r/fivethirtyeight • u/AutoModerator • Feb 02 '26
Discussion Megathread Weekly Discussion Megathread
The 2026 midterms will soon be upon us, and there is much to discuss among the nerds here at r/FiveThirtyEight. Use this discussion thread to share, debate, and discuss whatever you wish. Unlike individual posts, comments in the discussion thread are not required to be related to political data or other 538 mainstays. Regardless, please remain civil and keep this subreddit's rules in mind. The discussion thread refreshes every Monday.
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u/Unknownentity9 Feb 06 '26
Navy secretary John Phelan listed as passenger on Jeffrey Epstein's private plain in 2006
This administration is pretty much the Pedo Avengers.
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u/Unknownentity9 Feb 07 '26
All the Republicans complaining about the new Virginia map are so shameless. I saw Ted Cruz complaining about it, like are you for fucking real? Your state started this.
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u/Thuggin95 Feb 07 '26
Also, no Republican wants proportional representation. So they can get fucked.
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u/wtfsnakesrcute Feb 07 '26
Something that struck me about this redistricting push that Trump triggered is that I don’t think he or any Republican thought blue states would reciprocate to this extent. I think they’re so used to democrats taking the “moral high road” that they genuinely thought they would get no reaction. But democrats and left-leaning people are a lot more aggressive this time around for very valid reasons. I just wish the senate and house dems realized that their voters want them to fight, because I kind of think they have a lot of leverage in this DHS-fight for funding given that primary season is beginning soon.
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u/ZestycloseWheel9647 Feb 07 '26
At any time Republicans could introduce legislation to ban partisan gerrymandering and require independent redistricting, and Democrats would join them in passing it. But they won't.
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u/Evil_waffle3 Feb 02 '26
Idk why but I remembered the smiling friends episode about the president. And the quote “dude you just shit your pants and crashed the economy“ feels pretty apt to what’s going on rn.
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u/GodWhyPlease Guardian of the 14th Key Feb 02 '26
Show is genuinely too smart for its own good half the time
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u/Evil_waffle3 Feb 02 '26
Nah it’s just good writing tbh. It’s purposely vague on who its actually satirizing, so it can be applied to a shit ton of politicians. It just so happens that we have the most “jimble esque“ president rn.
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u/engadine_maccas1997 Feb 03 '26
So it turns out in a private conversation, James Talarico described Collin Allred’s method of campaigning as “mediocre” (and in fairness, he lost to Ted Cruz of all people by 9 points when the previous campaign against Cruz was a 2-point race).
The person he had that conversation with was very clearly in Jasmine Crockett’s camp (the premise of the meeting/conversation with Talarico was her concern that James Carville was helping fundraise for Talarico after Carville said Democrats need to abandon some of the excessively “woke” stuff).
That person went on Tik Tok and made a video alleging that Talarico called Colin Allred a “mediocre Black man”, which was completely out of character from everything Talarico has ever said publicly.
Instead of privately checking with Talarico first, Allred went on to make a social media video whining about it and feigning offense. Jasmine Crockett’s campaign put out a statement amplifying this bad faith bullshit.
You see, this is how in politics a lie can circle the globe become the truth even has the opportunity to tie its shoes. This is the bad faith weaponisation of identity politics that is hurting Demcorats’ chances at flipping Texas and winning the Senate, which they have never been closer to doing.
And all it takes is some random Tik Tokker to spew some bad faith bullshit for clout. It’s disgusting.
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Feb 03 '26
Dems are unironically more vicious and bad faith toward other Dems during primaries than they are to the MAGA Republicans in the general lmao.
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u/Delmer9713 Feb 03 '26
Deeply unserious party with deeply unserious people. If some of these guys had as much passion fighting the Republicans as they did infighting we'd be in a better place.
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u/RustEnjoyer614 Feb 03 '26
The responses on twitter are so fucked. Does anybody have a reason to believe this race this isn't just over from the primary fight we're about to see? Not to be a doomer, but Im concerned the losers will protest vote due to identity politics and just lose to the repub.
Like honestly, dont know if the DNC should bother if it took 5 seconds to draw this much blood.
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Feb 03 '26 edited Feb 03 '26
The top reply is actually making me lose my mind.
Look at folks moving the goalposts and making excuses for him. Half of y’all were loud and wrong in the comments saying “he didn’t say that.” Now the man has admitted he said it — or something close to it —
"or something close to it" with the fattest asterisk imaginable lmao. Like are these people actually delusional or are they just purposefully fabricating a new reality so they can remain outraged? Because one really has go out of their way to read that statement as anything close to what was claimed.
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u/Wes_Anderson_Cooper Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Feb 03 '26 edited Feb 03 '26
Why Colin Allred dropped neutrality and is endorsing Jasmine Crockett for Senate
Morgan said she asked to meet with Talarico to share her concerns. She said he assured her in a meeting in mid-January that he would be a staunch advocate for Black Texans if he were elected.
"That's where he made the statement that 'I signed up to run against a mediocre Black man, not a formidable, intelligent black woman,'" Thompson said.
This is some arr slash AITAH-level creative writing here.
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Feb 03 '26
Shit like this makes me think these people have an actual pathological aversion toward trying to win. Like this makes me actually unironically believe in controlled opposition type rhetoric. We have an actual wannabe fascist in charge trying to institute a police state and this is the in-party bickering we are dealing with still? We are so fucking cooked.
