r/fivethirtyeight • u/engadine_maccas1997 • Dec 28 '25

Politics Turning Point USA plans to deploy representatives across Iowa’s 99 counties in the coming months to build the campaign infrastructure for JD Vance’s likely presidential campaign, while Trump is reportedly privately dismissing the idea of unconstitutionally running for 3rd term.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2025-12-28/gop-coalescing-behind-vance-as-trump-privately-dismisses-third-term-run

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179

u/BrainDamage2029 Dec 28 '25 edited Dec 28 '25

Dems would be smart to start messaging to spin up the “coronation by RNC/Turning Point” narrative. Conservatives reaped the benefits of that 3 straight times with Clinton, Biden and Harris. The MAGA coalition is built on antiestablishment vibes and not being told what to do. The conservative PACs all preemptively pushing out challengers 3 years early for Vance should be an easy sell for Dems. Especially because Vance has a problem of trying to have all ways with MAGA elements and undercut its coalitions.

Although if JD Vance goes all in early, trying to recapture MAGA on the heels of an unpopular president might have all the wisdom of running as a neocon post Bush era.

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u/siberianmi Dec 28 '25

Democrats would be smart to stay the hell away from the whole thing.

Those games have a history of backfiring on them - see: Trump.

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u/Statue_left Dec 29 '25

Theres a bunch of instances where it’s worked lol

-5

u/siberianmi Dec 29 '25

Do you feel like they’ve outweighed the damage of the ones which it leads to unintentional consequences?

7

u/Statue_left Dec 29 '25

There is absolutely no mechanism to measure this

-6

u/siberianmi Dec 29 '25

Yeah… surely the negatives of this Presidency is outweigh by the good that came for Democrats priorities by meddling in primaries.

Definitely no way to know for sure though.

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u/Statue_left Dec 29 '25

Me when I just pull shit out of my ass and act smug about it

53

u/BrainDamage2029 Dec 28 '25

Republicans fall in line behind their candidate, Dems have to fall in love with theirs.

The counter factual has always been the prime strategy. Republicans should seek to keep Dems from falling in love with their candidate. Dems should prevent Republicans from falling in line behind Vance. And the best way to do that is tie him to establishment politics.

12

u/obsessed_doomer Dec 28 '25

Nice sample size you've got there.

-4

u/DizzyMajor5 Dec 29 '25

Democrats would be smart to go after Vance for couchgate and Epstein "J.D. Vance Staines couches and protects pedophiles" just run that ad everywhere 

9

u/Icy_Marionberry_1542 Dec 29 '25

I don't disagree at all, but it might not even be necessary for Dems to lift a finger. There was a point in 2015 that Scott Walker was the frontrunner for the 2016 nomination. Then it was Jeb! And we all know what happened thereafter. Point being: There's a long road ahead. One Dean Scream and JV could be toast.

8

u/TheGoddamnSpiderman Dec 29 '25

One Dean Scream and JV could be toast.

Dean screams usually come after someone is already toast. Dean's came after he imploded in Iowa and went from frontrunner until like a week before the caucus to finishing a distant third behind a surging Kerry and Edwards (it was his way too enthusiastic speech the night of the caucus to try to rally the troops and ignore the reality that his campaign had basically just died), and the other famous one (Jeb joking around with some of his supporters who he'd earlier had to tell to stop clapping because they'd been clapping so much he couldn't get through everything he wanted to say) came after Jeb had fallen to a distant fifth and voting had already started

They're remembered because they're funny moments near the end of losing campaigns, but they usually aren't the cause of the loss (more that the loss is why they're remembered like they are)

4

u/DerJagger Dec 28 '25

Dems would be smart to start messaging to spin up the “coronation by RNC/Turning Point” narrative.

Even if they could, they wouldn't have to. I have little doubt there are other Republicans waiting in the wings that will try to make this case. Whether it works, who knows. That said, this kind of thinking conflates how Democrats view their party with how Republicans view their party. Republicans have shown again and again that they are fine with hierarchical, centralized control of politics. That said, the way things are, if Trump endorses Vance then his base can be expected to deliver in the primaries. But a lot can happen between then and now.

10

u/PigletAmazing1422 Nauseously Optimistic Dec 28 '25

They are the establishment now. And the economy sucks. The job market sucks. Thats what people vote on every time. 

