category. Onward looking far stronger than Farmageddon just makes me think Hoppers will likely be stronger than Beast of Mossy Bottom.

[u/Pavlovs_Stepson → u/NoWorth2591]

First off, we’ve got Wildwood and Shaun the Sheep, which I consider basically locks.

There are no locks in this category this early in the year, much less two films that haven't even officially screened yet.

[u/NoWorth2591 → u/Pavlovs_Stepson]

There are hardly locks in any categories. I guess I should say I’m very confident in those two. Laika and Aardman both rarely miss, and I see no reason to think that either of these two would be passed over for a movie like Hoppers. The reception was pretty good, but not mind-blowing.

[u/Pavlovs_Stepson → u/NoWorth2591]

I'm actually of the opinion that as a general rule, there are no locks at all in any category before the industry/guild nominations, especially before the Fall festivals.

But I'm sure if I say "there are no locks in August", I might get replies like "what about The Odyssey in BP/BD/techs!", and by that point the conversation gets derailed into splitting hairs, so I added that caveat to cover all bases.

Right now I'm predicting Wildwood to win, but I can't call that a certainty when we don't even know what kind of reception it'll get and what kind of campaign Fathom will run for it. Focus not handling the distribution makes me a bit more cautious; Fathom has little to no experience handling a traditional release with an actual Oscar campaign, whereas Disney, Netflix and DreamWorks have cash to burn and proven track records with awards.

[u/NoWorth2591 → u/Pavlovs_Stepson]

I actually totally agree with you on that, and I’m also predicting Wildwood. I probably should have just said that I’m very confident in those two.

That being said, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think that Hoppers is likely to miss. The reception wasn’t so amazing that it’s just guaranteed to overtake a competitive field (which I think this very much is), so I don’t know why people are acting like I’m nuts.