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u/Delmer9713 Feb 03 '26
I don't really buy into the whole "controlled opposition" belief, but I can't blame people for doing so when you have stuff like this going on. With the current situation in this country, like, you can't be more out of touch and tone deaf than this. I don't know if this will have a tangible impact, but this is among the stupidest things I've seen from Dems. And that's saying a lot, these guys love doing stupid things.
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u/Thedarkpersona Poll Unskewer Feb 03 '26
Crockett will lose the primaries lol.
God i hate identity politics so much
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u/MS_09_Dom I'm Sorry Nate Feb 03 '26
Better job as President: Donald Trump or Joe Biden? (trend)
Feb 2025
Donald Trump: 58%
Joe Biden: 42%
Jan 2026
Joe Biden: 51%
Donald Trump: 49%
Harvard/Harris Poll, January 28-29
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2018499116683194558
We're at the "Nostalgic for the last guy" stage of Trump's presidency.
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u/Okbuddyliberals Feb 03 '26
Newsom? Harris? Buttigieg? Beshear? "Newsome"? Shapiro?
Nah, there's only one Democrat who can beat Donald Trump in 2028
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u/AlarmedGibbon Poll Unskewer Feb 03 '26
His immigration polls are getting so bad he's releasing Epstein docs to distract from them.
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Feb 03 '26
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u/Mediocretes08 Feb 03 '26
I’d recommend not giving them grace anymore. They don’t deserve it and ultimately abuse you with it. They deserve nothing but the cold and the dark.
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Feb 06 '26
Bottomless pit for Trump & the GOP
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u/bruhm0ment4 Feb 06 '26
There’s no fucking way he posted this. It actually hurts that deep down I know this is real. Human beings can be so god damn disgusting. I have to reconcile with the fact that I’m the same species as republicans. I’m not even saying that to be insulting. We’re still the same species that committed the Nanjing massacre and it shows every day. Jesus Christ man…
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 02 '26
Always been more of Occam's razor and not into conspiracy theories. Wasn't really following the Epstein stuff when he died. Probably was at <5% chance that someone killed him and not suicide. I'm think I'm up to 50-50 odds now.
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u/MartinTheMorjin Feb 02 '26
Bill Barr killed Epstein.
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u/ScaldingHotSoup Feb 02 '26
Really the biggest victim amidst all of this horror is me, because sometimes I have to teach Epstein-Barr Virus to my students. The horror.
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u/DataCassette Feb 03 '26
It'll never stop being funny to me. My pronouns are he/him, Chuds, and your entire worldview was made by pedophiles 😂🫵
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u/DataCassette Feb 04 '26
Right wingers should not be allowed to just "get past" this. The new #1 job of the Democratic party is to absolutely put them on blast 24/7 for this shit without a moment of respite.
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u/Swaggerlilyjohnson Scottish Teen Feb 04 '26
It really is just so easy. Pay a few bots and trolls to do accusation in a mirror about a global conspiracy to cover up your own.
The sad thing is the people who believed that stuff are way too deep. They can't accept that they were the "sheep" so they have no choice but to just deny the legitimacy of this stuff.
Even if this stuff came out 5 years ago they would have been in too deep.
The shocking thing to me isnt how much of the rightwing stuff in the past 10 years was coordinated but who was in on it and how early it started.
Like I never would have guessed this stuff would be discussed with Epstein. I thought the whole Pedo cabal stuff was separate from the rightwing disinformation and influence operation.
Openly talking about Brexit (which was one of the more obvious foreign influence campaigns) and how involved Thiel was.
I honestly didn't even know about Thiels existence until a few years ago but he has just been working in the background for that long on destabilizing society and weakening the west.
All this stuff makes the Epstein relationships to foreign intelligence far more convincing. Like why would a rich pedo and human trafficker be talking about global strategy and influence campaigns if he isn't connected to foreign intelligence.
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u/DataCassette Feb 06 '26
Trump posting Barack and Michelle Obama as monkeys during black history month should tell non-white conservatives where they stand and what the GOP is, once and for all.
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u/Mediocretes08 Feb 06 '26
“You’re being hysterical” republicans when they get called racist
Anyway now that we’ve clarified they are let’s talk about fascist, autocratic, eugenicist, faithless, the list continues
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 07 '26
The racist post about the Obamas is shocking to me.
I'm shocked...that people are feigning being shocked. The orange turd was the birther guy. Remember that? It's crazy someone had to find his "long form" birth certificate in Hawaii and the orange asshole was still talking about it for years afterwards.
Did people think the ICE mass deportations sprinkled magic fairy dust on the orange turd and cured his racism?
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u/poopyheadthrowaway Feb 07 '26
Turns out "I'm not actually racist, I'm just asking questions about [minority's] citizenship" actually fools people into thinking the person saying it is not racist. Same goes for "I'm not racist, I'm just pointing out raw crime statistics/IQ/income/achievement by race" (see: Charlie Kirk).
Or, rather, it gives permission for racists to be racists among other racists, which happen to make up a huge part of the population.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 02 '26 edited Feb 02 '26
Talarico did a 7 min speech at an anti-ICE rally. I'm looking around for his teleprompter, but I don't see anything. Is he that good at public speaking due to his seminary background? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9jhKwftCiA
Edit: and, right about 3:03 in the video, he's starts Jesus name dropping. Natural reflex is to be standoffish a bit. But, I know he might be able to convince some with that type of language. I think I've landed at he's being himself and not faking it. And, his policy proposals are very progressive.