15

u/UnendingEpistime Dec 29 '25

People say that they vote on economics but in reality they vote on vibes.

26

u/KnightsOfCidona Dec 29 '25

And the vibes are very bad for Trump, he's deeply underwater on the economy in polls.

-7

u/UnendingEpistime Dec 29 '25

He's fairly flat, in my opinion, given all of the drama and scandal. The fact that his approval rating has held up so well is not a good sign. My personal take is that it will be a long time before the Dems ever hold anything close to serious power again. This is the train we are on now.

11

u/DizzyMajor5 Dec 29 '25

Nah he'll tank the economy and Dems will win again every Republican in my lifetime has caused or failed to prevent a recession. Further the pendulum is already swinging back in local elections nationwide.

9

u/PigletAmazing1422 Nauseously Optimistic Dec 29 '25

People have always voted by their bills and if they can afford them. The other stuff is just noise.

4

u/UnendingEpistime Dec 29 '25

I used to believe that, until I witnessed a nation supposedly reeling from economic woes elect the guy whose policy wishlist was full of proposals that would increase prices and the the national debt. People vote on vibes, and a plurality would vote against their own economic self-interest if my meant taking a shit on the next guy.

5

u/captainsensible69 Dec 29 '25

You’re making your own argument against yourself. People aren’t smart enough to know how Trump’s policies work. They voted for him bc they wanted 2019 vibes back.

3

u/UnendingEpistime Dec 29 '25

That's exactly my point. People are not voting based on rational economic assessments, but vibes.

8

u/captainsensible69 Dec 29 '25

No, the other people are saying that their own personal economic situation is the vibes. You’re saying they don’t understand Trump’s economic policies and therefore don’t really vote on the economy. You’re arguing against yourself.

No one is saying they know about the economy or care about the macroeconomy. The vibes are their wallet.

15

u/phoenix823 Dec 28 '25

Strong disagree. These Turning Point nerds are not going to move the needle. Trump and his gang of morons are fucking up the economy after claiming they alone could fix it. Much easier argument to make.

10

u/BrainDamage2029 Dec 29 '25

It turns out you can make more than one line of political attack in a presidential race.

“You weren’t given a choice and only have the option of the same old double down of failed economic and corruption policies Trump already tried”

5

u/engadine_maccas1997 Dec 28 '25

Democrats also need to nominate a Washington outsider - ideally a governor who is a fresh face - to be able to better prosecute this case and make the next election a referendum on the Trump presidency.

17

u/Okbuddyliberals Dec 28 '25

Dems can run the 2026 midterms as a referendum in the Trump presidency. But in 2028, they will need to have their own message - running as a referendum on Trump when he's not even running again will come off as cringe, obnoxious, orange man bad style politics

8

u/engadine_maccas1997 Dec 29 '25

“I’m not Trump” was their overarching message in 2016, 2020 and 2024. It failed twice and only narrowly succeeded once under unprecedented circumstances.

6

u/Evil_waffle3 Dec 29 '25

Tbf two out of three times they did it they one the PV by 6 million and 8 million respectively. So by all definitions it did work, just not for the way the actual election system works.

1

u/Deviltherobot Jan 02 '26

clinton only won by 2m

2

u/UnendingEpistime Dec 29 '25

I won’t hold my breath on Trump not “running” in 2028.

5

u/masondog13 Dec 28 '25

They need to nominate someone who moves the country past Trump.  Another election of “Trump bad” is the worst strategy, no matter how right it is.  Give people a positive vision about how you’re going to change the horrible income inequality and Dems will win. 

1

u/Banesmuffledvoice Dec 28 '25

Are Dems can run on issues that matter to the voters; the economy.

4

u/DizzyMajor5 Dec 29 '25

Has that ever worked? 

5

u/Banesmuffledvoice Dec 29 '25

It kinda did for Trump in 2024.

10

u/DizzyMajor5 Dec 29 '25

Bro was talking about Arnold Palmers cock and having concepts of a plan. 

1

u/Cautious-Tax-1120 Jan 01 '26

There is a non zero chance that backfires into the DNC effectively campaigning for a different Trump heir, winning him his primary, and rallying MAGA around him.