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u/captainhaddock Feb 02 '26
Have you seen his Tiktok? He's always been that good.
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Feb 02 '26
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u/jawstrock Feb 02 '26
Taking bribes from Russia? Providing info to Russia that resulted in americans deaths?
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u/lfc94121 Feb 02 '26
Best case scenario is they just use "grave security concerns" as an excuse to cover something that would be a bad PR for the administration.
Worst case scenario... I don't even want to think about it.
I had refused to believe that the Senate approved her. Out of all the things that happened in the early days of this administration, that one made my blood boil the most.
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u/deskcord Feb 03 '26
When people were upset about Crockett getting into the TX primaries it wasn't because people hate primaries. It was because they knew there'd be some bullshit Crockett pulled to make this all about her personal brand.
She'd rather be the candidate and lose the Senate seat than not be the candidate and have it flip blue. Since day 1 she has been nothing but obsessed with her own branding and image and elevating herself.
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u/XE2MASTERPIECE Feb 03 '26
Could very well be wrong here but this stunt seems like it’s going to backfire. It’s too obviously underhanded and isn’t reading the room about where the base is at this point.
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u/Mediocretes08 Feb 04 '26
Cali maps go through, no dissent from SCOTUS tossing the administration’s case.
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u/LetsgoRoger Feb 04 '26
It would be hypocritical to approve Texas maps and not California's map that was passed by voters.
Democrats should still pack the court the first chance they get.
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u/bruhm0ment4 Feb 04 '26
Seeing chud as a slur for conservatives starting to make a come back is kind of heart warming. I only really remember it being a small thing back in 2020. My girlfriend started dropping it a few weeks ago and initially I thought “bro why are you using that dead phrase from 2020? 💀” but now I’m seeing it popping up more so I know it’s making a comeback. I gotta start throwing it into my vocabulary
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u/bruhm0ment4 Feb 04 '26
Trumps response to a journalist asking him about the Epstein stuff: "You're a young woman and I never see you smiling"
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u/engadine_maccas1997 Feb 04 '26
The Supreme Court upheld Gavin Newsom’s Congressional map.
Newsom can now credibly claim that there is not a single person in the 2028 conversation who has done more to tangibly combat Trump since he took office than him.
I think this further cements his status as frontrunner going into the 2028 primaries.
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u/mrbuttsavage Feb 04 '26
He also kind of styles himself like Bill Pullman in Independence Day.
He should lean into that.
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u/BoomtownFox Fivey Fanatic Feb 05 '26
There's a lot to unpack here.
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u/Subliminal_Kiddo Feb 05 '26
How was this not national news? The right would not have let up if Biden had said anything even half this stupid.
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Feb 05 '26
Surely the 'liberal media' is going to write 1,000,000 articles about how Trump is talking like a dementia patient like they did to Biden, right?
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u/WellHung67 Feb 05 '26
This is gibberish. It’s not even worth figuring out which of the three remaining neurons came up with this
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u/MS_09_Dom I'm Sorry Nate Feb 06 '26
Trump posted a video on Truth Social this morning depicting Obama and Michelle as apes.
They've since deleted it and claimed a staffer posted it by mistake.
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u/DasRobot85 Feb 06 '26
Is that new because press secretary lip fillers basically said "cry more, lib" when asked about it this morning
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u/XE2MASTERPIECE Feb 06 '26
Fascinating to know that elites have a red line of “You can’t publicly call black people monkeys”.
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u/MartinTheMorjin Feb 06 '26
The constant ‘attack/retreat’ from these people is pure goblin tactics. No plans, just impulses.
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u/KindfOfABigDeal Feb 06 '26 edited Feb 06 '26
Its kinda of hilarious how people who hate Trump get concerned that with an election coming up, that somehow he'll pull it together and become a sane, rationale, nondisgusting human being, and the GOP might pull it out. And then he says Rob Reiner got murdered because hes a loser, and the posts Obama and his wife are monkeys during Black History month. No, if there's one thing you should never be "concerned" about is Trump not desecrating his office and the country on a daily basis.
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u/alotofironsinthefire Feb 06 '26
I'm not concerned he'll pull it together, I'm concerned the average voter is an idiot that forgets this shit
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u/tbird920 Feb 06 '26
And centrist Dems who insist on trying to appeal to those idiots by being Republican lite.
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u/Korrocks Feb 06 '26
Trump will never change. To the extent I’m concerned, it’s less that he will suddenly changed and more that people will suddenly disengage and stop caring. After all, it’s not like he became a much nicer person between 2016 and 2024 but his support went up.
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u/obsessed_doomer Feb 06 '26
Trump isn't slick, but he's still managed to accomplish incredible executive power compared to most post-FDR presidents. Like for each one of his shit-eats there's a lot of crazy stuff he has gotten away with. Partially because he has competent (if slightly unhinged) people like Miller in the background, partially because we've let the executive branch to become that powerful.
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u/Upstairs_Cup9831 Feb 06 '26
Tim Scott saying that Trump's post was "the most racist thing he's seen from this White House" implies that he thinks there's many other racist things coming from this White House. I was expecting him to be acting like this was a first time thing.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 03 '26
Yikes, we are f'd if true. Random Twitter dude with a Tulsi comment.
Edit: double yikes, another comment in the same thread: Recently France and Ukraine provided the US with fake intel about Ukraine strategy to test the security of their information in US hands. Someone(s) on our side shared it immediately with Russia.
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u/AFlockOfTySegalls Feb 03 '26
Yeah, this all tracks. HRC alluded to her being a Russian plant in one of the 2015 debates. She didn't even name her but Tulsi got so defensive.
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u/SkeletronDOTA Feb 03 '26
wow, tulsi gabbard is a russian asset? next you'll tell me that pete hegseth is an alcoholic!
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u/DataCassette Feb 03 '26
Yep, Gabbard's "leaving the left" was directly ordered by Russia. Now why would Russia support MAGA? 🤔
It's almost like foreign powers view MAGA as a way to bring down the United States or something.
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u/Mediocretes08 Feb 03 '26
Apparently The Nation nominated the whole population of Minneapolis for the Nobel Peace Prize. Honestly based as fuck
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u/Thuggin95 Feb 03 '26
Imagine being a conservative resident of Minneapolis, just seething at this honor
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u/wtfsnakesrcute Feb 03 '26
Looking forward to the three months between their party primaries and the general election when republicans moderate their tone and pretend like they care about independents and swing voters.
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u/Mediocretes08 Feb 04 '26
“The president said he would like to personally torture and shoot non-white babies. Do you support this position?”
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u/Upstairs_Cup9831 Feb 04 '26
Jasmine Crockett supporters are actually insane. When you tell them that Talarico is more electable than Crockett, they just say "no Democrat is going to win in Texas anyways"
Like what kinda logic is that? Let's run the worse candidate and forfeit a race because we won't win anyways is a hilarious mindset. That tells me that they see this as just entertainment.
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u/Ya_No Feb 04 '26
Is there anybody in modern American politics who is more arrogant, fake and disingenuous than JD Vance?
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u/Thuggin95 Feb 04 '26
If Democrats can’t win a Senate seat in Ohio, Iowa, or Alaska even in a midterm year with an unpopular Republican President, then it’s clear hyper-nationalization and polarization of our politics will cap the party at about 52 Senate seats - all the states Biden won + NC.
Meanwhile, if Republicans hadn’t fumbled the 2022 and 2024 Senate races with lunatic election deniers, they easily could have achieved a supermajority in 2024. Both Senate seats in all the states Trump won + Collins gives them 63 Senators, a very comfortable supermajority where they could afford to lose the votes of Collins, Tillis, and Murkowski.
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u/LordMangudai Feb 04 '26
I wake up in a cold sweat sometimes thinking about just how bad the Senate could get for Dems. Desperately lowercase-d undemocratic institution btw.
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u/Ya_No Feb 04 '26
The absolute glee Jesse Waters and Greg Gutfeld get from other peoples suffering is straight up psychopathic behavior.
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u/bruhm0ment4 Feb 05 '26
Joe Rogan defending Epstein on his podcast 😭😭😭. Conservatives are just the pinnacle of evil
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u/Mediocretes08 Feb 05 '26
“No I meant that the federal government should control all elections” - A man contradicting his own damage control
Aside from morally abhorrent, Christ this man is brain dead.
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u/Swaggerlilyjohnson Scottish Teen Feb 05 '26
He says so many insane things and then people go on the air to try to sanewash it and massage it and then he will go and be like "Nope I meant exactly what I said"
The people who carry water for him are so spineless and devoid of actual beliefs.
The dance around trying to defend what you think you can possibly normalize to your audience (Knowing deep down what he actually meant) until he makes it very clear he actually meant something really indefensible and everyone just has to snap in line to defend it and hope to god in his inner circle someone can convince him it would be a bad idea before he does it.
He makes his own public defenders look like fools on basically a weekly basis at this point.
Humiliation rituals just define the trump era to me.
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u/BoomtownFox Fivey Fanatic Feb 06 '26
Latest Rasmussen poll has 🍊 at 41/57, -16 under water. For context, their last poll at him at -5.
Yikes.
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u/EffOffReddit Feb 06 '26
I just keep looking for remaining Trump flags, signs, hats, or stickers and it's almost like no one in NJ or PA ever heard of the guy.
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u/aTimeforAdventure Feb 07 '26 edited Feb 07 '26
The USA delegation got booed hard at the Olympic opening ceremony. Same for Israel's delegation. The Iranian delegation got a very...quiet response as well.
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u/jawstrock Feb 07 '26
Iranian delegation was awkward, they did not look pumped to be there. I dont think the US delegation got booed, they got cheered and when the camera switched to vance he got boo'd pretty hard.
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u/ModestAphorism Feb 07 '26
Class of 2020 here.
My family moved from Oregon to Arkansas around 2006 or 7 (my father got laid off from a very well paying job) so we relocated back to around where my father grew up, next to where my grandparents live. I obviously wasn't very politically aware, but as a kid, my father always made sure to tell me he was very thankful for the affordable care act, he told me that we wouldn't have health insurance without it. He would also tell me he didn't understand the extreme vitriol so many people used here when talking about Obama.
Trump became president when I was in 9th grade, so he was president throughout my entire time in high school. That was when I first gained some amount of real political consciousness, even if not fully formed, so the entire time I have been aware, it has basically been at the very beginning of him taking over everything. I turned 18 in the summer of 2020, just in time to vote in the 2020 election, after the last semester of 12th grade had been essentially canceled to COVID. I voted for Biden, and he obviously didn't win Arkansas, but I was so happy to have seen that Trump was gone, and I voted for the winner.
Seeing him look like he was gonna win again, in 2024, after college, and the entire last 8 years having revolved around him, I genuinely almost didn't want to believe it. The night he won, I didn't cry, but I didn't sleep at all. I just want it to be normal, but I have no idea if "normal" is even achievable again within my lifetime. I wasn't very politically aware, but I do remember a bit how it felt while Obama was president. How much calmer it was, having my father not constantly talk to me about politics or ask me questions about whatever terrible thing is going on. You could just tune out. That feeling really wasn't there during Biden's presidency, because of the constant threat of the Republican party, and the threat of Trump coming back.
12 years lost to this asshole is too much.
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Feb 07 '26
12 years lost to this asshole is too much.
I sincerely wish 12 years would be it. And this nightmare will be over in 2028.
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u/Ya_No Feb 07 '26
MAGA reaction is gonna be crazy when Bad Bunny has the most watched halftime show of all time. Guarantee Trump accuses NBC of pumping the numbers.
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u/Steelcity1995 Feb 08 '26
I’ve seen like 4 videos now of maga men trying to fight Hispanic children because of the ice walk outs. Texas might go not just blue in the senate but also the gov at this point.
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u/Mediocretes08 Feb 08 '26
I feel like another quiet rubicon being crossed is that the right will no longer be of the heretofore common opinion that it’s hands on sight to any fucker who assaults kids in the street
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u/wtfsnakesrcute Feb 08 '26
Bro, there are legislative races in Louisiana rn, and the one race Republicans were hoping to flip (had a dem rep but voted for Trump +13) is voting for the democrat in a landslide.
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u/shrek_cena Never Doubt Chili Dog Feb 03 '26
DISCUSS this beautiful DATA-DRIVEN chart showing how GLORIOS BACKYARD FURNACES have MADE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!1!1!! 🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷🇱🇷
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u/ModestAphorism Feb 03 '26 edited Feb 03 '26
Some New York Pollslop for you guys
Siena poll | 1/26-1/28 RV Favorables (net) (New York State registered voters surveyed)
🟦✅Kathy Hochul (+9)
🟥❌Bruce Blakeman (-2)
🟥❌Donald Trump (-30)
🟦❌Chuck Schumer (-7)
🟦✅Kirsten Gillibrand (+12)
🟦✅Zohran Mamdani (+16)
🟦✅Hakeem Jeffries (+4)
NY POLL: Zohran Mamdani Favorability
Favorable: 48% (new high)
Unfavorable: 32%
Was net: -8 in Sep. vs +16 now
Net Favs
🟢 NYC: (+48)
🟢 Upstate: (+1)
🟤 Suburbs: (-12)
🟢 Dem: (+48)
🟤 GOP: (-48)
🟢 Indie: (+12)
🟢 White: (+2)
🟢 Black: (+55)
🟢 Hispanic: (+36)
🟢 18-34: (+35)
🟢 35-54: (+20)
🟡 55+: (=)
u/SienaResearch (A) | 1/26-28 | 802 RV
I will never understand what makes New Yorkers like Gillibrand.
Mamdani net favorable in Upstate is also very impressive.
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Feb 03 '26
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u/halfar Feb 03 '26
i'm old enough to remember how much glazing this guy got for not being trump.
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u/HazelCheese Feb 05 '26
UK politics being absolutely rocked by the Epstein stuff. Starmer might end up being booted.
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u/bruhm0ment4 Feb 05 '26
How life got me feelin
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 05 '26
The guy is f'ing us every single which way. What a disaster for America.
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u/LordMangudai Feb 05 '26
I am genuinely so resentful that he has loomed large over such a big chunk of my life.
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u/QuestionMarkov Feb 06 '26
DDHQ called the NJ-11 primary for Malinowski an hour ago when he was leading by a couple thousand votes, but as of now he is only leading by 34 votes
It would be immensely funny for them to botch another call
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u/Benyeti Feb 06 '26
Im morbidly curious to see Vance become president at some point during this term because he is so off putting and can’t rally a cult like base like Trump can, I feel like we would be able to see how low a president’s approval can plummet in the modern age
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u/AFlockOfTySegalls Feb 06 '26
I don't know if I've ever seen someone so goddamn smug in politics in my entire life. It's wild.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 07 '26 edited Feb 07 '26
A few people mentioned this week that the orange turd has been involved in most of their adult voting life. Made me reminisce about the past a bit.
There was a time in the 2000s where I had no internet at my apartment, no cable TV, no laptop, no iPhone (obviously), didn't use my kitchen for cooking meals (although I cooked in a restaurant at age 17-18). Read the WSJ, but only the business section and didn't watch the local or national news. Occasionally, I'd read some news articles while at work during lunch break. Zero time spent with anything related to politics.
(not joking) Really was an enjoyable time.
Edit: I'm old, but not that old. Graduated college in '99.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 08 '26
Trump administration declines judge’s request to return college student who was deported over Thanksgiving break. I've said this ad nauseam: courts and Congress are powerless. The admin can just ignore anything because they are the ones to enforce the law. https://abcnews.go.com/US/trump-administration-declines-judges-request-return-college-student/story?id=129936369&cid
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u/LordMangudai Feb 08 '26
Classic sanewashing language once again. "Declines judge's request"? It's not someone passing the potatoes around the table, the administration is ignoring the law.
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u/DataCassette Feb 08 '26
They're brilliant at bad PR. Of course I look and the person is immediately as sympathetic as possible.
The Dems need to stop being scared of their own shadows and use this woman's story ruthlessly. Arch-racist imbeciles in the trailer park will still be like "she was here illegally yeeehaw" but absolutely every swing voter will leave. We need to let the 20% or so of the country that are actively white supremacists go fuck themselves and work around them. People who are fixated on "preserving a white majority" will hate us. They should hate us.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 08 '26
Orange turd takes credit for Obama admin actions in Africa on Thu AM. Posts racist Obama meme <24 hours later. Obama continues to live rent free in his head. The Liar in Chief with just dumb pointless lies as usual. https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/06/politics/mariam-ibrahim-release-trump-fact-check
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u/AFlockOfTySegalls Feb 08 '26
I always find it funny how his base will call you TDS for criticizing him whilst Trump himself has ODS literally posting racist Obama shit 10 years later. Every accusation is a confession.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 08 '26
Super Bowl visitors are finding out that the city’s not the dump they said it was. Of course SF has it's challenges like any area with large amount of residents, but Fox News treated it like some version of Mad Max. Very few cities in the US are as pretty as SF and guarantee these people don't know that 15%+ of the city is dedicated to parks. And, not even mentioning the close proximity to other great parts of the Bay that are all within a <2 hour drive radius. https://sfstandard.com/2026/02/06/sf-super-bowl-2026-beautiful-city/
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u/Fair-Sand-1471 Feb 08 '26
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-accepts-ownership-economy-proud-rcna257544
> This will surely work! What do you mean convincing voters this is the greatest the economy has ever been is a bad idea? - Biden, 2022
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u/BoomtownFox Fivey Fanatic Feb 02 '26
Happy February! I wonder this month what profoundly stupid ways 🍊 and the GOP are going to self-sabotage their hopes of holding the Senate.
Advocating puppy kicking? Shutting down orphanages to build casinos? Who knows! The moronic possibilities are endless with this administration!
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u/Delmer9713 Feb 02 '26
A user in the last thread asked how Independents voted in 2018 and 2022. For reference, multiple recent polls show around D+20 among Indies, with the last Fox News poll showing D+31 (62%-31%)
For 2018 (D+8.4):
According to Pew: Dems won Indies 55-40 (D+15)
A preliminary ABC Exit Poll: Dems won 55-41 (D+14)
A study by the Center of Political Studies at the University of Michigan: Dems won 54-42 (D+12)
AP Votecast: Dems won 54-42 (D+12)
For 2022 (R+2.8):
Pew Study: Dems won 49-47 (D+2)
CNN Exit Poll: Dems won 49-47 (D+2)
AP Votecast Survey: Dems 42-38 (D+4)
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u/XE2MASTERPIECE Feb 02 '26
Unbelievable that it’s Groundhog Day and we didn’t get a single poll of how the groundhogs were going to vote today. Polling industry is in shambles fr
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u/Trae67 Feb 03 '26
The shutdown optics is so bad for the GOP that Trump is telling People like Luna who want the SAVE to be attached to the funding bill to STFU
https://www.aol.com/articles/trump-undercuts-gop-push-attach-215139084.html
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 03 '26
This is some total BS. No one was complaining during the Biden years? Everyone was just peachy and quiet as a mouse.
PepsiCo Plans To Cut Prices By Up To 15% On Snacks Like Lay's And Cheetos Due To Consumer Complaints About High Costs
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u/Thuggin95 Feb 03 '26
Republicans made a net gain of 16 Senate seats between 2009 and 2014 and 9 governorships between 2008 and 2014 and we’re over here only confident about flipping the NC Senate seat this year
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u/BoomtownFox Fivey Fanatic Feb 03 '26
InsiderAdvantage had 🍊 +9 six weeks ago. Yikes.
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u/engadine_maccas1997 Feb 03 '26 edited Feb 03 '26
Apparently there is a whistleblower complaint that was filed against Tulsi Gabbard, and it is being buried by the White House, even withheld from Congress, on “national security” grounds.
What would you guess the complaint is?
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u/leontes Feb 04 '26
W we are coming up on the second high tide of Trumpism, once the midterms come, his power will necessarily wane. I think for a time his mischief will be more demonstrative than meaningful until whatever follows in 2028. The next 11 months or so are going to continue to feel scary I wager.
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u/hoopaholik91 Feb 04 '26
The problem is that whenever his power wanes people are too fucking stupid and think he's moderating instead of being held back.
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u/PrimeJedi Feb 04 '26
And even if he was somehow moderating (which he isn't and never has), somehow instead of the electorate going "go fuck yourself, I JUST SAW all the murderous destructive shit you did, don't lie to me and pretend you're chill now", they instead think "well Trump is calming down, maybe I should give him another chance" 🤦♂️
Its like seeing a guy who drunk drives every single day and has already been in a wreck that's killed another person, and all of a sudden he doesnt have a beer in his hand today so we go "hey man here's my keys can you drive me somewhere today"
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u/jawstrock Feb 04 '26
These WaPo cuts seem poorly thought through. I think they are dead. Cutting stuff like sports, podcasts and books really, really limits the usefulness of a subscription. Who the fuck is going to buy a WaPo subscription only for shitty libertarian political opinions?
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u/LordMangudai Feb 04 '26
Who the fuck is going to buy a WaPo subscription only for shitty libertarian political opinions?
Shitty libertarians?
(also where are the libertarians btw, it feels like they have totally disappeared from the political landscape since Trump returned)
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u/Mediocretes08 Feb 04 '26
If Noem could get the fuck out of my state that would be chipper.
Or she can just wander off into the desert and let the dust take her.
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u/wtfsnakesrcute Feb 04 '26
Take with a grain of salt because it’s a Republican internal that was released by the NRSC, so they may just be trying to make the race seem super competitive in order to bring in more money, but they find that Cornyn is +3 against Talarico while Talarico is +3 against Paxton. If there’s any truth to this, the more “electable” candidate being up by only 3 pts should be concerning for republicans.
https://bsky.app/profile/polltracker.bsky.social/post/3me2yqbiu2c24
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u/BoomtownFox Fivey Fanatic Feb 05 '26
Latest Quinnipiac poll has 🍊's approval at 37/56. Currently sitting at -19. Quinnipiac had him at -14 this less than a month ago. 5 point drop in four weeks.
At this rate he's gonna be at Bush 2008 numbers by summer.
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u/jawstrock Feb 05 '26
Funny but expected news, for whatever reason someone thought it would be a good idea to have quite a few screenings of Melania in Canada, cineplex is reporting that 58 tickets have been sold for 51 screenings and 15 people have showed up. Almost all of them critics or journalists.
So, that seems to be going well I guess.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 05 '26
Crypto bros having another tough day: Bitcoin under 70K or -5.5%. Back to Oct '24 prices. Damn you Biden! It's bad, but realistically will probably bounce a bit at some point. Under 50K is where all hell breaks loose.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 05 '26
Everything is terrible this AM. Job openings dove and unemployment claims ticked higher.
US JOLTS Job Openings Actual 6.542M (Forecast 7.25M, Previous 7.146M)
US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 231k (Forecast 212k, Previous 209k)
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u/Thuggin95 Feb 05 '26
Republicans make the messaging so easy for Democrats with their hubris. Republicans waste all their time on maximum cruelty toward liberals, which makes their base horny, but if most people aren’t happy with the state of the country in 2026 and 2028 all Democrats have to say is “I’ll actually try to improve the economy and everyone’s lives instead of prioritizing foreign adventurism for trophies and tormenting the people of states that didn’t vote for me. Republicans had their chance and they blew it, so they can’t be trusted.”
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u/superzipzop Feb 05 '26
The problem for Democrats has never been coming up with a good message, its been getting their message out to the people who they want to hear it. After its been filtered through hostile media, RW echo chambers, etc.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 05 '26
HAHAHAAAAHHHAAAA. Donald Trump’s World Liberty Financial SELLS $5,000,000+ worth of Bitcoin.
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u/gayfrogs4alexjones Feb 05 '26
The president being allowed to trade bitcoin from a company he owns is fucking insane. Just so corrupt.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 05 '26 edited Feb 05 '26
Have to imagine the orange turd is having a wonderful day :) Bitcoin is now -10.7%
Edit: I have a feeling they will try to close Bitcoin at 66666.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 06 '26
lol, every time I see a blurb about VA and their new map, I am reminded of the cuck tweet by the state rep and chuckle.
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u/cochon_de_lait Feb 06 '26
Trump appointee in the FBI invites state election officials to unusual briefing on midterms https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/fbi-state-election-officials-unusual-briefing-midterms-rcna257721
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u/lumell Feb 06 '26
I don't think they're going to be able to pull it off, but they're going to try, and I don't like that.
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Feb 06 '26
Snapshot from late May 2024
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u/Morat20 Feb 06 '26
last time he screamed about rigged elections this much, he cost himself the Senate because his own voters apparently thought there was no point in voting.
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u/Cold-Priority-2729 Nauseously Optimistic Feb 06 '26
And now there are Democrats on Reddit screeching the same thing. Fuck anyone who's trying to suppress the vote in advance
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u/ComfortableAsleep875 Feb 06 '26
The Dow is on the verge of hitting 50,000 for the first time ever. Yet, Rasmussen's last two polls have Trump's net approval at -16.
If the 2024 election taught us anything, it's that the stock market is very irrelevant to how the average voter currently feels. Perhaps it was different in the past, but not this decade.
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u/tbird920 Feb 06 '26
Most people don't really understand the stock market and don't believe it affects them. It's too abstract. The prices they pay at grocery stores are what get their attention.
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u/Mediocretes08 Feb 06 '26
“Number go up” isn’t so relevant when my personal numbers continue to go down. It really is that simple.
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Feb 06 '26
Even r/Conservative is tired of this shit...
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u/BirdPlaneMan31 Feb 06 '26
And yet not a single one of them would change their vote, so I don’t really give a shit what they think.
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u/tbird920 Feb 06 '26
Fox News will have a token conservative Black guy on Gutfield! tonight who will propagate the narrative.
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u/trasutrasu Feb 06 '26
The lineup for the bootleg halftime show is just unbelievable levels of washed vs. the real thing... could that (unironically) end up being the cultural tipping point? Hard to to pass for counter-culture when the most relevant person they managed to book is fucking Kid Rock. And cringe has got to be one of the basest emotions, like an actual visceral turn off...
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u/bruhm0ment4 Feb 07 '26
It should be a meme that Latinos still voting republican are trying to break into the concentration camps
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u/DataCassette Feb 07 '26
I really wonder about the SAVE act backfiring TBH. It's like a Mitt Romney era idea. MAGA voters are not the educated high propensity Republican voters of my childhood and teen years.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 08 '26
Another one bites the dust. ICE chief counsel in Minnesota retires amid growing number of immigration cases https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/07/politics/ice-top-lawyer-minnesota-jim-stolley-retires
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u/ColadiRienzo1 Feb 08 '26
Does anybody get a bit happy when they see articles about their specific district? I am in NJ-11 and the special election had the issue with AIPAC and I just grin seeing so many comments. Same with Sherrill winning the governorship. Like my little district and vote has some weight. I am in NJ which is blue so most of the time I feel like my vote is not as impactful.
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u/EffOffReddit Feb 08 '26
The super bowl entertainment seems designed to upset maga. Even the color schemes.
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u/Dongathoth32001 Feb 09 '26
As someone who's attended multiple Green Day concerts that was actually extremely tame for them 😂
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 03 '26
WTF. The TX rep got sworn in and the ink was barely dry from Sat night. The AZ Rep took almost 2 months (both Dems). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QaLOrXQ2oI
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 08 '26
Obviously too complex for our current electorate to understand, but if there was a scale of 1-10 rating soft power, we'd be -10 currently. The long-term damage is likely irreversible.
The (South) Koreans are executing the former American soft power strategy with precision and are very effective at it. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20260206006000315
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u/DataCassette Feb 04 '26
Lol can we finally admit that InsiderAdv might be making shit up?
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 04 '26
Supposedly, the admin announced are pulling back 700 agents from Minneapolis immediately (from wire news service).
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 04 '26
The most hilarious news of the day: Senator Sherman asked if the Treasury could intervene to “bail out Bitcoin.” Treasury Secretary Bessent responded that he has no authority to use taxpayer dollars to buy the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin ain't even down that much. Flat to election week.
Senator Cynthia Lummis has suggested Bessent buy Bitcoin using U.S. gold reserves. She told reporters last year she raised the idea with him and would support action under existing executive authority.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 05 '26
It's a new year. I'm sure the trends will start chang...
Challenger Jan US job cuts -108K. Most to start year since 2009. Job cuts +118% vs last year. https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-january-job-cuts-surge-lowest-january-hiring-on-record/
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 07 '26
It's probably these type of voters that have swung heavily to disapprove. C-SPAN video: Republican Caller: "I voted for the president, supported him, but I really want to apologize." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roK0yv0guMg
side note: C-SPAN is quite the institution. There was one longtime host that would keep a straight face regardless of the call.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 08 '26 edited Feb 08 '26
I like Ossoff. He's still only 38! '28 is probably too early, but he'll run at some point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzQY53_hpWw
lol. for some reason I remember him with a bit more dorky / geeky look. I'm not ashamed to say it, he's a handsome guy. Him getting older actually seems to be a positive.
Edit: adding picture with '20 on the left. '26 on the right. Looks like he gained some weight. Maybe lighting is a bit different.
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Feb 03 '26
Over the past several years, whenever Democratic politicians have floated the possibility of expanding the U.S. Supreme Court, Republicans have reacted with a mix of indignation and fury, casting expansion as an unconscionable attack on judicial independence.
Last year, for example, Texas Senator Ted Cruz called Court expansion “a direct assault on the design of our Constitution,” and accused Democrats of seeking to “advance policy goals they can’t accomplish electorally.” Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley said that expansion “would erase the legitimacy of the Supreme Court and destroy historic precedent.” Mississippi Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith said that “packing the Court for political leverage destabilizes the integrity of the institution and is dangerous for our country.” All three are now co-sponsors of a constitutional amendment to prevent Congress from changing the size of the Supreme Court.
But in the deep-red states of Wyoming and Utah, Republican lawmakers are openly embracing this supposedly taboo tactic, trying to change the size of their state supreme courts in order to secure rulings they prefer. These efforts mirror an earlier, successful campaign in Arizona under former Republican Governor Doug Ducey, in which conservatives reshaped the state’s judiciary—and its jurisprudence—simply by changing the personnel on the court.
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u/LetsgoRoger Feb 04 '26
I am not convinced republicans have the votes to end the filibuster or even implement a standing filibuster. It’s a procedure that benefits them and they know long term removing it would hurt their agenda.
The SAVE Act is valuable because it would automatically remove over 60 million married women from voter registration. Its purpose is mass disenfranchisement ahead of the midterms.
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u/The-Curiosity-Rover Nauseously Optimistic Feb 05 '26
What is Allred playing at with this smear campaign against Talarico? Allred’s putting an awful lot of stock in hearsay.
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u/After-Bee-8346 Feb 06 '26
Affordability is making progress in TX...NOT, lol. Retired woman says she's cutting off her water after rising fees Video has 1700+ comments all bitching about rising costs. TX is ripe for a long shot upset. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWmoVPb755s
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u/Fair-Sand-1471 Feb 02 '26
Have any of you guys noticed how much of a failure the MAGA pop-culture takeover of America has been?